Buying or Selling 5 NBA Breakout Players

It's easy to be a prisoner of the moment when an NBA player rockets out to a hot start.

We want to believe that a strong early run will be sustainable. That a suddenly scorching shooter will never cool off. That a handful of eye-opening games will stretch across weeks and months.

It doesn't always work that way.

So while it's true that some of this season's more unexpected beginnings will last, some won't. Flash back to a year ago for proof. If you'd bought every purported breakout in early November 2021, you would have been convinced Harrison Barnes was going to make an All-Star Game and Cole Anthony was going to shoot just under 40 percent from three rather than the field.

Leaning on a combination of stats and gut instinct, we'll do what we can to separate the starts that'll last from the ones that'll fade.

The timing and circumstances just feel right for Donovan Mitchell's level-up year, don't they?

For starters, this is Mitchell's age-26 season, putting him smack in his early prime. Given his production to this point and steady development across the last several years, Mitchell probably should have been on everyone's preseason breakout list—even if, given what he'd already achieved, a "breakout" would have meant performing at an All-NBA, legitimate-MVP-buzz level.

Moving from a Utah Jazz team whose expiration date had already passed to an up-and-coming Cleveland Cavaliers squad sealed the deal. The change-of-scenery narrative is cliche, but how could anyone discount the vibe-cleansing power of swapping out the former situation for the latter? It could not have been easy to perform in Utah with the dual undercurrents of strife between stars and repeated playoff disappointment such constant topics of discussion.

Cleveland, where virtually all of the principal parties are young, hungry and conspicuously happy to play with one another, must feel like a breath of the freshest air.

Mitchell is currently averaging a career-high 31.1 points and 7.1 assists per game, and his 61.1 true shooting percentage is on pace to shatter his previous personal best. A league-leading 39.7 minutes per game signals that some of Mitchell's counting numbers will come down when his playing time returns to reasonable levels; part of his early surge owes to a larger role with Darius Garland missing time because of an eyelid laceration. But that argument might also cut the other way. With Garland back, Mitchell will see less defensive attention and benefit from playing alongside a stellar setup man who also happens to be a defense-warping three-point shooter.

During a thrilling overtime win against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday, Mitchell hit clutch shots down the stretch and shone throughout the game—whether Garland was on the floor or not.

Maybe he won't win MVP, but Mitchell's early work feels real enough to proclaim he'll at least be a factor in that discussion. His first All-NBA nod feels like a given.

Verdict: Buy

Kevin Porter Jr. is making a little progress, which is really all the Houston Rockets can ask of a 22-year-old kinda-sorta point guard playing for a losing team. We still have to be careful about conflating improved cosmetic stats in the early going with a genuine breakout.

KPJ is putting up 20.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game through Houston's first nine contests. Only 11 other players are matching those averages this season, and nine of them have multiple All-NBA nods on their resumes. That statistical company would seem to suggest Porter is destined for greatness, but all it really shows is the deceptive effect of higher usage in a "somebody's got to get numbers" environment.

OK, that's harsh. Porter has grown specifically as a foul-drawer and deserves broader credit for going from a pariah with maturity issues to a legitimately promising young guard. He's overcome a ton of obstacles that would have ruined most of us. But we have to also note that he's currently posting the lowest points per shot attempt of his career (which has not been one marked by high efficiency to begin with) and hasn't exactly made a positive impact on either end.

The Rockets score 3.0 fewer points per 100 possessions and allow 4.0 more on defense with Porter on the floor than off. Even conceding that on-off figures are deafeningly noisy this early in the year, it's hard to say someone whose presence on the court coincides with a minus-7.0 net rating swing is truly breaking out.

Verdict: Sell

Teammate Malik Beasley provided all the breakout hype Lauri Markkanen needed after the Utah Jazz downed the Memphis Grizzlies on Halloween.

"He's an All-Star," Beasley told reporters, hardly a hot take after Markkanen's 31 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks against a notably tough opponent.

On display that night: genuine three-level scoring, rim protection, the willingness to make the extra pass and an "oh, this guy is serious" level of confidence.

