Each MLB Team's Most Overrated Top Prospect Entering 2019

Few things generate better discussion during the long MLB offseason than the release of annual top-prospect lists.

On January 16, we took a look at each team's most underhyped prospect to shine some light on lesser-known youngsters who are capable of taking a major step forward.

Now it's time for the other end of the spectrum.

Whether it's an early pick who's failed to live up to his pedigree, a breakout star who isn't duplicating previous success or something else entirely, there's at least one prospect on each team who falls into the category of being overrated.

These guys are all still capable of developing into productive MLB players, but their current developmental standing doesn't match expectations and perception.

Included with each player is a look at where they checked in on the team and leaguewide rankings from Baseball America at the start of last season. The goal was to highlight players who were included among their organization's top 10 prospects in 2018 but have since slid down the rankings.

Baltimore Orioles: OF Austin Hays—No. 1 BAL, No. 22 MLB

After hitting .329/.365/.593 with 32 home runs in 98 games between High-A and Double-A in his first full professional season, Hays earned a late promotion to the majors.

That was expected to be a springboard to an everyday spot in the Baltimore outfield in 2018.

Instead, he spent the entire season in the minors, hitting a disappointing .235/.266/.410 in 75 games while battling shoulder and ankle injuries. He's now in danger of being overtaken by Yusniel Diaz, Cedric Mullins and Ryan McKenna for a long-term spot in the outfield.

     

Boston Red Sox: OF Cole Brannen—No. 5 BOS

The Red Sox gave Brannen an above-slot bonus of $1.3 million as the No. 63 overall pick in the 2017 draft.

The 20-year-old still has the raw athleticism to develop into an impact player, and his 70-grade speed serves him well in the outfield and on the bases. He clearly has a long way to go, though.

In 66 games between Low-A and Single-A last season, he hit a dismal .169/.261/.205 with just seven extra-base hits and a 31.1 percent strikeout rate.

      

New York Yankees: RHP Chance Adams—No. 4 NYY, No. 81 MLB

Adams put together lights-out seasons in 2016 (13-1, 2.33 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 144 K, 127.1 IP) and 2017 (15-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 135 K, 150.1 IP), and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors at this time last year.

However, offseason surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow resulted in a dip in velocity, as he went from sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball to working in the 91-93 mph range.

The result was a 4.78 ERA at Triple-A that was accompanied by a career-high 4.6 walks per nine innings. He now looks more like organizational depth than a future rotation staple.

     

Tampa Bay Rays: SS Lucius Fox—No. 7 TB

The Giants gave Fox a massive $6 million bonus as part of the 2015 international crop before trading him to the Rays at the deadline the following season in the Matt Duffy/Matt Moore swap.

There's never been any doubt that his glove will play at the next level, and his plus speed has resulted in 84 steals in three pro seasons. The trouble is his offensive game lacks punch, evidenced by a .692 OPS between High-A and Double-A last season.

Perhaps his strong showing in the Arizona Fall League—he hit .326/.437/.384 over 103 plate appearances—will be a turning point. For now, he's still more potential than production.

      

Toronto Blue Jays: OF Anthony Alford—No. 3 TOR, No. 60 MLB

Few prospects have a more tantalizing set of tools than Alford, who was a two-sport standout in college and a breakout prospect once he turned his full attention to the diamond.

However, since hitting .298/.398/.421 in his first season as a full-time baseball player in 2015, his development has stagnated, due in large part to his inability to stay healthy.

While he stayed upright long enough to play a career-high 112 games last season, the results were less than encouraging. He hit .238/.314/.339 with a 27.1 percent strikeout rate, and at 24 years old, he's in danger of falling behind the developmental curve.

Chicago White Sox: RHP Alec Hansen—No. 3 CWS, No. 57 MLB

Hansen was viewed as a candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2016 draft heading into his junior season at Oklahoma, but control issues and a demotion to the bullpen caused him to slip to the second round.

