Even if you're the type to gripe that it's "too early in the season for bracketology," it's never too early for men's college basketball national championship odds.
Pretty sure you can start betting on a national champion before the previous champ has even finished watching its "One Shining Moment" montage.
And if you're going to place such a bet today, it should probably be on a team ranked in the AP Top 10, as the last five national champions were ranked in the Top 10 of the final AP poll of December.
So, which of those top teams' odds to win it all are most worth buying with a little over three months remaining until the 2023 title game?
We'll give a brief justification for buying and selling each team before offering up a verdict.
Teams are listed in ascending order of ranking in latest AP poll. Title odds are from DraftKings as of the morning of Tuesday, Dec. 27.
(It's worth mentioning that AP No. 11 UCLA (+1400; $100 bet wins $1,400) and No. 12 Baylor (+1600) rank among the eight betting favorites, even though they are both outside of the Top 10. We would be selling both of them at those lines, though UCLA is significantly more intriguing than Baylor.)
Title Odds: +2000
Reason to Buy: Drew Timme is better than ever
Timme was a consensus All-American in each of the past two seasons, but he is operating on a different level thus far, putting up career-best marks in points (22.1), rebounds (8.3), assists (3.3), steals (0.9) and blocks (1.1) per game. He has scored at least 22 points in nine of 13 games played and has been especially dominant during Gonzaga's five-game winning streak. If anyone is going to single-handedly carry his team through the tourney, Timme's a good bet.
Reason to Sell: It's Gonzaga
There are other, better, more rational reasons not to invest in this year's iteration of Gonzaga. But since upsetting No. 2 seed St. John's in the 2000 NCAA tournament, the Zags have lost 10 consecutive tournament games against No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. And when you haven't achieved something since the last time St. John's was good, it's probably time for us to stop believing that you can.
Verdict: Selling
Early in the season, Gonzaga's backcourt was a complete disaster. A month ago, I wouldn't have touched the Zags with a 10-foot pole, even if given +5000 odds.
But it is at least tempting now.
Point guard Nolan Hickman has improved dramatically, and Chattanooga transfer Malachi Smith is making a major impact off the bench. The five guards/wings had a combined nine assists, eight steals and just three turnovers in the 100-90 victory over Alabama on Dec. 17. Gonzaga has won the turnover battle in four consecutive games, and it will be a legitimate threat to win it all if that trend continues/improves.
For now, though, still selling at +2000.
Title Odds: +2000
Reason to Buy: The defense is legit
Arkansas did give up 90 points to Creighton in its lone loss of the season, but the Bluejays were just unconscious from the field in that back-and-forth classic. In their other 11 games, the Razorbacks have allowed 59.4 points by forcing turnovers, blocking shots and limiting second chances, all at a high level. Defense carried them to the Elite Eight in each of the past two tournaments, and it looks even better this year.
Reason to Sell: The injury bug has set up shop in Fayetteville
The Hogs were without freshman phenom Nick Smith Jr. for almost all of November. Then in Smith's second game in the starting lineup, they lost Trevon Brazile to a season-ending injury (ACL). And now Smith is out indefinitely again for "right knee management." You have to wonder at what point the injuries will keep Arkansas from approaching its ceiling—especially as a team relying heavily on three freshmen.
Verdict: Selling
As great as the defense has been as a whole, the few top-75 opponents on Arkansas' schedule thus far haven't had all that much difficulty scoring.
But it's the unknown with Smith that's most troublesome.
If he comes back in a week or two with no restrictions, I might change my mind on Arkansas. For now, though, we've got to consider the Hogs in their current state.
Not only is Smith a great talent who would be a lottery pick even if he doesn't play another game this season, but Arkansas also has almost no perimeter offense without him. And there are a bunch of very good defenses in the SEC that will be able to expose that for all to see.