Nothing that has happened since puts the lie to Beasley's belief. Markkanen is averaging 21.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 0.9 blocks per game during the Jazz's surprisingly strong start. He's holding opponents to a 55.6 percent conversion rate inside six feet when designated as the primary defender. For context, among players who covered as many as Markkanen's 7.7 opponent attempts per game last year, only Evan Mobley did a better job of limiting efficiency.

The value of a 7-footer who can spread the floor, punish mismatches at the rim, get his own shot and operate as either a wing defender or a paint protector is tough to overstate.

There might even be room for improvement here. Markkanen is a career 36.2 percent shooter from long distance, but the deep ball has only fallen for him at a 29.3 percent clip so far. If and when his incredible 65.9 percent hit rate on twos dips, the Finnisher can make up for it from beyond the arc.

Verdict: Buy

We have to keep the parameters very narrow here because Tyrese Maxey's work to this point in the season warrants so much admiration.

Already an efficient three-point shooter and finisher at the rim coming into the year, the Philadelphia 76ers guard has been better than ever in those high-value areas. His 46.8 percent knockdown rate from long distance is ahead of last year's 42.7 percent figure, and Maxey has climbed from 63.0 percent to 66.0 percent at the basket. Each of those numbers is elite.

And the jets? Yeah, those are still firing at levels that shut down any debate about who the fastest end-to-end player in the league is.

Understand: Maxey is a brilliant offensive weapon. That was true a year ago, and it's even more obvious today. But this is not a breakout. It's a continuation of Maxey's growth that many saw coming and one that we need to emphasize isn't yet complete. All of this still comes from a place of optimism.

So instead of noting how Maxey, just like every year of his career, is dragging down the Sixers defense by a significant margin (9.5 more points allowed per 100 possessions with him on the floor), or how he's so far failed to convert all that athletic burst into a high steal rate, maybe we can just agree that the young guard who's never had a bad day isn't close to fully formed.

Call it a cop-out if you like, but Maxey has so much potential and so much more room to improve that bumps in his shooting numbers and the resulting scoring spike from 17.5 to 24.2 points per game still somehow don't feel like a true breakout. To this point, he's been no higher than third on opposing scouting reports, but that's about to change. With James Harden set to miss a month with a tendon strain in his foot, per Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, Maxey will get a real shot to ascend as his team's clear No. 2 option behind Joel Embiid. He hasn't peaked yet, but he's about to get a golden opportunity.

Verdict: Sell...for the moment

If you blink during a Sacramento Kings game, there's a good chance you'll miss Kevin Huerter drilling a three.

The 24-year-old has been that hot from long distance to start the season, as evidenced by his 51.8 percent accuracy on 8.0 three-point tries per game. Obviously, he's not going to keep that up over the course of the year, but Huerter doesn't need to finish the season as the best shooter in the league to justify a breakout campaign.

For the millionth time, we're learning that circumstance and situation matter to all but the most dominant superstars. With the Atlanta Hawks, Huerter was just one of several bodies orbiting a heliocentric Trae Young offense. You'd notice flashes of intriguing ball-handling and playmaking from the 6'7" wing, but only in between long stretches of supporting spot-up duty. Granted, Huerter won't continue to drain a totally obscene 63.2 percent of his pull-up threes (he was at 29.9 percent last year). But it's not the strangest development when a player who had obvious on-ball skills looks more comfortable across the board when he's part of an offense that gives him a chance to work with the rock more often.

Huerter has developed special chemistry with Domantas Sabonis, a stellar passer for a big, and the variety of looks that stem from that pairing should only further diversify as the season goes on. And that's the key: Huerter can do a lot more than his previous body of work seemed to suggest.

Normal development probably accounts for some of Huerter's apparent improvement this season, and we shouldn't discount the possibility that this is really all about the addition of the headband. But it's also starting to feel like the Hawks simply weren't letting him explore the studio space enough. Watching him cut, handle in the pick-and-roll and create his own looks this year, it's hard to fathom how Huerter had never averaged more than 12.2 points per game. It also makes it easier to believe his current averages of 18.9 points and 3.9 assists are legit.

Verdict: Buy

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Thursday, Nov. 3. Salary info via Spotrac.