Predicting When Every Remaining Undefeated Men's College Basketball Team Will Lose

In 2020-21, the Gonzaga Bulldogs made it all the way to the men's college basketball national championship before suffering their first loss of the season.

Last year, the final undefeated teams (Baylor and USC) both suffered their first losses on January 11, more than two months before the tourney even began.

How deep into the 2022-23 campaign will we get with at least one undefeated team?

Ten teams are still standing in that quest: three from the SEC (Auburn, Mississippi State and Missouri), three from the Mountain West (New Mexico, UNLV and Utah State), Connecticut, Houston, Purdue and Virginia. We're going to lose one of them on Dec. 17 when Houston visits Virginia, though there's a chance that the winner of that game will run the table.

For each team, we have listed the percentage chance that they're undefeated on each of January 1, February 1 and after the final day of the regular season. Those figures were calculated by multiplying together KenPom win probabilities as of Thursday morning.

The order in which teams are presented is also based on win probabilities. They're sorted chronologically by the first game in which they are given a 49 percent or lower chance of victory—if such a game is even on their schedule.

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 1.8 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: <0.01 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: Ain't Happening

First Projected Loss: Dec. 10 vs. Kansas

Missouri is all sorts of fun to watch, boasting both one of the fastest tempos in the country and one of the most efficient offenses. That's been a pleasant surprise.

Missouri ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency and 260th in adjusted tempo last season. And after parting ways with head coach Cuonzo Martin, Mizzou brought in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State, who had never ranked among the top 125 in offensive efficiency or adjusted tempo during his three seasons as a head coach.

Lo and behold, Missouri is leading the nation in scoring at 93.0 points per game with a super-fluid, undersized roster. Each member of the primary eight-man rotation is 6'7" or shorter and is averaging at least 5.9 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. The Tigers are also leading the nation in steal percentage with at least a dozen in eight of their first nine games. (All of those fast-break opportunities explains the pace/scoring.)

However, the Tigers' upcoming schedule is an absolute gauntlet. Of their next 11 games, the only one that KenPom gives them at least a 55 percent chance of winning is the home game against Vanderbilt on January 7.

In other words, Missouri could go straight from 9-0 to 10-10 in six weeks' time.

If the Tigers don't lose to their old archrival on Saturday, they might lose to UCF the following Saturday. And even if they make it through that two-game stretch unscathed, they're extremely unlikely to win all of the subsequent three games against Illinois (in St. Louis), Kentucky (home) and Arkansas (away).

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 32.3 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 14.2 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 4.1 percent

First Projected Loss: Dec. 17 at Virginia

It's somewhat unfair to have Houston this high on the list, because the Cougars have the best chance of running the table by far. Not only are they the best team in the country, but they are the best team in the AAC without a close runner-up.

KenPom gives Houston at least a 77 percent chance of winning every conference game except its regular-season finale on the road against Memphis. And even in that one, the Cougars have a 65 percent chance of winning.

As far as KenPom is concerned, Houston has a 10.9 percent chance of going 18-0 in AAC play. It's probably safe to assume that's the best chance any team has of going undefeated in league play, if Gonzaga only has a 6.5 percent chance of going 16-0 in the West Coast Conference.

However, Houston still has nonconference games against a very good Alabama (at home) and an undefeated Virginia (on the road) before it can turn its attention to maybe beating every AAC team in its path. And by the slimmest of margins (51 percent win probability), Virginia should be favored in that game, where the final score legitimately might be something like 46-45.

Should Houston survive those games against Alabama and Virginia, though, the "Perfect Season Watch" will officially be on.

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 8.2 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.04 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: Ain't Happening

First Projected Loss: Dec. 31 vs. San Diego State

It's been a minute since UNLV started out this hot.

The Rebels went 9-0 to open the 2010-11 season. But if they can win the coin-flip game against Washington State on Saturday, it would be their first 10-0 start since the 1990-91 squad with Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon and Greg Anthony that carried a perfect 34-0 record into the Final Four.

Granted, the Rebels' schedule hasn't been anything special, and no one is projecting this team to go to the Final Four. In fact, only 12 of the 30 projected brackets in the latest Bracket Matrix update even have the undefeated Rebels in the dance.

But UNLV does have something good brewing with Luis Rodriguez and Keshon Gilbert leading an aggressive, turnover-forcing defense. Dominating the turnover battle was a calling card for this team back in the 2007-11 timeframe under Lon Kruger when the Rebels were a regular in the NCAA tournament, so that's a good place to start.

Mountain West Conference games against San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State and New Mexico are going to be a problem, though, starting with the New Year's Eve showdown with the Aztecs. This mediocre-at-best offense might not reach 50 points against SDSU.