After posting a 2.39 ERA with an eye-popping 272 strikeouts in 196 innings over his first two pro seasons, he vaulted onto leaguewide top-100 lists and looked to be on the fast track to a spot in the White Sox rotation.

Unfortunately, 2018 was an unmitigated disaster. After missing the first two months of the season with forearm soreness, he returned to post a 6.31 ERA with more walks (59) than strikeouts (55) in 51.1 innings between High-A and Double-A. The command woes and high effort in his delivery could eventually land him in the bullpen.

      

Cleveland Indians: 1B Bobby Bradley—No. 3 CLE

Bradley has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past four seasons, racking up 114 long balls since being taken in the third round of the 2014 draft.

That said, it's looking less and less like he'll ever make enough consistent contact to tap into his plus power on a consistent basis.

Splitting last season between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .224/.308/.466 while striking out at a 27 percent clip. He's still only 22, but his prospect star is quickly dimming.

      

Detroit Tigers: LHP Gregory Soto—No. 10 DET

Soto was quietly one of the breakout prospects of 2017, going 12-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 124 innings between Single-A and High-A.

However, those impressive numbers came with a troubling 4.7 BB/9 rate, and free passes were an even bigger issue against upper-level competition in 2018.

While he struck out 115 batters in 113.1 innings, he also walked 70 and saw his ERA spike to 4.45 as a result. Unless his command improves drastically, a move to the bullpen appears inevitable. That said, there's always a place for a lefty with swing-and-miss stuff.

      

Kansas City Royals: LHP Foster Griffin—No. 9 KC

The No. 28 pick in the 2014 draft, Griffin had put together a largely disappointing pro career before seemingly turning a corner in 2017. In a return trip to High-A where he had struggled to a 6.23 ERA in 20 starts the previous season, he pitched well enough over the first two months to earn a quick promotion to Double-A.

He wrapped up the 2017 campaign at 15-7 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 141 strikeouts in 161.1 innings, earning a trip to the Futures Game and shooting up the organizational rankings.

Back at Double-A this past season, he was simply too hittable. He allowed a .315 opponents' batting average and 11.6 hits per nine innings while striking out just 117 batters in 152.2 innings. His middling stuff simply leaves no margin for error against upper-level competition.

     

Minnesota Twins: 2B/SS Nick Gordon—No. 8 MIN, No. 93 MLB

MLB.com wrote of Gordon at the start of last season: "He's more of a high floor than ceiling type and isn't far away from showing just what kind of solid everyday big leaguer he can be, on either side of second base."

He then hit an uninspired .248/.298/.355 with 37 extra-base hits in 591 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A.

His speed on the bases and ability to provide solid defense on both sides of second base will be his ticket to a big league job. However, it's looking more and more like he's destined for a backup role.

Houston Astros: RHP Jairo Solis—No. 6 HOU

Solis made his stateside debut as a 17-year-old in 2017, and his move up to full-season ball was among the most anticipated in the Houston organization last spring.

Unfortunately, his season ended prematurely when he underwent Tommy John surgery in August. Prior to the injury, he had also shown some command issues with 32 walks in 50.2 innings.

He'll still be just 20 years old when he returns to the mound and there's plenty of projection remaining in his 6'2", 160-pound frame. But for now, he's more of an intriguing flier than a top prospect.

      

Los Angeles Angels: SS Kevin Maitan—No. 4 LAA

Originally signed to a $4.25 million bonus by the Braves, Maitan was granted free agency after it was revealed that Atlanta violated international free-agency rules. The Angels jumped at the chance to add to a thin system and gave him a $2.2 million bonus in December 2017.

His fall from elite middle infield prospect to fringe corner infield prospect has been a swift one.

Amid lofty expectations, he turned in a disappointing pro debut and followed it up with a .248/.306/.397 line in rookie ball for the Angels last season. If he can keep his conditioning in check, he still possesses the offensive tools that made him such a hot commodity. Rebuilding his stock is going to be an uphill battle.

