NBA Power Rankings: Are Stephen Curry's Warriors Finally Turning a Corner?

As the NBA calendar moves past Thanksgiving, there's plenty for NBA fans to be grateful for.

The league has rarely, if ever, seen this level of parity and talent throughout both conferences. FiveThirtyEight's projection system sees the Boston Celtics as a clear favorite, but there are a whopping 13 other teams that have between a 2 and an 11 percent chance to win it all.

The balance up and down the standings can lead to some serious volatility in the power rankings, but there are a few teams that seem to be solidifying their position at the top or bottom of this list.

With overall numbers, recent performance and a healthy dose of subjectivity as our guide, here's where everyone stacks up on Thanksgiving week.

Previous Rank: 28
Net Rating: -10.3

The race for Victor Wembanyama is very much on for the San Antonio Spurs, who've lost 11 of their last 12.

If they stand pat, the Spurs should almost certainly be in the mix for the 14 percent chance at the top pick that comes with a bottom-three record, but they can also solidify that pursuit with a trade (or trades).

Jakob Poeltl's defense, passing, offensive rebounding and touch around the rim could make him valuable for plenty of contenders. And Doug McDermott's shooting could be a commodity as well.

Previous Rank: 29
Net Rating: -7.5

After a chilly October in which he shot 36.0 percent from the field and 34.5 percent from three, Jalen Green has really warmed up in November.

Since the calendar flipped, Green is averaging 22.8 points, 4.7 assists and 2.7 threes, while shooting 46.5 percent from the field.

The Houston Rockets are still getting walloped when he's on the floor, but signs of individual improvement should be a source of optimism for a rebuilding team.

Previous Rank: 30
Net Rating: -7.7

It might be time to break up the Detroit Pistons. No, really. After back-to-back wins at altitude over the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, the front office has to be thinking about what it might be able to get in return for veterans like Alec Burks and Bojan Bogdanović.

Both are clearly making the Pistons more competitive, and with a 5-15 record and Cade Cunningham out indefinitely, Detroit should probably be in the market for losses (and more pingpong balls in the lottery).

Burks is averaging 16.6 points and shooting 44.1 percent from three off the bench. Bogdanović is at 20.7 points with a 40.0 three-point percentage. The shooting and shot creation of either could help plenty of contenders.

Previous Rank: 27
Net Rating: -5.4

The Charlotte Hornets beat the shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday, but another sub-.500 week has them on track for a 14 percent chance to land the top pick in the draft.

If veterans like Kelly Oubre Jr. (19.1 points), Terry Rozier (20.4 points) and Gordon Hayward (16.3 points and 4.4 assists, with a 38.1 three-point percentage) continue to play well, Charlotte might even be able to trade them to contenders and improve their odds in the Wemby race.

And even though that might mean a little short-term pain, years of a LaMelo Ball-Wembanyama two-man game would be well worth it.

Previous Rank: 25
Net Rating: -4.0

There was plenty of justified excitement for Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr. and Jalen Suggs heading into this season. To varying degrees, all have lived up to that excitement.

The surprise for the Orlando Magic has come in the form of a 7'2", positionless 23-year-old who's finally living up to the hype that made him a top 10 high school recruit in a class that included Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Anfernee Simons and Darius Garland.

On the season, Bol Bol is averaging 13.1 points and shooting 42.4 percent from three. Those numbers are good enough to warrant some attention, but he's been even better since Banchero went down with an ankle injury.

Over those seven games, Bol is putting up 15.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 1.3 threes while shooting 47.4 percent from deep.

Previous Rank: 24
Net Rating: -1.7

The Oklahoma City Thunder have lost three straight and four of their last five, but the All-Star (and maybe even All-NBA) campaign of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn't really slowed down.

During the last five games, SGA is averaging 31.0 points, 7.8 assists and 9.6 made free throws while shooting 88.9 percent from the line and 41.1 percent from deep.

With the lack of talent around him, the Thunder may struggle to stay within shouting distance of .500 for much longer, but that might be a good thing, too.

If the Thunder come back in 2023-24 with this version of Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and a top pick in this year's draft, OKC might finally be ready to turn a corner.

Previous Rank: 21
Net Rating: -2.4

RJ Barrett had an encouraging performance with 25 points on 10-of-16 shooting in the New York Knicks' Monday win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, but the rest of his campaign has been concerning.

