The 10 Most Important Matchups of the Astros vs. Phillies World Series

The upcoming World Series showdown between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies is a historic mismatch based on their regular-season records, but that's not what will decide the series.

As for what will, allow us to share some notions.

We've taken a deep dive into 10 particular matchups that could swing the Astros-Phillies Fall Classic in one direction or the other. These cover all sorts of factors, including how both teams will deal with a particularly long break, assorted hitting and pitching components and one area where one of the teams will be up against itself.

Now then, let's go ahead and break 'em down.

Both the Astros and the Phillies last played on Sunday, when they became the first pair of teams to clinch their league's pennant on the same day since 1992:

With the World Series not set to start until Friday, the Astros and Phillies are thus going to begin the series after a four-day break. That's far from unprecedented, but it's a rare one. A mutual break that long happened only once (in 2014) between 2003 and 2021.

Therefore, it's fair to wonder if rust will be a factor, though it would seem to be a greater threat to the Phillies.

The Astros are a perfect 7-0 in the playoffs despite getting a five-day break between the end of their regular season and the start of the American League Division Series. As for the Phillies, the All-Star break accounts for the only time they've had a four-day layoff this year.

Does the fact that the Phillies lost four of five immediately after the break mean anything in this regard? Almost certainly not, and yet it is the kind of thing that makes one go "hmmm..."

Considering what they've gotten from Jose Altuve, it's kind of amazing that the Astros are still standing in the playoffs, much less unbeaten.

The 2017 American League MVP is 3-for-32 out of Houston's leadoff spot, though that admittedly marks an improvement on the hitless streak with which he started the proceedings.

The three hits that Altuve recorded in the last two games of the American League Championship Series were less than crushed. He had a well-placed double, a single that barely escaped the infield and another single that didn't.

More so than a case of bad luck, his slump is one of bad swing decisions. Consider his rate of swings outside the strike zone, which is up from 28 percent during the regular season to 41 percent in the postseason.

Yet given that he ranks ninth and second on the all-time lists for hits and home runs, respectively, in the postseason, the Astros can trust in Altuve's track record. In the event that he does start living up to it again, they'll have their table-setter back.

The Phillies also have a brand-name hitter in the leadoff spot, and his playoff experience has been a tale of two seasons so far.

Kyle Schwarber went all the way off between Games 1 and 4 of the National League Championship Series, particularly in the sense that three of his six hits left the yard, and almost literally in the case of his 488-foot shot from Game 1 of the NLCS:

On either side of those four games, however, Schwarber is just 1-for-21 with eight strikeouts.

His performance isn't that surprising, mind you. Schwarber has long been a mercurial hitter and especially so in 2022. Though he clubbed an NL-high 46 home runs during the regular season, he did so while hitting just .218. That's the lowest batting average ever for a hitter who clubbed at least 46 home runs.

The Phillies know from the first two rounds of the playoffs that they don't need Schwarber to be at his best for the team to play winning baseball. And yet, Schwarber at his best is surely what they prefer.

If you want to get technical, what Aaron Nola throws is a knuckle-curveball. There are important grip-, spin- and velocity-based differences between that and a regular curveball.

Either way, it's a beauty of a pitch:

The knuckle-curveball has been both more prevalent and more effective for Nola—who's likely to start Game 1 of the World Series for the Phillies— in the playoffs. Its usage is up to 29.8 percent from 26.5 percent in the regular season, and opposing batters are only 4-for-25 with seven strikeouts against it.

None of this is music to the ears of Astros hitters. They were good-not-great against all curveballs this season but only tied for 18th in wOBA against all pitches below 80 mph. That's where Nola's Uncle Knuckle Charlie typically lives.

Still, this matchup could be determined by who adjusts first. It's up to the Astros to find a way to hit or at least lay off Nola's knuckle-curveball, and to him to use his other pitches effectively after or even before they make that adjustment.

With regard to Justin Verlander and his four-seam fastball, there ought to be zero reasons to worry. And yet, there are.

By way of its minus-24 run value, the Astros veteran's four-seamer was among the best pitches of the regular season. That's why it's shocking to see it with a plus-2.0 run value in the postseason, wherein batters are 6-for-15 with three extra-base hits against it.

The Phillies, meanwhile, feast on four-seamers. And unlike the Astros, this is true of both the regular season and the postseason. To wit: they're slugging .485 against four-seamers in the latter, compared to just .342 for Houston.

There is a catch here, however. Whereas Verlander's signature heater got knocked around by the Seattle Mariners in the first game of the American League Division Series, it was back on point his last time out for Game 1 of the ALCS opposite the New York Yankees.

