UFC 281: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira Head-to-Toe Breakdown

UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya is one of the most dominant forces in MMA today, but the Nigerian-born New Zealander will soon meet a challenge that many fans doubt he can topple: a fight with hulking Brazilian knockout artist Alex Pereira.

It goes down in the main event of UFC 281 this Saturday, with the Manhattan skyline for a backdrop, and it has captured the attention of the MMA community in a way that few other fights have this year. But it will not be the first time Adesanya and Pereira have met.

The two middleweights twice clashed in the Glory kickboxing ring. Pereira won both times, first by unanimous decision in Shenzhen, China, in 2016, then by knockout a year later in Sao Paulo, and many favor the Brazilian to do it again this Saturday.

Of course, it's a totally different matchup under MMA rules. It remains to be seen if either fighter looks to grapple, but the very fact that option is there changes everything.

Keep scrolling to see how the two former kickboxers match up on paper and for our best guess at the outcome.

Israel Adesanya has beaten some great strikers in the past, most notably Anderson Silva and Robert Whittaker, but he has yet to meet anyone who can match him in the technique department. Alex Pereira can. Not only that, but the Brazilian also packs a ridiculous amount of stopping power, with his left hook being particularly destructive. Ask Sean Strickland about it.

When Adesanya has run into serious knockout threats in the past, he's beaten them with his technique, timing and strategy, but that will be a tall order against Pereira, who has not only beaten him by decision over nine minutes, but knocked him out.

The stats reflect how difficult a matchup this is for Adesanya on the feet.

Pereira actually has him beat in a few key metrics. The Brazilian lands more strikes per minute (6.29 to 3.93) and has the higher striking accuracy rate (60 percent to 49 percent). He absorbs more strikes per minute than Adesanya (3.36 to 2.67), but only has a slightly worse striking defense rate overall (58 percent to 59 percent). Then there's the power differential we mentioned. Pereira has posted five of his six MMA victories by knockout or TKO (83 percent), while Adesanya has done so in 15 of 23 (65 percent).

It's an an extremely close striking matchup on paper, but our calculations suggest that Adesanya will be at a slight disadvantage for as long as this one's on the feet. Now there's a statement you won't encounter very often.

Edge: Pereira

Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira have been in 31 MMA fights collectively, but we have seen almost nothing of either man's submission game. That's pretty amazing, and a testament to how effective both guys are with their striking.

Unfortunately, that means that it is very difficult to say who will have the upper hand should the submission attempts start flying in the UFC 281 main event. There's just not a lot of tape to study. And again, the stats reflect this: Adesanya has attempted just 0.2 submission per 15 minutes in the Octagon, while Pereira has attempted none. Neither guy has ever won a fight by submission outside the Octagon either.

One thing that definitely bears mentioning is that Adesanya is a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Andre Galvao, who remains one of the most successful coaches on the grappling circuit, while Pereira doesn't even seem to be pursuing belt rankings. Of course, there's no real reason the Brazilian needs to be training in a gi right now, and belts only mean so much in the context of an MMA fight anyway, but it's safe to say Adesanya has been learning submissions for longer.

That's about all we've got to go on, but hey, it's something.

Edge: Adesanya

It's just as difficult to determine who has the wrestling edge in this matchup as it was to give somebody the submission advantage, and for the same reason: there's just no footage of either guy doing any offensive wrestling in MMA. And you guessed it, the stats once again reflect the fact. Neither guy has ever attempted a takedown in the Octagon.

We, have, however, seen a bit of their defensive wrestling.

Adesanya was taken down three times in his light heavyweight loss to Jan Blachowicz—the only L on his MMA record—and controlled for over seven minutes. He was also taken down four times in his unanimous-decision win over Robert Whittaker earlier this year, and controlled for just over three-and-a-half minutes.

Pereira has also been taken down in the UFC, hitting the canvas twice apiece in his wins over Andreas Michailidis and Bruno Silva.

We've seen that both guys are vulnerable to takedowns, but that information is pretty much useless to us, because we have no idea if either can even complete a takedown when it counts.

There's really not much to go on, but again, we're going to to give the edge to Adesanya, because he's been competing in MMA for a little longer, has been in more than three times as many fights and has spent more time on the mats with world-class fighters.

Edge: Adesanya

Adesanya's X-Factor: Fight Like an MMA Veteran

We know that Adesanya has lost twice to Pereira in the kickboxing ring. We also know that he isn't much of a grappler. But this isn't a kickboxing fight, and while he hasn't shown us much of his submissions or takedowns, he does have significantly more experience in MMA than Pereira. That means he should have a much better sense of the nuances of an MMA fight, from the feel of the Octagon itself to the way cardio needs to be managed over the course of a 25-minute fight. These are things that cannot be taught and are difficult to measure, but things Adesanya should have a better understanding of than his foe. He needs to weaponize that experience advantage however he's able to.

Alex Pereira's X-Factor: Be a Bully

Pereira is a big middleweight. He's tall, he's rangy and he's strong. It is definitely in his best interest to put those traits to use: to walk Adesanya down with jabs and kicks, hammer him with power shots at mid range and to bully him in the clinch against the cage. It sounds simple, but in a matchup this competitive in terms of technique, it's a very good thing to be the bigger, stronger guy.

It is really hard to say who wins an MMA fight between Adesanya and Pereira, because we don't know anything about their grappling games. We could dissect their striking for paragraphs on end, but any conclusions we draw could be totally irrelevant if it turns out Adesanya has been hiding a lethal submission game or Pereira has taken to double-leg takedowns the way Georges St-Pierre did.

Really, all we can base our prediction on is their striking, and while both men are truly world-class in that department, Pereira's kickboxing victories, clear power edge and slight statistical superiority are difficult to ignore.

It's hard to imagine a world where Adesanya isn't the UFC middleweight champion, but if you ask us, it's time to get ready for one. After a few close rounds, Pereira gets his timing down, lands a big one and then a few more to seal the deal.

Prediction: Alex Pereira by TKO, Rd. 3