Winners and Losers of the Blockbuster Christian McCaffrey Trade to 49ers

While much of the NFL world was focused on Thursday night's Arizona Cardinals win over the New Orleans Saints, another NFC West team stole the spotlight with the first true blockbuster in-season trade before the November 1 deadline.

The San Francisco 49ers acquired star running back Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers.

Per NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Carolina will get second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2023 out of the deal, along with a 2024 fifth-rounder.

McCaffrey has long been the biggest name potentially on the trade block, and this trade is huge news for the NFL But who are the real winners and losers of the trade? Only time will tell, of course, but here are our early impressions.

Because of McCaffrey's contract, there's at least a chance that he isn't more than a short-term rental for San Francisco—though the trade value certainly doesn't suggest the 49ers view this as a short-term play.

McCaffrey is playing on a four-year, $64.1 million contract that runs through 2025, but he only has a 2022 base salary of $1 million. He's also due only $1 million in injury guarantees if released before next season, so the 49ers don't have to keep him long-term if they don't want to.

McCaffrey is under contract for $12 million in each of the next three seasons.

It's too early to say that San Francisco is a big winner here because a lot will hinge on how deep it can go in the postseason with McCaffrey on the roster. The 49ers didn't surrender a first-round pick, but they didn't give up proverbial peanuts.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan, though, is going to love having McCaffrey on the roster. Shanahan has long utilized multiple running backs—along with receiver/runner Deebo Samuel—to spark the ground game.

Players like Samuel, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Elijah Mitchell—currently sidelined with a sprained MCL—have been good enough, but McCaffrey is a back who can do it all by himself.

While McCaffrey might not be as explosive as he was before injury-plagued seasons in 2020 and 2021, he's been a reliable dual-threat averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per reception this year.

Shanahan should have a lot more creative freedom with McCaffrey in the backfield, and San Francisco's 12th-ranked rushing attack should see a boost.

What the 49ers are getting in McCaffrey, the Los Angeles Rams are not. L.A. was reportedly one of several teams interested in the former Panthers standout.

"The Broncos, 49ers, Rams and Bills are among the teams that have shown varying degrees of interest in McCaffrey," CBS Sports' Jonathan Jones wrote on Saturday.

Rapoport reported Thursday that the Rams were one of the two teams "in it at the end."

The Rams' interest in McCaffrey made sense. Los Angeles has struggled to move the ball on the ground—it has averaged just 3.4 yards per carry—and it appears to be on the verge of parting with former starter Cam Akers.

"Sources say Akers, who is out today due to what was described as personal reasons, has philosophical and football-related differences with head coach Sean McVay," Rapoport wrote Sunday. "The coach has left Akers' future open, and sources say the third-year pro could be on the way out."

McVay and the Rams have also struggled to find a second reliable receiving option opposite Cooper Kupp this season. McCaffrey could have been a big help to both the rushing and the passing games, but he'll be playing for the rival 49ers instead.

The Rams are off to a sluggish start at 3-3 and won't have their Super Bowl hangover cured by the addition of McCaffrey.

The other big winner in San Francisco is quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers turned to the 30-year-old and 2021 starter only after Trey Lance suffered a season-ending ankle fracture in Week 2.

Garoppolo's play since then hasn't been awful, but it hasn't been great either. Jimmy G has completed 63.5 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns, three interceptions and a 94.8 passer rating.

In losses to the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons, though, Garoppolo committed two turnovers in each game.

While Garoppolo can provide efficient football and make the occasional big play, he's at his best when serving as a high-end game manager. With McCaffrey on the roster, he should be asked to do exactly that more frequently.

With a more consistent ground game and a premier outlet receiver in the backfield, San Francisco's quarterback should come out a winner.

On the other hand, Carolina's quarterback—whoever it is from week to week—is going to suffer from McCaffrey's departure.

The job belonged to offseason acquisition Baker Mayfield before he suffered an ankle injury in Week 5. His performance left plenty to be desired. Mayfield has completed just 54.9 percent of his passes with four touchdowns, four interceptions and a 71.9 rating.

In Week 6, the Panthers turned to P.J. Walker. He threw for 60 yards in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams, while Jacob Eason has attempted five passes this season.

Carolina also has 2021 addition Sam Darnold on the roster, though he's been out with an ankle injury, and he returned to practice for the first time in nearly eight weeks on Wednesday. Based on the performances we've seen at quarterback thus far, Darnold may get another crack at the starting job when he's healthy.

Whoever is under center for the Panthers, though, is going to miss a running back who has racked up 393 rushing yards, 277 receiving yards and three touchdowns for the league's 32nd-ranked offense.

The quarterback job in Carolina was already an unenviable one. It's even less desirable in the wake of Thursday's trade.

Barring an unforeseen reversal of fortune at the quarterback position, the Panthers will be in the quarterback market during the 2023 draft. Next year's quarterback class—headlined by C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young—is expected to be a good one.

If franchise owner David Tepper is hoping to land one of those top signal-callers, then the McCaffrey trade is a huge win.

While tanking isn't an open practice in the NFL, it happens. The one-win Panthers are going to have a difficult time stringing together wins without McCaffrey, and that should put them in prime position to walk away with a top pick.

And if Carolina somehow botches its organizational tank job, it now has extra second-, third- and fourth-round picks in the 2023 draft it can use to move up.

Oh, and the Panthers will get some valuable future cap savings out of the deal too.

According to Spotrac, Carolina faces dead-cap charges of $8.2 million for this season and $18.3 million in 2023. However, the Panthers will have no cap charge for McCaffrey in 2024 and 2025, and had they kept him the cap hits would've been $19.6 million (2024) and $15.5 million (2025).

The tearing down of this franchise—Carolina had already fired head coach Matt Rhule and traded wideout Robbie Anderson—has commenced. Carolina will have quite a few more dollars to throw at the rebuild in the coming years.

What might be good for the long-term outlook of the Panthers isn't necessarily good for interim coach Steve Wilks. In fact, it's very bad—at least, if Wilks had hoped to keep his job beyond the 2022 season.

Tepper had stated that Wilks could earn the head coaching job on a permanent basis, with a caveat.

"He's in a position to be in consideration for that position," Tepper said, per ProFootballTalk's Michael David Smith. "I had a talk with Steve, no promises were made, but if he does an incredible job, he has to be in consideration."

Wilks has inherited a one-win team with the league's 32nd-ranked offense, 21st-ranked defense and a complete mess at quarterback. He's now lost his biggest offensive playmaker on top of that.

If Wilks can somehow pull an "incredible" season out of this situation, he'll deserve head coaching looks from just about every team with a vacancy. It's virtually impossible to see that happening, though, and the reality is that the McCaffrey trade is a clear signal that his latest head coaching job will be short-lived.

While Wilks will probably be out at the end of the season, McCaffrey is out of Carolina now. For a 26-year-old running back who has one playoff appearance on his resume—coming back in his rookie season of 2017, no less—that's a massive win.

Of course, there's no guarantee that the 3-3 49ers make the playoffs this season. However, they did reach the NFC title game last year and they're in a far better position to do it than the Panthers.

McCaffrey will also benefit from having a stable quarterback situation, a proven head coach and enough offensive talent around him that he won't be the sole focus of opposing defenses.

This trade will give McCaffrey the best shot that's he had in his pro career at chasing a title. And if things don't work out this season, he can still look forward to a sizeable payday.

Either the 49ers keep McCaffrey in 2023, or he goes back to the open market. While he might not get another four-year, $64.1 million deal, he should still command a fair salary while also picking his next employer.

It's essentially a can't-lose situation for a star player who was previously stuck on a bad team and going nowhere fast.