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 24.9 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.03 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: Ain't Happening

First Projected Loss: Jan. 3 at Tennessee (7 p.m. ET)

Two of the remaining 10 undefeateds are projected to suffer their first loss on Jan. 3. As the earlier of the two games, Mississippi State appears first on the list.

The Bulldogs are currently 8-0, which is tied with the 2017-18 campaign for their best start in 18 years. That year's team started out 13-1 before missing the NCAA tournament, so no one in Starkville should be counting their chickens before they hatch this year.

But this sure looks like the best Mississippi State team in nearly two decades.

Chris Jans' guys have a bit of a "Press Virginia" thing going on, both dominating on the offensive glass (led by Tolu Smith) and generating steals (led by Shakeel Moore) at a remarkable rate. As a result, the Bulldogs have held each of their first eight opponents to 55 points or fewer, which should make them a nuisance in SEC play.

But just like most of those Press Virginia teams, Mississippi State can't shoot.

Five of the team's top eight scorers are shooting below 38 percent from the field, and they are atrocious from the free-throw line as a team (62.2 percent). Despite their great defense, they beat Marquette and Utah by only three points each, neither of which is a surefire NCAA tournament team.

Miss State should get through Minnesota, Jackson State, Nicholls State and Drake to carry a 12-0 record into SEC play. But a .500 record in conference is drastically more likely than a perfect record.

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 9.7 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.09 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: Ain't Happening

First Projected Loss: Jan. 3 at Fresno State (11 p.m. ET)

In his first season at New Mexico in 2021-22, it took head coach Richard Pitino 21 games to get his eighth win. So regardless of where things go from here, starting out 8-0—with a road win over a darn good Saint Mary's team, no less—has been an impressive development.

The biggest change for the Lobos has been in the paint.

Last year, they routinely got destroyed down low. But Pitino went out and got senior centers from Wichita State (Morris Udeze) and UMKC (Josiah Allick) and put them both in the starting lineup. This team is now practically living in the paint, as it's ranked 361st (out of 363 teams) in three-point attempt rate.

Overall, New Mexico is probably the worst of the remaining undefeated teams, especially on the defense. There's a good chance the Lobos will lose to either San Francisco or Iona within the next 10 days.

Even if they get through those two tests and the subsequent toss-up at Fresno State on Jan. 3, the road game against San Diego State on Jan. 14 will almost certainly be their undoing. There's only about a 0.5 percent chance that the Lobos will emerge from that one with a zero in the loss column.

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 17.6 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.4 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.01 percent

First Projected Loss: Jan. 7 at Boise State

There's a great big asterisk on Utah State's percentages, because the Aggies will be participating in the Diamond Head Classic from Dec. 22-25.

If they win their opener against Seattle, they would likely face Iona in the semifinals before drawing Washington State in the finals. And on a neutral floor against what are currently the nation's 60th-best and 65th-best teams, per KenPom, we're giving Utah State a 62 percent chance of victory in each game.

Having said that, Utah State should be the favorite in that event, and it should win the games against Loyola Marymount, Westminster Utah and Weber State leading up to that trip to Hawai'i. So, we like this team's chances of at least getting through Christmas with a zero in the loss column.

However, the Aggies are inevitably going to have an off night from the perimeter at some point and lose a game they probably shouldn't.

They've been awesome from deep thus far, shooting 44.6 percent as a team. Steven Ashworth and Taylor Funk have been particularly great, shooting a combined 54-of-104.

But when your defense is just OK and your success is deeply rooted in the ability to consistently throw a ball through a hoop from 22-plus feet away, going undefeated for a month is tough. Doing it for an entire season is effectively impossible.

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 23.6 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.9 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: Ain't Happening

First Projected Loss: Jan. 28 at West Virginia

Auburn's Walker Kessler was named the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year last season, yet the Tigers have gotten a little better on defense without him. That's because of the addition of Morehead State transfer Johni Broome.

Similar to a few years ago when Gonzaga pilfered Brandon Clarke from San Jose State and he dominated on defense for a title contender, Broome is averaging 6.3 blocks and 3.2 steals per 40 minutes for Auburn. When he goes out of the game, in comes Dylan Cardwell, who is racking up 6.6 blocks and 1.7 steals per 40 minutes.

That duo is largely responsible for the Tigers' spot on this list, because defense was the key to their close victories over Northwestern, Saint Louis and South Florida. But like Mississippi State, their offense is a bit of a train wreck.

Auburn has been held to one point per possession or fewer in five of its eight games, most notably the hideous 43-42 victory over Northwestern in Mexico. That's going to cause problems once the competition stiffens up, perhaps as soon as this Saturday against Memphis in Atlanta.

