College Football Playoff Projections: Week 11 Rankings and Bowl Forecast

In each of the previous eight seasons of the College Football Playoff era, the team that debuted at No. 1 in the CFP rankings made it at least one week before suffering a loss. But that streak came to end when No. 3 Georgia knocked off No. 1 Tennessee on Saturday.

The good news for the Volunteers is they are still in the mix to finish in the Top Four, dropping four spots to No. 5 while Georgia vaults to No. 1.

The same cannot be said for Clemson or Alabama. The Tigers plummeted from No. 4 to No. 10 following their 21-point loss at Notre Dame. While the two-loss Crimson Tide are still within shouting distance at No. 9, they are effectively two games behind LSU in the SEC West (because of the head-to-head tiebreaker) and don't have a realistic path to a conference championship. They're toast too.

So which teams will partake in the first College Football Playoff with neither Alabama nor Clemson in the field?

And what about the other 39 bowl games? Will there be enough six-win teams to fill the field, or is it time to factor the Academic Progress Rate scores of projected five-win teams into the equation?

Please note that these are bowl projections and not some sort of "if the season ended today" exercise. To that end, the combination of each team's win-total betting line and its projected win total according to ESPN's Football Power Index is more important than its record or AP ranking.

The bowl games have been broken into tiers and are presented in ascending order of magnitude.

For the first four tiers of bowls, we'll discuss one team projected for a better bowl than it was one week ago as well as a team that checks in a bit lower in the aftermath of Week 10 results. After touching on the updated CFP projections, we'll wrap things up with a conference-by-conference breakdown of which teams are projected to go to which bowls.

Bahamas (Dec. 16): Buffalo (5-4) vs. UTSA (7-2)
Cure (Dec. 16): Ball State (5-4) vs. Georgia Southern (5-4)
Frisco (Dec. 17): Southern Miss (5-4) vs. UNLV (4-5)
LendingTree (Dec. 17): Coastal Carolina (8-1) vs. Miami (Ohio) (4-5)
New Mexico (Dec. 17): Fresno State (5-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (4-5)
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 19): Appalachian State (5-4) vs. Bowling Green (5-4)
Boca Raton (Dec. 20): South Alabama (7-2) vs. UAB (4-5)
Famous Idaho Potato (Dec. 20): Ohio (6-3) vs. Wyoming (6-3)
New Orleans (Dec. 21): Troy (7-2) vs. Western Kentucky (6-4)
Armed Forces (Dec. 22): Air Force (6-3) vs. East Carolina (6-3)
Independence (Dec. 23): Army (3-5) vs. Memphis (4-5)
Hawai'i (Dec. 24): North Texas (6-4) vs. San Diego State (5-4)
Camellia (Dec. 27): Florida Atlantic (4-5) vs. Marshall (5-4)
Arizona (Dec. 30): Eastern Michigan (5-4) vs. San José State (6-2)

Moving Up: Ball State Cardinals

Mid-week MACtion got underway last week, and Ball State emerged as one of the biggest winners of Tuesday/Wednesday football.

Playing at Kent State, the Cardinals fell behind 13-0 in the first quarter. They went interception-punt-punt on their first three possessions and appeared to be headed for a sub-.500 record.

But then Carson Steele took over.

Ball State's sophomore running back eclipsed the century mark for the fourth consecutive week, going for a career-high 192 rushing yards in a 27-20 victory over the Golden Flashes. His 15-yard touchdown in the second quarter got Ball State rolling, and his 37-yard gain late in the fourth quarter set the Cardinals up for the tiebreaking score.

Ball State needs one more win, though, and the remaining slate [at Toledo, vs. Ohio, at Miami (Ohio)] is a rough one. Still, the Cardinals move into the projected field.

Sliding Down: Army Black Knights

Army didn't actually move, and it is locked into the Independence Bowl if it does become bowl-eligible.

But after a Week 10 loss to Air Force, the lone three-win team still projected to make the cut is as good a spot as any to address the concerning state of #BowlMath.

Fifty-two teams have punched their tickets to bowl season with six wins, and 22 others have (according to the Football Power Index) a greater than 70 percent chance of getting to six wins.

That still leaves eight spots up for grabs for coin flips, which is where Army falls.

The Black Knights have games remaining against UMass and UConn in which they will be heavily favored, a road game against Troy that they're likely to lose and then the classic Army-Navy game on Dec. 10. There's a good chance heading into that game that a bowl bid will be on the line, and a five-win team with a high Academic Progress Rate score will be waiting to find out if it'll go bowling.

(For what it's worth, this is business as usual with three weeks to go. It feels like there's no chance we get to 82 six-win teams, but a bunch of 4-5 squads will go 2-1 down the stretch. Probably at least one 3-6 team wins out too.)