Title Odds: +2000
Reason to Buy: Brandon Miller is a star
If you like to target potential "Kemba Walker candidates" when making your choice for national champion, it doesn't get much better than Miller. Alabama's freshman phenom dropped 24 points on Michigan State, went for 24 again against Memphis and lit up Gonzaga for 36 two Saturdays ago. (He's also a great rebounder at 8.7 per game.)
Reason to Sell: Turnover margin is a major problem
You don't need to be an elite steals machine to win a national championship, but turnover margin can't be an established problem. Each of the last 13 national champions posted a positive turnover margin over the course of the full season. (And it's probably more than 13 in a row. That's just where sports reference stops tracking opponents' turnovers on team sheets.) Alabama is sitting at minus-57 through 12 contests and has yet to finish better than plus-one in a game.
Verdict: Selling
I promise, I will eventually buy some of these teams. But that turnover margin is an immediate hard pass for me, especially for a squad that ranks outside of the top 100 in three-point, two-point and free-throw percentage.
Even with Miller going off for 36 against Gonzaga, Alabama lost that game by double digits, largely because the Crimson Tide finished minus-12 in turnover margin. They also almost lost the Memphis game thanks to a minus-nine turnover margin, only surviving that one because the Tigers shot 1-of-12 from three-point range.
The road win over Houston was definitive proof that Alabama can beat anyone. But 20-1 odds on this team winning six in a row just isn't good enough.
Title Odds: +1800
Reason to Buy: Best defense in the country
The best year-end adjusted defensive efficiency mark in KenPom history was 2018-19 Texas Tech with a rating of 84.1. Tennessee is currently No. 1 at 80.8, with a sizable gap over No. 2 Houston (82.9), which has a sizable gap over No. 3 Rutgers (85.5). The Volunteers held Kansas to 50 points in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship and then suffocated Maryland in a 56-53 game a few weeks later in Brooklyn.
Reason to Sell: The Rick Barnes factor
If we're going to throw stones at Gonzaga for its shortcomings over the past two decades, we have to do the same with Barnes. He has gone 25-26 in the NCAA tournament in his career, reaching the Final Four just once in 2003. He's also 4-4 thus far in the Tennessee portion of his career, even though the Volunteers have earned a No. 2 seed, two No. 3 seeds and a No. 5 seed. His last win over a single-digit seed came in 2008.
Verdict: Buying
Yes, the Rick Barnes factor terrifies me, but it's pretty hard to argue with 18-1 odds on what KenPom.com, BPI, Sagarin and the NET all rate as one of the five best teams in the country, considering the other members of that club are getting 7-1 odds (Houston) and 12-1 odds (UConn).
It's also a little terrifying that this team occasionally cannot hit the broad side of a barn. Tennessee shot 28.8 percent from the field in the aforementioned win over Maryland and 25.4 percent in the loss to Colorado.
But the combination of an elite defense and an elite offensive rebounding unit is hard not to love. It's what has made Houston so dangerous in recent years, and it's what will make Tennessee one of the top candidates to win it all, if and when Santiago Vescovi and Julian Phillips start shooting better than 35 percent from the field.
Title Odds: +2000
Reason to Buy: The Gonzaga game
When Texas hosted Gonzaga on the 10th day of the regular season, the Longhorns delivered an unforgettable beatdown, winning 93-74. It was the first time Gonzaga lost a game by 19 or more points since March 2014. Texas was already a strong title contender heading into that game, but it instantly vaulted the Tyrese Hunter-Marcus Carr tandem to the top of any and every list of top backcourts to bet on this season.
Reason to Sell: A December not to remember
Texas almost lost a home game to Creighton, despite committing just three turnovers while the Bluejays shot 4-of-27 from distance. The Longhorns then collapsed against Illinois, blowing a 10-point second-half lead before losing in overtime. They got taken to overtime by Rice in their first game after Chris Beard's arrest after he allegedly assaulted a woman. Beard's fiancée, Randi Trew, later released a statement saying she didn't intend for Beard to get arrested and that there was an incorrect detail in the police report. There's still no telling if or when the head coach will be reinstated or what sort of impact that will have on the team.