In his five games prior to the tilt against OKC, Barrett was averaging 12.6 points on 15.2 shots and converting on just 8 percent of his three-point attempts. He wasn't really rebounding or creating for others either.

The ball was already stretched a little thin last season when the Knicks had Barrett and Julius Randle as their top two options. So, the natural inclination from some around the internet was to say that Barrett was struggling to adjust to the addition of another ball-handler in Jalen Brunson.

But Barrett is scoring more points per 100 possessions (and scoring more efficiently) when Brunson is on the floor (the numbers are dreadful when Brunson is out of the game).

With that potential scapegoat off the table, Randle's struggles probably rest as much or more on his shoulders as they do on anyone else's. If he maintains his current level of play, the Knicks' net rating will remain underwhelming, and they'll likely struggle to even make the play-in tournament. If he gets his development back on track, New York might be able to challenge the top six.

Previous Rank: 26
Net Rating: -3.3

The Los Angeles Lakers are showing signs of life, and it's easy to credit Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook as the providers.

Since he moved to the bench, Russ is averaging 17.2 points and 8.3 assists while shooting 38.9 percent from deep. More importantly, AD is starting to look like the fringe MVP contender he was in the past. The numbers from his last five games are bonkers: 33.2 points, 17.4 rebounds, 2.6 blocks and 2.2 steals.

That all of this is happening while LeBron James is out feels notable too (soft schedule notwithstanding). After nearly two decades of an overwhelmingly positive impact on his teams' net ratings, L.A. is minus-6.9 points per 100 possessions with LeBron on the floor and minus-1.0 without him in 2022-23.

Previous Rank: 23
Net Rating: -0.1

Just when it looked like the Chicago Bulls might be spiraling toward the lottery and rebuilding trades, they came up with huge back-to-back wins over two of the best teams in the league.

And even as the losses were piling up, Chicago's leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, was doing everything they could to keep the team afloat.

After scoring 28 and 36, respectively, against the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, DeRozan is up to 25.9 points on 52.4 percent shooting.

Previous Rank: 20
Net Rating: +0.4

A real head-scratching loss against the Philadelphia 76ers without Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey notwithstanding, the Brooklyn Nets have won three of their last four and are starting to feel like a safe call to make the playoffs.

Kyrie Irving's return and Ben Simmons' resurgence certainly have a lot to do with things seemingly turning around, but a lesser-known role player may be the one tying everything together.

After averaging 6.2 points and 2.1 assists over five seasons with the Utah Jazz, Royce O'Neale is up to 10.3 points and 4.7 assists with the Nets. He's shooting 44.0 percent from three.

And his playmaking has been even better over the last four games. In that stretch, he's at eight assists per game.

Previous Rank: 18
Net Rating: -1.2

The week ended with a loss to the Jimmy Butler-less Miami Heat on Wednesday, but things still seem headed in the right general direction for the Washington Wizards (just maybe not as swiftly as it is for some of the teams ahead of them).

They've won six of their last eight, and there are plenty of encouraging signs from their starting forward combo of Deni Avdija and Kyle Kuzma.

The former is averaging single-digits on the season, but he's at 12.1 points, 4.0 assists and 1.4 threes, with a 41.7 three-point percentage, over his last seven games. He had 10 dimes in Wednesday's loss alone.

After dropping 33 on Miami, the latter is up to 19.8 points on the season.

If Bradley Beal can get and stay healthy, Kristaps Porzingis can continue to play like an All-Star and those two forwards keep supplementing the top two, Washington could be in the mix to avoid the play-in tournament.

Previous Rank: 17
Net Rating: -1.4

Jimmy Butler's absence isn't ideal, but the Miami Heat are probably used to this by now. He's typically avoided the "load management" discussion over the years, but he hasn't exceeded 60 appearances in a season since 2018-19, and he hasn't been over 70 since 2016-17.

A recent 0-4 road trip suggests this particular version of the Heat has a lot of growing to do before it can win without Jimmy, but Kyle Lowry's individual play should be encouraging.

Over his last five games, Lowry is averaging 20.2 points, 6.4 assists and 3.6 threes while shooting 42.9 percent from deep. If this version of the veteran point guard sticks around after Butler returns, the Heat should be able to return to the playoff mix.