There are seven games in which Auburn has between a 50 and 75 percent chance of victory before the B12/SEC Challenge game against West Virginia that it is projected to lose. It would be shocking if the Tigers make it to Jan. 28 without a loss.

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 70.5 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 3.8 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.08 percent

First Projected Loss: Feb. 4 at Indiana

At slightly greater than 70 percent, Purdue is far and away the team that's most likely to carry an undefeated record into 2023. The only other team north of 33 percent is Connecticut, and even the Huskies only have a 47 percent chance of doing so.

After playing at Nebraska on Saturday (76 chance of winning), the only thing left on Purdue's schedule before January are home games against Davidson, New Orleans and Florida A&M, which they should probably win by a combined margin of more than 100 points.

But once the Boilermakers get into the rigors of twice-a-week Big Ten action, losses are inevitable.

The last team to go undefeated in Big Ten play was also the last team to go undefeated in a season—the 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers. The last team to get through Big Ten play with only one loss was the Greg Oden-led Ohio State Buckeyes in 2006-07, back when they only played 16 league games.

The Big Ten schedule now features 20 conference games, and the league is incredibly balanced, with 11 of the 14 teams ranked in the KenPom Top 50. Even a 16-4 conference record would be impressive, "NCAA tournament No. 1 seed" material.

20-0 is an unrealistic pipe dream.

Purdue's only projected loss is at Indiana in early February, but road games against Ohio State (Jan. 5), Michigan State (Jan. 16), Michigan (Jan. 26), Maryland (Feb. 16) and Wisconsin (Mar. 2) are nowhere close to guaranteed wins.

Frankly, it's amazing they have even a 0.08 percent chance of going undefeated. It feels almost mathematically impossible.

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 23.5 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 2.9 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 0.2 percent

First Projected Loss: None

Saying that Virginia doesn't have a projected loss is not the same thing as saying Virginia is projected to go undefeated. As you can see above, that's extremely unlikely to happen.

However, there aren't any individual games in which the Cavaliers would be the underdog if they were played today.

Several games are basically coin flips, though, beginning with next Saturday's home game against Houston (51 percent win probability). KenPom also gives Virginia only a 59 percent chance of winning at Miami three days later.

Multiply .51 and .59, subtract it from one, and you've got a 70 percent chance that Virginia doesn't even make it to Christmas undefeated.

Throw in the road games against Virginia Tech (52 percent) and North Carolina (50 percent) in February, and the Cavaliers have about a 1-in-13 chance of winning all four of those games, let alone the other 17 games left on the schedule.

But it technically could happen.

While Virginia isn't operating at its 2017-19 peak, both its perimeter shooting and its overall defensive impact are way better than they were during last year's 14-loss mess. And as a whole, the ACC has been a substantial disappointment. UVA doesn't play at Duke, and the game at North Carolina is nowhere near as intimidating as it would have been a month ago.

Virginia isn't likely to run the table. But if the Cavaliers are one of the best teams in the country, carrying a 26-3 record into the ACC tournament and earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament is well within the realm of possibility.

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 47.2 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: 10.2 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: 2.2 percent

First Projected Loss: None

Again, "no projected losses" is not the same thing as "projected for no losses." KenPom says Connecticut should be favored in every game it plays, but it also puts the Huskies' projected record at 28-3.

However, Connecticut's odds of running the table are about 10 times better than those of Virginia, so the Huskies were the clear winner of the tiebreaker for the top spot on this list.

The Huskies have won each of their first 10 games by at least 10 points, including a 21-point shellacking of Florida in a true road game on Wednesday. In all 10 games, Connecticut averaged at least 1.07 points per possession on offense while limiting its opponent to 0.95 points per possession or fewer on defense.

Early on against the likes of Stonehill and Delaware State, big deal. But keeping that streak intact while playing consecutive games against Oregon, Alabama, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Florida was incredible.

This team is outstanding on both ends of the floor. It almost has a 2014-15 Kentucky "platoons" situation going on, with nine guys playing relatively equal minutes and all of them capable of carrying the team in one way or another.

As of now, KenPom can't even come up with a spot in Big East play where UConn has a 40 percent chance of losing. However, the Huskies' 73 percent chance of winning at Villanova to end the regular season should swing in the Wildcats' direction between now and then.

The Wildcats are 4-5, but they just got freshman star Cam Whitmore on the court two games ago. They're also still waiting for Justin Moore's return to action, and they already look much improved from their dismal start. They'll be a formidable, probably slightly favored foe in Philadelphia come early March.