      

Oakland Athletics: SS/OF Jorge Mateo—No. 3 OAK, No. 64 MLB

Elite speed will only get you so far. Just ask Billy Hamilton.

Mateo exploded onto the top-prospect scene with an 82-steal season as a 20-year-old in 2015, and he showed some well-rounded offensive potential in 2017 when he posted a .781 OPS with 30 doubles, 18 triples and 12 home runs between High-A and Double-A.

However, he his stock took a major hit last season when he batted just .230/.280/.353 and struck out at a 27.3 percent clip at Triple-A while stealing only 25 bases in 35 attempts. Defensively, he appears destined for the outfield long term.

     

Seattle Mariners: RHP Max Povse—No. 6 SEA

With a towering 6'8" frame and a heavy fastball that generates a ton of ground balls when he's locating it well, Povse was one of the few promising pitching prospects in a paper-thin system heading into last season.

After a solid start to the season at Double-A where he posted a 3.41 ERA and a 60-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 60.1 innings, he was absolutely shelled after a promotion to Triple-A.

In eight starts with Tacoma, he pitched to an unsightly 8.84 ERA and 1.86 WHIP, and his command completely disappeared with 28 walks in 36.2 innings. The lack of a consistent breaking ball to complement his low-90s fastball and solid changeup could land him in the bullpen.

     

Texas Rangers: LHP Yohander Mendez—No. 5 TEX

Mendez established himself as arguably the top prospect in the Texas system in 2016 when he went 12-3 with a 2.19 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 113 strikeouts in 111 innings over three minor league levels to earn a September call-up.

Unfortunately, the left-hander has failed to take the next step forward in the years since.

He was 2-10 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over 122.1 innings in the minors last season. While he saw time in the majors for a third straight season, his 5.53 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over 27.2 innings did little to establish a long-term role. His fastball/changeup combination and lack of a consistent breaking pitch has him destined for the bullpen.

Atlanta Braves: C Alex Jackson—No. 10 ATL

After flaming out in Seattle, where he was taken No. 6 overall in the 2014 draft, Jackson seemed to benefit from a change of scenery and a return to catching when he was traded to Atlanta.

In 2017, he hit .267/.328/.480 with 21 doubles, 19 home runs and 65 RBI and drew positive reviews for his dedication to improving behind the plate.

Those gains disappeared with a move to Double-A in 2018, when he hit .201/.286/.360 and saw his strikeout rate climb from 26.4 to 31.8 percent. Any thoughts that he might be the catcher of the future have been erased by the emergence of William Contreras.

     

Miami Marlins: RHP Jorge Guzman—No. 2 MIA, No. 87 MLB

Guzman was the prospect centerpiece of last offseason's Giancarlo Stanton trade, coming over from the Yankees along with second baseman Starlin Castro and teenage infielder Jose Devers.

With a fastball that touches 103 and a power slider, Guzman has one of the most electric arms in baseball, and he posted a 2.30 ERA with an 88/18 K/BB in 66.2 innings at Low-A in 2017. The question is whether he'll ever throw enough strikes to be a starter.

Walking 64 batters in 96 innings at High-A did nothing to ease those concerns, and a move to the bullpen could be unavoidable. While he has closer upside as a reliever, there was clearly a belief that he could stick as a starter when he was acquired last winter.

      

New York Mets: OF Desmond Lindsay—No. 8 NYM

Injuries have kept Lindsay—who was given a 50 grade or better for all five tools by MLB.com—from delivering on the potential that made him a second-round pick in 2015.

A hamstring injury slowed him during his senior year of high school and lingered into his first full pro season. Then he missed time with an elbow injury that eventually required surgery in 2017, and he was again limited to 90 games last season.