Previous Rank: 15
Net Rating: -0.4

Kawhi Leonard played in just two of three games last week. Paul George has already missed three contests. With the availability of both seemingly always up in the air, it's once again up to the supporting cast to keep the team afloat.

And so far, they're struggling to pull that off.

When Leonard and George are both off the floor, L.A. is minus-11.6 points per 100 possessions, and that sample represents about a third of the team's total non-garbage time minutes.

There are some encouraging individual stat lines (like Marcus Morris Sr.'s 14.9 points and 40.9 three-point percentage, or Ivica Zubac's 10.8 rebounds, 9.7 points and 1.9 blocks per night), but the Clippers could be in trouble if Leonard can't provide consistent minutes soon.

Previous Rank: 14
Net Rating: +2.4

It's hard to draw many takeaways from the last week of Philadelphia 76ers basketball. Tyrese Maxey has missed the last three games. Joel Embiid has missed the last two. James Harden has been out since November 4.

Still, the skeleton crew came away with a win over a Brooklyn Nets team that had every member of its big three available. And good minutes for some of the reserves now could pay off in the form of a confidence boost.

One player who could be getting that boost right now is De'Anthony Melton, who's averaging 20.3 points since Maxey left the lineup.

Previous Rank: 19
Net Rating: +1.7

The Indiana Pacers ran into a bit of a buzzsaw against the streaking Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, but there's still plenty to be excited about.

Few could've imagined this team being over .500 at Thanksgiving, with Tyrese Haliburton looking like an All-Star, Bennedict Mathurin looking like a five-year vet and real veterans Myles Turner and Buddy Hield making the Los Angeles Lakers look foolish for not acquiring them this summer.

But that's what's happening—on all fronts.

If Turner and Hield remain on the team for the rest of the season, it's hard to imagine the Pacers really challenging for a bottom-three record.

Previous Rank: 22
Net Rating: +1.4

There was a couple-week stretch in which seemingly every NBA fan and analyst was ready to pour some dirt over the Minnesota Timberwolves, despite widespread acknowledgment in the offseason that there would be an adjustment period.

Now that they've had a little time to get used to playing within that two-big system, things seem to be clicking.

Minnesota has won five straight, and Karl-Anthony Towns has been on the right side of the plus-minus ledger in each of those games.

And don't look now, but coach Chris Finch may be unlocking his playmaking potential (as he did for Nikola Jokić as an assistant with the Denver Nuggets in 2016-17). During this streak, Towns is averaging 23.8 points and 5.6 assists.

Previous Rank: 8
Net Rating: 0.0

The Portland Trail Blazers have lost five of their last six. And while it might be easy to credit the absence of Damian Lillard for the slide, he's only missed the last two games, and his season-long net rating is, at best, underwhelming.

The likelier reason for Portland cooling off is simply a regression to the mean. The league is loaded with talent right now, and if you don't have a couple stars, every night can be a challenge.

Lillard is an aging one, while Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are on the fringe.

Previous Rank: 5
Net Rating: +1.7

The Toronto Raptors' record has lagged behind their net rating all season, and they're now right at .500 after a winless week.

Of course, it's hard to bring the hottest takes on a team that's been without its best player and leading scorer since November 6.

Pascal Siakam is still nursing an adductor injury, but he could be nearing a return.

On the season, Toronto is plus-9.3 points per 100 possessions with Siakam on the floor and minus-2.6 with him off.

Previous Rank: 11
Net Rating: +2.6

The absence of Mike Conley might bring a bit of a reality check for the Utah Jazz with it.

In terms of point differential per 100 possessions, the team has been a little better with Conley off the floor this season, but not having him means more minutes against starters for Collin Sexton and more minutes in general for Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

With the team's depth strained, Utah lost back-to-back games to the Los Angeles Clippers and Detroit Pistons.

Still, if you'd told any Jazz fan (or really any follower of the NBA) that Utah would be 12-8 through 20 games, they would've been stunned. This recent hiccup is worth mentioning, but the Jazz have done more than enough to suggest that this group can stay in the playoff hunt all season.

Previous Rank: 6
Net Rating: +3.1

The Dallas Mavericks' 125-112 loss at the hands of the Boston Celtics on Wednesday was a decent microcosm of the team's 2022-23 campaign.