Fenway (Dec. 17): Cincinnati (7-2) vs. Pittsburgh (5-4)
LA (Dec. 17): Boise State (6-3) vs. Washington State (5-4)
Gasparilla (Dec. 23): Houston (5-4) vs. Michigan State (4-5)
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Toledo (6-3) vs. Wisconsin (5-4)
Birmingham (Dec. 27): BYU (5-5) vs. Duke (6-3)
First Responder (Dec. 27): SMU (5-4) vs. Texas Tech (4-5)
Military (Dec. 28): Louisville (6-3) vs. UCF (7-2)

Moving Up: Michigan State Spartans

One of the biggest surprises of Week 10 came when Michigan State went on the road and upset No. 16 Illinois as a 16-point underdog.

The Spartans defense has been a hot mess all season, and when Tommy DeVito found Isaiah Williams for a 60-yard touchdown midway through the first quarter, it looked like just another day in the life of MSU football.

But in the third quarter, the Spartans benefited from a botched punt and a fumble on back-to-back possessions, scoring touchdowns on drives that began at the Illinois 29 and the Illinois 41. The Illini couldn't recover, and Michigan State won 23-15.

Sparty is 4-5 with home games coming up against Rutgers and Indiana. The Spartans should win both to get to six wins.

Sliding Down: Miami Hurricanes and Texas A&M Aggies

No one dropped down to this tier this week, so let's instead say a brief eulogy for two high-profile teams that fell out of the bowl picture following yet another loss.

Texas A&M at least had an excuse this week as a flu outbreak ravaged the roster. The Aggies still had do-it-all star running back Devon Achane, who scored three touchdowns. However, Florida repeatedly gashed their depleted defense as the Gators won 41-24.

It was A&M's fifth consecutive loss, which is the program's worst skid since five straight L's in 1980. The Aggies are 3-6 and would need to win out against Auburn, UMass and LSU to get to six wins. It's not impossible, but it's highly unlikely.

Elsewhere, Florida State annihilated Miami 45-3 in what ties for the ninth-most lopsided loss in program history. While FSU moved the ball at will, Miami's longest passing play of the day went for 15 yards. In one stretch of six consecutive possessions, the Hurricanes moved the ball fewer than 10 yards down the field before giving it back to the Seminoles.

Miami is 4-5 with road games remaining against Georgia Tech and Clemson and a home game against Pittsburgh. Another "not impossible, but highly unlikely" proposition.

Both Miami and Texas A&M have a less than 30 percent chance of reaching six wins.

Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 27): Iowa (5-4) vs. Kansas (6-3)
Holiday (Dec. 28): Florida State (6-3) vs. Washington (7-2)
Liberty (Dec. 28): Oklahoma (5-4) vs. Liberty (8-1)
Texas (Dec. 28): Baylor (6-3) vs. South Carolina (6-3)
Pinstripe (Dec. 29): Purdue (5-4) vs. Syracuse (6-3)
Duke's Mayo (Dec. 30): Minnesota (6-3) vs. Notre Dame (6-3)
Sun (Dec. 30): Oregon State (6-3) vs. Wake Forest (6-3)
Music City (Dec. 31): Arkansas (5-4) vs. Maryland (6-3)

Moving Up: Liberty Flames

The Liberty Bowl is supposed to be a Big 12 vs. SEC game. But with four SEC teams projected for New Year's Six games and only 10 total SEC teams projected for at least six wins as both Missouri and Texas A&M drop out of the field, it's unlikely to fill all its spots in affiliated bowls.

Maybe the Liberty Bowl becomes Liberty's bowl.

The Flames improved to 8-1 with a road win over Arkansas. They almost messed around and blew a 21-0 first-half lead, but they stuffed the Razorbacks' attempted game-tying two-point conversion with a little over a minute remaining in regulation.

With games remaining against UConn, Virginia Tech and New Mexico State, Liberty should get to 11-1. But don't start holding your breath for a New Year's Six bowl, Flames fans. Liberty wasn't in the initial CFP Top 25, so climbing all the way into the Top 10 to secure the lone wild-card spot in the Cotton Bowl against the top Group of Five champion is unlikely at best.

All the same, Hugh Freeze has won at least eight games in each of his four seasons in Lynchburg and will be a top name to monitor in this year's coaching carousel, even in spite of his unceremonious exit from Ole Miss in 2017.

Sliding Down: Arkansas Razorbacks

Welcome to Newton's Third Law of Bowl Projection Dynamics. For every action, there must be an equal but opposite reaction. While Liberty is on the rise following its win over Arkansas, the Razorbacks take a big step in the wrong direction for that loss.

The Hogs have lost four of their last six games, and they have a realistic chance to lose each of their remaining games against LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri. (The Battle Line Rivalry may well be 5-6 vs. 5-6 for a spot in a bowl game.)