Verdict: Buying
There's little question that Texas is less enticing now in late December than it was in late November, when it was No. 1 on KenPom.
But buy low, sell high, right?
Texas had the second-best title odds less than a month ago, but now it has dropped into a five-way tie for the 10th-best odds. That seems overly harsh for an overtime loss on a neutral court against a good team.
The Beard situation is undeniably a factor to consider, but who knows? Maybe the Longhorns become an even better team under Rodney Terry, who notably has 10 years of experience as a Division I head coach. There's certainly enough talent on the roster to contend for a title.
Title Odds: +1600
Reason to Buy: Offensive execution
No one in the country can score quite like Arizona does. The Wildcats did have one putrid night of offense in their loss at Utah, but they are leading the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage and two-point percentage, averaging 90.2 points per game. They bucketed their way to the Maui Invitational title.
Reason to Sell: Defense matters
By the end of the NCAA tournament, the national champion always ranks top-25 at KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, and Arizona (65th) has a lot of work to do to get there. Cincinnati, Creighton, Utah, Indiana and even California—which might be the worst major-conference team in the country—each averaged better than one point per possession against Arizona.
Verdict: Selling
Arizona might have the highest ceiling in the country. It definitely has the best one-two punch in the post in Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo, and it is easily one of the most entertaining teams to watch.
But the whole "elite offense, mediocre defense" thing just never works.
Both Purdue and Iowa ended last season top-five in adjusted offensive efficiency and outside of the top 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency, only to get ousted by double-digit seeds. Both Iowa and Ohio State earned No. 2 seeds in the 2021 tournament while meeting the same criteria, and neither one made it to the Sweet 16.
Could Arizona be the exception to the rule? Maybe.
Do I want them at fifth-best odds to win the title? No thanks.
Title Odds: +1400
Reason to Buy: Well-rounded team that has thrived against a tough slate
Kansas has already played seven games against potential NCAA tournament teams, but it is sitting at 11-1 and ranked top-15 in both offense and defense on KenPom. Between head Bill Self being suspended for the first four games of the season amid an investigation into recruiting practices and needing to replace six of the eight leading scorers from last season, a rocky start wouldn't have been a huge surprise. But Kansas looks every bit as good as it did at this time one year ago.
Reason to Sell: Repeating is hard to do
It's about as mathematically rational as betting tails on a coin flip just because you've seen a few heads in a row, but the only back-to-back champion in the past three decades was Florida in 2006-07. And without an actual big man in the primary seven-man rotation—6'8" Jalen Wilson is the de facto starting center—winning it all figures to be extra difficult for Kansas this year.
Verdict: Selling
The opportunity to get Kansas at good value has already come and gone.
After sputtering through the Maui Invitational—with a narrow win over NC State, an OT win over Wisconsin and a 14-point loss to Tennessee—the Jayhawks' odds spiked to as high as 24-1. But after subsequently annihilating Texas Southern, Seton Hall, Missouri and Indiana by 27.0 points per game, Kansas is back among the favorites to win it all.
It's a fair line, but it's not a favorable one to us.
If you do feel like betting on Kansas and neglected to do so a month ago, maybe set yourself a reminder for late January—after the Jayhawks have played road games against Texas Tech, West Virginia, Baylor and Kentucky. That could be another buy-low point.
Title Odds: +700
Reason to Buy: Top-notch defense
Through 13 games, the only opponent to average at least one point per possession against Houston was Virginia, which managed 61 points in a 59-possession game; a game that Houston still won by eight in Charlottesville. The Cougars have been exquisite on defense, and they have yet to unleash Ja'Vier Francis—who is averaging 22.5 points, 15.5 rebounds and 5.3 blocks per 40 minutes—in a game against a real opponent. If he emerges as a regularly deployable weapon during AAC play, mercy.
