UFC 281: Best Bets for Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira and the Rest of the Card

If you're not intrigued, you're not trying.

The UFC will bring its combative circus back to the World's Most Famous Arena on Saturday night, and the latest extravaganza is topped by a unique rivalry that's transitioning from the kickboxing ring to the octagonal spotlight.

Middleweight kingpin Israel Adesanya—he of the three-year, five-defense run as UFC champion—will stand opposite Brazilian insurgent Alex Pereira, a decorated title-holder in his chosen sport with a pair of victories, one by decision and one by KO, over Adesanya.

UFC 281 will feature their crossover encounter, scheduled for five rounds, atop a five-fight pay-per-view card that'll also include a strawweight title match between incumbent Carla Esparza and menacing ex-champ Zhang Weili, while the show's three-hole is filled by failed former lightweight title challengers Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler.

The paid portion of the Saturday afternoon (U.S. time) show consists of five fights and will be carried by ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET. The five-bout early prelim show begins at 6 p.m. on ESPN+, and another four-bout prelim portion goes live at 8 p.m. and is available on both ESPN+ and ESPN News.

The B/R combat and betting teams got together to assess the entire 14-bout show, taking a look at the latest odds posted by DraftKings and considering how the fights are likely to end and where some possibilities for wagering profit might be found.

So, like we said, about that intrigue thing.

Adesanya is as close to middleweight dominance as there's been since Anderson Silva's prime, having won each of his 12 fights in the UFC's 185-pound weight class.

In fact, the only time he's lost in the Octagon was in a chase for greatness at 205 pounds, where he was taken down and manhandled by then-champ Jan Blachowicz.

But then there's that pesky kickboxing thing.

Not only has Pereira, now 35, beaten Adesanya twice, but he also left him flat on his back in the center of the ring after connecting with a left hook in the third round of their 2017 fight at the Glory of Heroes event in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Adesanya has been a full-time MMA practitioner ever since, and Pereira joined him in the UFC last November and has since racked up three wins, including a devastating first-round stoppage of Sean Strickland on the undercard of Adesanya's last fight in July.

The champion is a -205 pick on the moneyline alongside Pereira's +175 billing, but both men are available for plus money if you're willing to risk a couple of bucks forecasting a specific method of victory, and even more so if you double up with a particular round.

Being the adventurous types we are, it's awfully hard to watch the tape of Pereira's KO victory over Adesanya and not want to cash in on the idea of him repeating it. So even though another clinical five-rounder by the Stylebender should surprise no one, we're riding the would-be upset wave all the way to the betting window.

The B/R Pick: Alex Pereira to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+1200)

Of course, adventure only goes so far when there's money on the line.

Though Esparza is a respected veteran with a 14-fight UFC pedigree and two-time incumbent status when it comes to the company's strawweight title, it's sort of difficult to envision a lot of success for her when the lights go down at Madison Square Garden.

She's matched up with former champion Weili, who's not only taller and younger but also appears light years more dominant in a would-be standup fight, and perhaps even or just barely outgunned if the fight happens to find its way to the floor.

Weili retired former champion Joanna Jędrzejczyk with a second-round KO at UFC 275 in June, ending a two-fight skid (one by KO, one by split decision) against the fighter from whom Esparza subsequently picked up the belt by split nod, Rose Namajunas.

Not surprisingly, Weili is a -320 favorite from the challenger's position compared to Esparza's +265 billing as a champion in the first defense of her second title reign. But while there's plus-money to be had with nearly any forecast of an Esparza victory, the fleeting possibility makes it equivalent to launching currency out the window of a moving vehicle.

Esparza has been stopped by strikes twice in the UFC and was finished once by submission in the Bellator promotion, so the prospect of her not reaching the fifth-round bell is not ridiculous to consider. And given that Weili's two KOs in the company have lasted just a few seconds more than eight minutes combined, a first-rounder here feels pretty safe.

The B/R Pick: Zhang Weili to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+425)

As No. 3 fights go, this one's pretty strong.

In fact, had it not been for recently deposed lightweight surprise Charles Oliveira, the matchup between ex-challengers Poirier and Chandler might have had more riding on it.

Lest anyone forget, Chandler was a high-profile arrival from the Bellator promotion and found himself in a title fight in just his second octagonal appearance, but he was dispatched by Oliveira via second-round TKO in the main event at UFC 262 in Houston.

At UFC 269, Oliveira was matched with Poirier, who was coming off a trilogy-clinching stoppage of Conor McGregor and had the Brazilian in some trouble before succumbing to a standing rear-naked choke 62 seconds into the third round.

Poirier hasn't fought since and Chandler has appeared just twice, losing a decision to Justin Gaethje—whom Oliveira then submitted after beating Poirier—and KO'ing the lingering husk that was Tony Ferguson with a second-round front kick at UFC 274 in May.

Now 33, Poirier arrives as a solid -210 favorite to Chandler's +180 underdog, and the apparent enmity between the two has each promising not only victory but also violence.

"I'm going to go out there, start fast, get in his face fast, hopefully make him second guess himself pretty fast, mix it up," Chandler told Yahoo Sports. "Do exactly what I need to do in all areas of mixed martial arts, and go out there and get my hand raised.

"But I do think I get the finish."

Doing so by KO, TKO or DQ would yield +350 payouts for those believing in Chandler and an even heftier +900 if he scores his eighth career submission. Poirier offers slightly less of a windfall in both those instances inside the distance, but the idea of him winning a slugfest that goes the non-title distance of 15 minutes seems a little more foreseeable.

The B/R Pick: Dustin Poirier to Win by Unanimous Decision (+330)

You've made it this far, so you clearly recognize the concept of risk vs. reward.

And while favorites and moneylines are worthwhile options, a lofty prop or parlay is nice too.

This card isn't hurting for options, even outside the top three bouts.

Here are a few we'd suggest you take a look at:

Round and Method Betting: Chris Gutierrez to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+700)

Chris Gutierrez reminds precisely no one of the UFC's all-time greats at bantamweight. Nevertheless, the New Jersey-based 31-year-old is 6-1-1 in eight company-connected bouts and has won three straight (most recently by TKO) since a draw two years ago. He faces a foe in Frankie Edgar who's certainly more decorated and about whom more lofty post-retirement stories will be written. But in a Saturday vacuum, this one's a rout.

Moneyline: Ryan Spann (+175)

Remember when Dominick Reyes was the next big thing? He started his career with 12 straight wins, pushed Jon Jones to the limit in a title fight many folks thought he deserved and was primed to capture a vacant belt seven months later. Instead, he was KO'd by Jan Blachowicz and again by Jiří Procházka, and now he faces a version of Ryan Spann who's 6-2 in the UFC with a pair of KOs and a pair of submissions. Momentum matters.

Moneyline: Molly McCann (+320)

There's every reason to believe Erin Blanchfield really is the next big thing. She's only 23, has three wins in three UFC starts and defeated fellow prospect Miranda Maverick by unanimous decision at UFC 269 last December. But she has a difficult test in front of her in the form of Molly McCann, who's won three straight and six of nine in the Octagon since arriving in 2018. Would a clear Blanchfield win be shocking? No. But neither would a McCann grinder.

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