They may well lose those games because their defense is pathetic. Arkansas has allowed at least 21 points in each of its nine contests, and goodness knows both LSU and Ole Miss can put up points in bunches. It'll be a photo finish for what was an AP Top 10 team in mid-September.

Las Vegas (Dec. 17): Kentucky (6-3) vs. Utah (7-2)
Alamo (Dec. 29): Kansas State (6-3) vs. UCLA (8-1)
Cheez-It (Dec. 29): North Carolina (8-1) vs. Oklahoma State (6-3)
Gator (Dec. 30): Florida (5-4) vs. NC State (7-2)
Citrus (Jan. 2): Ole Miss (8-1) vs. Penn State (7-2)
ReliaQuest (Jan. 2): Illinois (7-2) vs. Mississippi State (6-3)

Moving Up: Florida Gators

We've got Liberty in the Liberty Bowl, so why not the Gators in the Gator Bowl?

After the 41-24 victory over short-handed Texas A&M, Florida is back in the winning column and back above .500. There haven't been many "Anthony Richardson for Heisman" types of games since the opening flourish against Utah, but this was one of them. The Gators QB had two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns with no turnovers.

Florida's four losses this season were against Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU and Georgia, and only the game against the Bulldogs got out of hand. The Gators figure to win at least one of their remaining games against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Florida State and possibly all three of them.

Even if they win out, though, they have no realistic hope of climbing another tier to a New Year's Six game. The ReliaQuest Bowl is probably their ceiling.

Sliding Down: North Carolina Tar Heels and Ole Miss Rebels

North Carolina improved to 8-1 with a road win over Virginia on Saturday, while 8-1 Ole Miss was idle.

You might be wondering how in the world they both got knocked out of the New Year's Six picture.

Well, in UNC's case, the Tar Heels were previously projected for the Orange Bowl, which goes to the ACC's top non-College Football Playoff team. But now that Clemson is no longer projected for the CFP, the Tigers get that spot.

At least for now. They'll settle it on the field in the ACC championship in a little less than a month.

In Ole Miss' case, the Rebels got leapfrogged by LSU and are still projected to finish behind Alabama.

Like UNC, Ole Miss gets to settle it on the field in this weekend's clash with the Crimson Tide. However, if the Rebels lose that home game (in which Alabama is favored), they'll be third in the SEC West and fifth in the SEC overall. It is not likely that the SEC's No. 5 team will edge out the Pac-12's No. 2 team for the NY6 wild-card spot in the Cotton Bowl.

Orange (Dec. 30): Clemson (8-1) vs. Alabama (7-2)
Sugar (Dec. 31): LSU (7-2) vs. Texas (6-3)
Cotton (Jan. 2): Tulane (8-1) vs. USC (8-1)
Rose (Jan. 2): Michigan (9-0) vs. Oregon (8-1)

Making Sense of the Week 10 Chaos

Both the Cotton Bowl and the Rose Bowl remain unchanged from one week ago. Michigan inexplicably trailed Rutgers at halftime before a 38-0 rout in the second half for what looks like a blowout, and USC let California hang around until the bitter end in a 41-35 victory. But they both prevailed and remain on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff picture.

The Orange and Sugar Bowls, however, both received face-lifts, going from North Carolina vs. Ole Miss and Alabama vs. TCU to what you see above.

On the LSU front, welcome to the "Pandora's Box" situation that we mentioned one week ago when the Tigers debuted at No. 10 in the CFP rankings.

They are in the driver's seat to win the SEC West with three games remaining against opponents who are not yet bowl-eligible (Arkansas, UAB and Texas A&M). If they win out and beat Georgia in the SEC championship, don't they almost have to finish in the Top Four, considering they started at No. 10? There has never been a two-loss team in the playoff, but with Clemson and Alabama both out of the picture, the path for LSU to get in is wide-open.

Elsewhere, as 9-0 TCU takes what previously was Clemson's spot in the playoff picture, a new Big 12 team slides into the Sugar Bowl. And with Texas' win at Kansas State whilst Oklahoma State lost to Kansas, it's looking like the Longhorns will be that team.

A fun little catch-22 is in play this week, though, as TCU plays at Texas. If the Longhorns get the W, it knocks the Horned Frogs out of the playoff picture and back down to the Sugar Bowl, most likely bumping Texas down a tier to either the Alamo Bowl or Cheez-It Bowl. If Texas loses to TCU, it may still be replaced in the Sugar Bowl by the winner of the Kansas State-Baylor game. The race for the non-TCU spot in the Big 12 championship will be fun to monitor.

If this ends up being the first College Football Playoff without Alabama or Clemson, it would be fun to see those teams square off in the Orange Bowl. If that glorified consolation game doesn't finally bring us an expanded playoff field, it's possible nothing will.