The defensive implosion wasn't characteristic of the rest of the season, but Luka Dončić totaling 42 of the team's points (or 37.5 percent) sure was.

It's been pointed out before, but Spencer Dinwiddie has done a solid job of replacing Jalen Brunson's production. The problem is that as long as the coaching staff continues to limit Christian Wood's minutes with the starters, they've struggled to fill the role Dinwiddie occupied last season.

The player to do that could certainly be Wood, at least to an extent, but another ball-handler may be a priority for this front office when the trade window unofficially opens on December 15.

Previous Rank: 7
Net Rating: -0.2

It's becoming increasingly clear that the Memphis Grizzlies miss a couple of staples from last season's bench.

In 2021-22, the Grizzlies were plus-11.6 points per 100 possessions when Kyle Anderson and De'Anthony Melton were on the floor and Ja Morant was off. This season, they're minus-8.1 without Morant, who has missed three games.

It's early, and this coaching and developmental staff has earned the benefit of the doubt, but if they can't turn David Roddy and/or Jake LaRavia into average players, it'll be tough to replicate last season's success.

Previous Rank: 16
Net Rating: -1.5

The Golden State Warriors' bench has been a disaster all season. It's really the only reason the team is below .500.

When all five starters are on the floor, Golden State is a staggering plus-26.3 points per 100 possessions. With anything other than all five, that net rating craters to minus-9.5.

That kind of drop is seemingly impossible, but here we are. Now, it may be up to Draymond Green to save that second unit.

Jordan Poole has seen his efficiency fall off a cliff as he's tried to lead groups that include James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga or Moses Moody. With more opportunities to work off Green's playmaking, Poole has a chance to look more like the 2021-22 version of himself.

Previous Rank: 13
Net Rating: +0.1

The Atlanta Hawks tallied a pair of quality wins over the Toronto Raptors and Sacramento Kings this week, and Trae Young seems to be finding his rhythm.

Over his first 13 games, Young averaged 26.9 points, but he only shot 37.8 percent from the field. During his last four, Young is going for 30.0 points, 9.5 assists and 2.3 threes while shooting 50.6 percent from the field and 36.0 percent from deep.

He won't keep that up all season, but the cold start was never going to be a long-term thing, either. Once he settles into somewhere in the middle (which is more like his career norms), the Hawks should glide steadily toward the playoffs.

Previous Rank: 12
Net Rating: +3.1

The Sacramento Kings finally cooled off on Wednesday against the Atlanta Hawks, but a single-digit road loss to a playoff team shouldn't harsh the vibes much.

Sacramento is plus-9.2 points per 100 possessions when De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and Kevin Huerter are on the floor, and it's not hard to see why.

Few players can put as much pressure on the paint as Fox. Huerter's shooting (he's at 49.6 percent from three) makes collapsing on those drives feel like a mistake. And Sabonis' passing from the high post connects everything beautifully.

It's still early, but the Kings have shown more than enough offensive talent to suggest they'll remain in the playoff hunt all season.

Previous Rank: 4
Net Rating: +0.4

The Denver Nuggets were staring at back-to-back losses against a pair of rebuilding teams (the Detroit Pistons and Oklahoma City Thunder) in Nikola Jokić's first two games back from health and safety protocols.

On Wednesday, OKC's win probability had climbed all the way to 96.7 percent when the Thunder went up 15 with 11:43 left in the fourth quarter. From that point to the end of overtime, Jokić had 12 points, seven assists and five rebounds, and Aaron Gordon had 19 points on 10 shots. And the Nuggets won 131-126 to avoid an embarrassing two-game losing streak.

Of course, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. missed Wednesday's win. That would've been a convenient excuse had the Nuggets lost. Due to injuries and illness, they haven't had a ton of time to get in a groove, but the Nuggets are a staggering plus-17.3 points per 100 possessions when the aforementioned four players are on the floor.

Previous Rank: 10
Net Rating: +6.9

The New Orleans Pelicans have won five of their last six, and the only loss came against the red-hot Boston Celtics.

There's plenty to highlight here, including the fact that the team is top 10 in both offense and defense, but let's zero in on Jose Alvarado.