As a result, he's played just 227 games in four pro seasons, hitting .241/.346/.372 while topping out at the High-A level. At 22, he still has time to get back on track, but his lengthy injury history has robbed him of his top-prospect status.

     

Philadelphia Phillies: OF Jhailyn Ortiz—No. 7 PHI

The Phillies gave Ortiz a $4 million bonus in 2015, and he looked like an emerging star when he hit .302/.401/.560 with 15 doubles, eight home runs and 30 RBI in 47 games at Low-A in 2017.

That performance was enough to generate some attention on leaguewide top-100 lists heading into his full-season debut, but he landed with a thud at Single-A.

While he continued to show intriguing power potential with 18 doubles and 13 home runs, he hit just .225/.297/.375 and struck out 148 times at a 32.6 percent rate. In this case, the top-prospect label was affixed a bit prematurely, even if he does still offer considerable upside.

      

Washington Nationals: C Raudy Read—No. 9 WAS

Read squandered a prime opportunity when he missed the first 80 games of the 2018 season serving a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs.

With Matt Wieters missing time to injury, the light-hitting duo of Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom saw significant time at the MLB level. It stands to reason that Read—the team's top catching prospect at the time—would have gotten a look had he been available.

Instead, the 25-year-old spent another season in the upper levels of the minors, hitting a respectable .279/.319/.401 in 53 games. Now, with the offseason additions of Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki and the emergence of fellow prospect Tres Barrera, the door may have slammed shut for Read before he ever got a chance to walk through.

Chicago Cubs: RHP Jose Albertos—No. 3 CHC

Albertos pitched one game in his pro debut in 2016, striking out seven over four scoreless innings while generating a ton of buzz.

He continued to turn heads with his advanced three-pitch mix the following season with a 3.14 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 48/17 K/BB in 43 innings. It looked like 2018 could be a breakout season as he moved up to full-season ball and was given a bit more leash.

Instead, his command completely disappeared as he walked a staggering 65 batters in 30.1 innings while posting a 14.84 ERA. Things snowballed quickly, and he's now a complete unknown going forward.

      

Cincinnati Reds: OF Jose Siri—No. 7 CIN

Siri put together an eye-opening 2017 season with the asterisk that he was a bit behind the top-prospect developmental curve.

Playing at Single-A as a 21-year-old, he hit .293/.341/.530 with 24 doubles, 11 triples, 24 home runs and 46 steals in 58 attempts.

The move up to better competition exposed some flaws, and his batting line dipped to .239/.294/.449 while his strikeout rate climbed from 23.6 to 30.1 percent. Siri still possesses an intriguing mix of power and speed, but he'll need to refine his approach to make an impact in the majors.

      

Milwaukee Brewers: 1B Jake Gatewood—No. 14 MIL

We're cheating a bit here since Gatewood didn't rank among the team's top 10 prospects. However, with Lewis Brinson (No. 1), Monte Harrison (5), Luis Ortiz (6), Brett Phillips (7) and Isan Diaz (9) all traded, and both Brandon Woodruff (2) and Corbin Burnes (3) graduating to the majors, the pickings were slim.

Gatewood had been something of a name since putting on a show during commercial breaks at the 2013 MLB Home Run Derby following his win in the USA Baseball Home Run Derby.

The big 6'5" slugger appeared to turn a corner in 2017 when he hit .264/.333/.441 with 40 doubles and 15 home runs. However, he hit just .244 with a .302 on-base percentage and a 29.4 percent strikeout rate at Double-A last year, and he again looks more bust than boom.

      

Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Luis Escobar—No. 7 PIT

The Pirates have a hitter-heavy system behind No. 1 prospect Mitch Keller, and a case can still be made that Escobar is the second-best pitching prospect in the system.

That said, his long-term outlook has dimmed a bit.

After striking out 168 batters in 131.2 innings in 2017, his strikeout rate dipped from 11.5 to 7.7 this past season. That sudden inability to miss bats, coupled with his middling command and a high-effort delivery, has diminished his chances of sticking as a starter.

