Kyle Lowry Trade Isn't the Answer for Heat amid Latest NBA Rumors

Last season, the Miami Heat had the best record in the Eastern Conference. Their playoff run lasted until the seventh game of the conference finals.

This time around, though, they've slipped eight spots in the standings and hold the same record as the teams seeded 10th and 11th. In other words, they aren't currently guaranteed a spot in the play-in tournament, let alone a return ticket to the postseason.

This roster, which features many of the same players minus P.J. Tucker, needs something. It might be as simple as time or a clean bill of health. Or it's possible that only a trade can snap the team out of this sluggish start.

The Heat have apparently given enough thought to a shakeup trade that they're reportedly "willing to move" starting point guard Kyle Lowry, per Fox Sports' Ric Bucher. As the analyst noted, though, Lowry's age (36) and salary (one more season on his three-year, $85 million deal) makes it "hard to identify a team that would take him on and provide the Heat with an upgrade."

We can take that a step further—it's not merely hard to find that trade partner, it's impossible. That's why whatever ails this franchise won't be cured by a Lowry trade.

In August 2021, the Heat paid a small fortune to add Lowry. The cost went beyond that aforementioned contract, as they also had to broker a sign-and-trade with the Toronto Raptors, which sent both Precious Achiuwa and Goran Dragić north of the border.

If Miami knew then what it does know about Lowry, it arguably wouldn't make that move. His numbers are trending down across the board, and it's hard not to assume this is at least partly owed to an age-related decline. His .101 win shares per 48 minutes are the second-fewest of his career, per Basketball-Reference. His 13.6 player efficiency rating is the lowest he's ever posted.

It's understandable that the Heat would be open to a trade, but that doesn't actually make it an option.

Lowry's trade market would be restricted to, at most, a few win-now shoppers who wouldn't be at all interested in sending win-now players back to South Beach. The Heat could still use a Tucker replacement, and if they moved Lowry, they'd need a starting point guard, too. Good luck finding the swap that would scratch both itches for this squad.

Not to mention, the Heat grabbed Lowry for a reason, and it wasn't necessarily to put up big numbers. Rather, his primary task is providing on-court organization at both ends, and he still earns solid marks in that department. For the second consecutive season, the Heat play better with him than without.

Heat fans may not want to hear this, knowing there's only so much time left for 33-year-old Jimmy Butler to lead a championship run, but a little bit of patience might be the most appealing option.

Lowry hasn't even logged 200 minutes alongside Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro this season. When that quartet has played together, it has outscored opponents by 6.0 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. That net rating, for context, would rank fifth overall.

It's possible the Heat already have what they need to turn things around. This group came incredibly close to making the championship round last season, and remember, the team it lost to in the conference finals, the Boston Celtics, didn't hit its stride until mid-January. Fast-forward a month from now, and maybe Miami is rolling on a momentum-building winning streak.

If not, though, the Heat have the assets to make trades around their core four. They have a major money-matcher in Duncan Robinson's contract, long-term assets (including draft picks and rookie first-rounder Nikola Jović) and bargain contributors (Gabe Vincent and Max Strus). That package may not bring back a star, but it could be enough to find a plug-and-play starter or several depth pieces.

It's too early to consider any major moves.

It would help if the Heat were more consistent, sure, but it's too soon to say this club can't be really good again. They're all of two games back of the fourth-seeded Atlanta Hawks. Miami's outlook could change in a hurry if it starts rattling off a few wins in a row.

And for the record, all of the offseason worrying about letting Tucker leave for nothing hasn't really resulted in this glaring void. In fact, Miami's defense hasn't suffered much at all, slipping from fourth to eighth in efficiency, per NBA.com. The real decline has come on the offensive end, where Tucker supplied little beyond the occasional corner three.

If it's clear over time the Heat simply can't find the right formula with this group—don't forget, Victor Oladipo is on the mend and could address a need for more off-the-dribble creation—then the front office can go searching for a deal. Not one involving Lowry, though, or any of the core four, for that matter. This nucleus has proved it can win big together, it just might need more of a lift from the supporting cast.