Peach (Dec. 31): No. 1 Georgia (9-0) vs. No. 4 TCU (9-0)
Fiesta (Dec. 31): No. 2 Ohio State (9-0) vs. No. 3 Tennessee (8-1)

National Championship (Jan. 9): No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State

For as wild as Week 10 was atop the rankings, the only change to the projected playoff picture is that TCU tentatively replaces Clemson as the No. 4 seed.

We expected Georgia to win at home against Tennessee. While the Bulldogs were the superior team Saturday, it wasn't a "kick those fraudulent Volunteers to the curb" type of blowout.

So long as Tennessee handles its remaining business against Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt, it's likely the Volunteers finish the year in the Top Four.

They have road wins over LSU and Pittsburgh, as well as home wins over Alabama, Kentucky and Florida. Regardless of whether Michigan or Ohio State loses "The Game" on Nov. 26, it won't have a resume near as impressive as Tennessee's.

The same might be true in the argument between Tennessee and a one-loss Pac-12 champion. Out of Oregon, UCLA and USC, the Ducks would have the most impressive 12-1 resume. However, they also lost by 46 to Georgia, which sure feels like a tiebreaker in Tennessee's favor. We will, of course, revisit that debate if the Ducks win out against Washington, Utah, Oregon State and either UCLA or USC in the Pac-12 title game.

Basically, Tennessee already had a realistic shot, and it got a whole lot more viable after both Alabama and Clemson lost.

But now all eyes are on undefeated TCU.

Can the Horned Frogs win their remaining games at Texas, at Baylor and vs. Iowa State? They'll likely be underdogs in the first two, and while they should beat the Cyclones, that becomes a colossal trap game if they get there at 11-0 and start thinking about the Big 12 championship.

If they finish the fight and get to 13-0, though, they have to finish in the Top Four.

With an undefeated record and what could be nine wins over teams that qualify for bowl season, it would be blasphemy to leave that team out in favor of two of a one-loss Pac-12 champion, 11-1 Tennessee, 11-1 Michigan/Ohio State and an 11-2 SEC champion LSU.

Here is the breakdown of bowl projections listed alphabetically by conference. New Year's Six games have been italicized and underlined to help those of you who scrolled to the bottom to find the marquee bowls.

American Athletic (seven teams): Cincinnati (Fenway), East Carolina (Armed Forces), Houston (Gasparilla), Memphis (Independence), SMU (First Responder), Tulane (Cotton), UCF (Military)

Atlantic Coast (nine teams): Clemson (Orange), Duke (Birmingham), Florida State (Holiday), Louisville (Military), North Carolina (Cheez-It), NC State (Gator), Pittsburgh (Fenway), Syracuse (Pinstripe), Wake Forest (Sun)

Big 12 (eight teams): Baylor (Texas), Kansas (Guaranteed Rate), Kansas State (Alamo), Oklahoma (Liberty), Oklahoma State (Cheez-It), TCU (Peach), Texas (Sugar), Texas Tech (First Responder)

Big Ten (10 teams): Illinois (ReliaQuest), Iowa (Guaranteed Rate), Maryland (Music City), Michigan (Rose), Michigan State (Gasparilla), Minnesota (Duke's Mayo), Ohio State (Fiesta), Penn State (Citrus), Purdue (Pinstripe), Wisconsin (Quick Lane)

Conference USA (six teams): Florida Atlantic (Camellia), Middle Tennessee (New Mexico), North Texas (Hawai'i), UAB (Boca Raton), UTSA (Bahamas), Western Kentucky (New Orleans)

Independents (four teams): Army (Independence), BYU (Birmingham), Liberty (Liberty), Notre Dame (Duke's Mayo)

Mid-American (seven teams): Ball State (Cure), Bowling Green (Myrtle Beach), Buffalo (Bahamas), Eastern Michigan (Arizona), Miami (Ohio) (LendingTree), Ohio (Famous Idaho Potato), Toledo (Quick Lane)

Mountain West (seven teams): Air Force (Armed Forces), Boise State (LA), Fresno State (New Mexico), San Diego State (Hawai‘i), San José State (Arizona), UNLV (Frisco), Wyoming (Famous Idaho Potato)

Pac-12 (seven teams): Oregon (Rose), Oregon State (Sun), UCLA (Alamo), USC (Cotton), Utah (Las Vegas), Washington (Holiday), Washington State (LA)

Southeastern (10 teams): Alabama (Orange), Arkansas (Music City), Florida (Gator), Georgia (Peach), Kentucky (Las Vegas), LSU (Sugar), Mississippi State (ReliaQuest), Ole Miss (Citrus), South Carolina (Texas), Tennessee (Fiesta)

Sun Belt (seven teams): Appalachian State (Myrtle Beach), Coastal Carolina (LendingTree), Georgia Southern (Cure), Marshall (Camellia), South Alabama (Boca Raton), Southern Miss (Frisco), Troy (New Orleans)

Kerry Miller covers college football, men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.