Last season, most of his attention came from Grand Theft Alvarado's steals.

And while those extra possessions bring plenty of value, Alvarado is adding to that in 2022-23. His scoring and three-point percentage are up, and he's hit double-figures in scoring in five of his last six games.

Previous Rank: 9
Net Rating: +7.6

The net rating is still a little underwhelming when Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell are both on the floor, but it's improving.

And the Cavs doubling up their losses and leading the league in overall net rating while the All-Star backcourt is still figuring things out should be frightening for the rest of the East.

Individually, both have been spectacular. Mitchell is averaging 30.1 points, 5.7 assists and 3.9 threes. Garland is adding 23.9 points, 8.2 assists and 3.3 threes. Both are well clear of 40 percent from deep.

Once the division of labor between the two is set, Cleveland is going to be a nightmare.

Previous Rank: 2
Net Rating: +3.7

The Milwaukee Bucks got off to a 10-1 start without Khris Middleton, but this recent stretch has been a vivid reminder of how important he is.

Milwaukee is 2-4 in its last six games, and their season-long offensive rating has slid all the way to the bottom 10.

During Middleton's nine-plus seasons with the team, the Bucks have scored 112.0 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and 107.8 with him off.

Previous Rank: 3
Net Rating: +7.3

The Phoenix Suns have had a couple of bad losses since Chris Paul went down with a heel injury (he's missed the last seven games), but on balance, things appear headed in the right direction.

The Suns have the second best net rating in the league, and Cameron Payne may be building some confidence that could pay off later in the season (or in the playoffs).

In his seven starts, Payne is putting up 18.9 points, 6.4 assists and 3.0 threes while shooting 44.7 percent from deep. His offensive box plus/minus has climbed to well above average, which is closer to what he did in his first two seasons in Phoenix than it was in a down 2021-22 campaign.

Given CP3's age (37) and injury history, getting this kind of reliability from Payne is critical.

Previous Rank: 1
Net Rating: +6.9

The Boston Celtics put a hurting on the Dallas Mavericks on Thanksgiving eve, and Jayson Tatum added to an ever-strengthening MVP case.

After dropping 37 on 11-of-24 shooting against Dallas, Tatum is up to 30.6 points per game on the season. It'll be tough for him to catch Luka Dončić or Stephen Curry for the scoring title, but he's a far better defender than both.

With his impact on the less glamorous end of the floor, Boston could very well finish first in the East. All of those factors will lead to serious consideration for Tatum to get the league's highest individual honor.

Now that we're about a quarter of the way into the season, it's fair to start putting a bit of stock into lineup and on/off data.

But there are still only 20 five-man units that have logged at least 100 minutes. It's probably a little safer to stick with total plus/minus than it would be to go with net points per 100 possessions when analyzing lineups.

To that end, here are the top five lineups in total plus/minus:

1. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney (plus-116)
2. Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić (plus-66)
3. Jrue Holiday, Jevon Carter, Grayson Allen, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez (plus-63)
4. De'Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes and Domantas Sabonis (plus-62)
5. Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De'Andre Hunter, John Collins and Clint Capela (plus-54)

Of course, this reinforces the idea that the defending champs are fine, assuming Golden State's bench can get to even below average (instead of dreadful). The gap between the Warriors' starters and second-place Denver's is the same as the gap between second and 61st.

Whether it's in-season development for the youngsters or a trade that solidifies that group, the Warriors really can't waste this campaign from the championship core.

Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum understandably get the bulk of the credit for the New Orleans Pelicans' success, but they have a reserve big who could be the key to bona fide contention.

Larry Nance Jr. is averaging 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks per 75 possessions, with an eye-popping 71.6 true shooting percentage this season.

Jonas Valančiūnas is a bruiser who a lot of opponents don't have an answer for, but Nance makes the team more nimble on offense and switchable on defense. Both of those qualities are exponentially more important in the playoffs.

New Orleans' net rating is a strong plus-8.4 when Valančiūnas and Williamson share the floor, but it climbs to plus-13.6 when Williamson is on the floor with Nance (and the minutes totals for those duos aren't far off).

With his ability to do a bit of everything without demanding many touches, Nance may be the perfect fourth or fifth player in lineups with the aforementioned stars and Herbert Jones.

Stats via NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise noted.