Reason to Sell: The offense isn't great
Houston's offensive efficiency looks fine, but that's largely a product of offensive rebounding and juicing the numbers against weak competition. In the five games the Cougars have played against KenPom Top 75 foes, they scored 302 points (60.4 PPG) in 317 possessions (0.95 PPP) and shot 39.9 percent from the field. Defense wins championships, but being able to score is also kind of important.
Verdict: Buying
On the one hand, I'm typically inclined to fade the favorite, which Houston is by a considerable margin. The next-closest team is Connecticut at +1200. Those respective implied odds—12.5 percent for Houston; 7.7 percent for Connecticut—suggest that Houston is 62 percent more likely to win the national championship than the next-best team.
That seems like a bit much.
On the other hand, 7-1 odds on the favorite this deep into the season isn't too shabby. By the end of November last year, Gonzaga was at +350 with 7-0 Duke as the top challenger to the Zags at +800.
It's not like Houston's line is going to move in the bettors' favor anytime soon either. The Cougars are projected to win each of their remaining 18 games, 15 of them by double digits.
And let's not forget: The Final Four is in Houston this year.
Title Odds: +1200
Reason to Buy: Deepest, most well-rounded team thus far
Some teams go nine deep and hope it won't come back to bite them too often. Connecticut goes nine deep and wishes it could find more minutes for all nine guys. The Huskies comfortably rank top-10 in the nation in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency, winning every game by double digits.
Reason to Sell: Always fade the trendy skyrocketer
Last year, it was Arizona and USC. The year before that, it was Missouri. And remember Arizona State's 12-0 start back in 2017-18? There's usually at least one team that goes from unranked in the preseason to a trendy contender by early December, and those teams almost never make the Final Four, let alone win it all. (Naturally, though, the one colossal exception to the rule was Connecticut in 2010-11.)
Verdict: Buying
Connecticut is my pick to win it all, so if you're giving me the Huskies at anything better than the favorite's odds, I'll take it.
Is it concerning that they were tied at 52-52 with roughly nine minutes remaining in the only game they have played against a surefire NCAA tournament team (Alabama)? Maybe it should be. But I prefer to focus on the portions of that game in which the Huskies went on runs of 18-3 and 21-2 against one of the 10 best teams in the country.
Connecticut seems to have at least one of those scoring outbursts up its sleeve for every game. Just got to hope the Huskies never get to the point where they get too confident in their ability to go on those runs and get a little too comfortable playing from behind.
Title Odds: +1600
Reason to Buy: Zach Edey is a bad, bad man
Edey is averaging 22.6 points, 13.9 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. Purdue's 7'4" center went for 11 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocks in the game against Nebraska that was both A) his worst game of the season (because of five turnovers) and B) one of just three times in the past two-plus seasons that a player reached all three of those marks in a single game. (The others were Chet Holmgren and Walker Kessler last season.) Just ridiculous that even at his worst, he's still one of the best.
Reason to Sell: See: Connecticut
Like UConn, Purdue was also unranked to open the season. Thus, the "trendy skyrocketer" caution applies here too. The other concern is that the Boilermakers have been uncharacteristically bad from three-point range this season, though 2010-11 Connecticut and 2012-13 Louisville showed that isn't a deal-breaker if you're elite on defense or have the most unguardable player in the nation on your roster.
Verdict: Buying
If you're out on Purdue as a title contender simply because it's Purdue, believe me, I get it. The Boilermakers have participated in 30 NCAA tournaments since last making the Final Four in 1980, and they have gotten to an Elite Eight just once in the last 17 seasons under Matt Painter (2019).
Rising to the occasion in March isn't exactly this program's calling card.
But +1600 for the No. 1 team in the AP poll? A team that has the runaway favorite for National Player of the Year, a team that has already blown out Gonzaga, Duke and West Virginia on a neutral floor and a team that looks as good as it has since the days of Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson?
Yeah, I'll take that action.
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