It helped that Verlander had extra velocity in the latter contest, though it also helped that he didn't have to face as many left-handed batters. With Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh set to take their hacks, Verlander won't have that advantage against the Phillies.

Speaking of ace starters with signature fastballs, Zack Wheeler has been having a fair bit more success with his so far in the postseason.

The pitch is arguably the source of the 1.78 ERA that he posted in four playoff starts en route to the World Series. He used it 49 percent of the time, and it held batters to just four hits in 38 at-bats, with eight strikeouts.

It's to their credit that the Astros had the most productive offense against four-seamers in the regular season by run value. It's not to their credit, however, that the postseason has been a different story.

This bodes well for Wheeler, and even more so if he can follow the same formula that others have recently had success with against Houston. Whereas it was generally low in the regular season, the location pattern of four-seamers against Astros hitters has since shifted higher.

Of course, it may be Wheeler who finds himself in trouble if he doesn't make this adjustment. Either way, he'll have to be careful against Houston's two best high fastball hitters: Altuve and Yordan Álvarez.

Though the Phillies had some notable non-home run hits in the first two rounds of the playoffs, the National League Championship Series reinforced just how important power is to their offense.

They clubbed 10 home runs to the San Diego Padres' 6, with six coming just in the last two games of the five-game contest. None of those was bigger than the one that came off Harper's bat in the eighth inning of Game 5.

Framber Valdez, though, might not be impressed.

So good at getting batters to hit the ball on the ground is the Astros lefty that he allowed the lowest fly-ball percentage since Derek Lowe in 2003 during the regular season. So it has gone in the playoffs, where only six of 32 batted balls off him have been fly balls.

This speaks to just how hard it is for batters to get under Valdez's sinker and curveball. If Phillies hitters can't find ways to do so when they face him, they're going to need to bring back the long-form offense that worked for them earlier in the postseason.

No matter how you slice them and their signature pitches, there's no denying that Verlander and Valdez vs. Nola and Wheeler is about as good as it gets for matchups of ace duos.

As for each team's other likely starters, suffice it to say there's an apparent mismatch.

Houston has Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier. They combined for a 2.57 ERA as starters during the regular season, and so far in the playoffs their three starts have yielded a 1.68 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 16.1 innings.

The Phillies have Ranger Suárez and either Noah Syndergaard or Bailey Falter. Suárez has only been good for two trips through the lineup thus far in the postseason, while Syndergaard was only good for one trip in his lone start in the NLDS. Falter, of course, lived up to his namesake in failing to escape the first inning in Game 4 of the NLCS.

As much as we want to both-sides this thing, there's frankly no question that the starting pitching advantage will shift dramatically in favor of the Astros after the first two games of the series. The Phillies will simply have to overcome the odds.

A quick look at the Astros and Phillies bullpen reveals that the advantage there also leans heavily toward the former.

Houston's relievers led the junior circuit with a 2.90 ERA in the regular season and have improbably been even stingier in the postseason. They've permitted all of three earned runs over 33 innings, and basically everyone has contributed to some degree or another.

And yet, for its part, the Phillies bullpen no longer resembles the faulty unit that posted a 3.98 ERA in the regular season. Its ERA is a solid 3.19 in the playoffs, which is largely thanks to the trio of Seranthony Domínguez, José Alvarado and David Robertson.

Together, those three have struck out 30 batters and racked up a 2.33 ERA over 19.1 innings thus far in the playoffs. Domínguez and Alvarado have been bringing the heat, combining to throw 39 fastballs over 100 mph.

So while there's no doubt that Houston has the deeper pen, it's arguably a push if the focus is narrowed to the guys who'll be handling the later innings. The Phillies will just need to find ways to make those count.

If there's one area where nobody can even pretend that the Astros and Phillies are on equal footing, it's defense.

Here's how they compared in defensive efficiency (i.e., the rate at which they turned balls in play into outs) during the regular season:

• Astros: .719 (3rd in MLB)
• Phillies: .687 (T-24th in MLB)

This disparity has more or less played out in the postseason. The Astros have had nary an issue on defense, whereas the Phillies' defense directly led to a loss in Game 2 of the NLDS and has even given them further headaches in games they won.

This is potentially a recipe for disaster against the Astros. Just ask the Yankees, whose defensive miscues in Game 3 and Game 4 of the ALCS were immediately followed by run-scoring events that helped lead to their demise.

So just to be safe, the Phillies better be ready to not only have a good defensive series but perhaps the best one they've had all year.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.