     

St. Louis Cardinals: SS Delvin Perez—No. 12 STL

Here's another case when we're stretching the parameters a bit due to a lot of player movement. Jack Flaherty (No. 2), Carson Kelly (3), Tyler O'Neill (5), Jordan Hicks (6) and Harrison Bader (8) all exhausted their prospect status in St. Louis, while Sandy Alcantara (4) and Magneuris Sierra (7) were both traded before the season.

That leaves us with Perez, who might have been a top-10 pick in 2016 if a positive PED test had not been revealed right before the draft.

The Cardinals wound up taking him No. 23 overall with the hope that his bat would catch up to his already-advanced glove. That hasn't happened so far, and after hitting .213/.301/.272 in 64 games at Low-A, his stock has bottomed out.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 1B Pavin Smith—No. 3 ARI

After hitting .342/.427/.570 with 13 home runs and 77 RBI during his junior season at Virginia, Smith was the second college bat taken in the 2017 draft at No. 7 overall—behind only two-way standout Brendan McKay.

While he has continued to show an advanced approach with a .361 on-base percentage and nearly as many walks (84) as strikeouts (89) in 726 professional plate appearances, his lack of over-the-fence production has hurt his stock.

With a first-base-only defensive profile, he'll need to show more than the .392 slugging percentage and 11 home runs he tallied in 120 games at High-A last season.

    

Colorado Rockies: RHP Ryan Castellani—No. 6 COL

Castellani was the youngest ERA qualifier in the Double-A Eastern League during the 2017 season, and the 21-year-old held his own, posting a 4.81 ERA with 132/47 K/BB in 157.1 innings.

The Rockies sent him back to Double-A for the 2018 season, and his results took a nosedive.

A jump in his walk rate from 2.7 to 4.7 led to a 5.49 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 134.1 innings. If he can regain his command, he's still far enough ahead of the developmental curve to right the ship. Until then, he's fallen out of the top-prospect conversation.

     

Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Yadier Alvarez—No. 5 LAD

Armed with a fastball that touches 101 and a wipeout slider, Alvarez can be absolutely overpowering.

Even while posting a mediocre 4.23 ERA last season, he still struck out 62 batters in 55.1 innings and held opposing hitters to a .211 batting average.

He actually gave up more walks (44) than hits (42), and therein lies the problem. No matter how good your stuff is, it's awfully hard to succeed at the next level with a 7.2 BB/9 walk rate. Until he reins in his command, Alvarez can no longer be considered a top-tier prospect.

     

San Diego Padres: RHP Cal Quantrill—No. 4 SD, No. 52 MLB

In a stacked Padres farm system, Quantrill has quickly fallen behind the likes of MacKenzie Gore, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Logan Allen, Luis Patino, Michael Baez and Ryan Weathers among top pitching prospects.

The 23-year-old posted a 4.80 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 148 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season while his strikeout rate fell to 7.5 K/9.

The 6'3" right-hander still has the build and the stuff to develop into a workhorse starter at the MLB level. He just might not arrive as quickly as hoped or with the same front-line upside he displayed in the past.

     

San Francisco Giants: 1B/OF Chris Shaw—No. 2 SF

One of the few above-average upper-level prospects in a thin Giants system, Shaw hit .292/.346/.525 with 35 doubles, 24 home runs and 79 RBI between Double-A and Triple-A in 2017.

A return to Triple-A saw his walk rate (7.4 to 5.0 percent) and strikeout rate (25.7 to 34.1 percent) both trend in the wrong direction, and he fell flat in his first MLB action with a .185/.274/.278 line and 23 strikeouts in 62 plate appearances.

He looks like the leading candidate for the starting left field job heading into 2019, but that speaks more to the current state of the Giants than anything else.

      

All pro stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, while college stats come via The Baseball Cube.