UFC 280 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks

UFC 280, one of the UFC's best pay-per-views of the year so far, goes down this Saturday. It will be the promotion's first event in Abu Dhabi—the site of the famous Fight Island—since this time last year, and the line-up is suitably stacked for the occasion.

Headlining honours will go to a lightweight title fight between Brazil's Charles Oliveira and Russia's Islam Makhachev. Oliveira was the champion until May, when he missed weight for a fight with Justin Gaethje and was stripped of the title as a consequence. He won that fight by second-round submission, positioning himself to fight for the belt he never actually lost. Makhachev, the star protégé of lightweight great Khabib Nurmagomedov, earned his opportunity to fight for the vacant throne with 10-straight wins in the Octagon, including recent beatdowns of Bobby Green and Dan Hooker.

The co-main event spot will also go to a title fight, as bantamweight champ Aljamain Sterling defends his belt against TJ Dillashaw, who was himself the champion until he was ousted for failing a drug test.

The middle fight of the main card will also occur at bantamweight, where rising star Sean O'Malley will take a massive step up in competition against former champion Petr Yan. All signs point to the winner getting the next shot at the belt—whomever holds it after the co-main event.

Before the bantamweights get to work, No. 6 lightweight contender Beneil Dariush will risk his spot against former KSW champ Mateusz Gamrot, the division's No. 9-ranked contender. This fight looked like a title eliminator until news surfaced that featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski will probably get the next crack at the lightweight belt.

A flyweight fight between No. 1-ranked contender Katlyn Chookagian—the last stop before a fight with champ Valentina Shevchenko—and sixth-ranked Manon Fiorot will kick off the main card. Fiorot has long looked like a future title challenger and this fight will tell us if she's ready.

It's a card full of excellent match-ups with major implications, and all of them look like they could go either way. Keep scrolling to see who the B/R combat sports squad is picking to leave Abu Dhabi victorious.

Scott Harris: I keep picking against Oliveira, and I keep getting burned for it. So go ahead and sound the upset alarms. Sound them across the burning sands of Abu Dhabi. The new Mister Smesh is a -190 favorite here per DraftKings, but while Makhachev is undoubtedly good (11-1 so far in the UFC, with stoppages in his last four) he's not quite the force of nature we saw in his mentor and lightweight GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov. This will be a big step up in competition for the Dagestani, whose last four opponents were Bobby Green, Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises and Drew Dober. Now compare that to Oliveira's last four: Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. It's Makhachev's first time on the biggest stage, under the bright lights, and I think it's going to show. Oliveira won't be a sitting duck to Makhachev's dominant ground game. He'll keep it at distance, he'll scramble and win the key exchanges.

Oliveira by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Not sure what it's going to take for Oliveira to actually be a favorite in a fight. Perhaps taking down a guy who's won 10 straight will do it. As Scott alluded, I'm no doubter of Makhachev's abilities. They're many and they're obvious. But Oliveira, to me, is more versatile and he'll be able to get to the challenger's (because, yes, he's still the legit champ) neck to get things finished around the midway point.

Oliveira by submission, Rd. 3

Tom Taylor:

I, like my esteemed colleagues, can acknowledge Islam Makhachev's immense skill. He's very good. But Charles Oliveira is great. The Brazilian has a ridiculous array of weapons of his disposal and all of them have stopping power. His boxing, his Muay Thai, his submissions—it's all dangerous. Makhachev may start strong, but sooner or later he'll fall into one of former champ's traps, and it'll be over. I'm with Lyle.

Oliveira by submission, Rd. 3

Scott Harris: As decorated as Dillashaw is, it's hard for me to pick him here given that this is only his fifth fight in the past five years and first since July 2021. If he hasn't lost a step, he'll be able to neutralize Sterling's wrestling and use his brilliant striking, punctuated by his use of angles and movement, to cruise to a victory. But the injuries, steroid suspensions, and the time away must have taken a toll. Sterling is motivated to clear his name as champion after two semi-controversial wins over Petr Yan, and he should use his wrestling and athleticism to tie Dillashaw in knots.

Sterling by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Another fight where I simply think one guy is more dynamic and more versatile than the other, though not by so much that a championship transition would shock me. Nevertheless, I think Sterling eventually gets things to the ground and gets to Dillashaw's back and then assumes his "human backpack" persona until it's done.

Sterling by submission, Rd. 2

Tom Taylor: Scott's right: We haven't seen much of Dillashaw for the last few years. But his inactivity has given him a chance to rest, to heal up from any nagging injuries that have been slowing him down, and most importantly, to train. His last fight, a 2021 decision win over Cory Sandhagen, was a bit controversial, but he still looked great against one of the division's best fighters. I see no reason to assume he's lost a step, and if he's anywhere near top form, I think he can stop Sterling's takedown and light him up on the feet over five rounds—maybe even knock him out.

Dillashaw by decision

Scott Harris: Sorry, Suga Sean devotees. The hype stops here, at least for now. O'Malley's an electric striker and obviously a charismatic character, but Yan is That Dude, and he's eager to get back in the win column after those two losses to Sterling. Yan will have O'Malley's number everywhere, and an entertaining scrap will end with Yan re-ensconced at the top of the bantamweight division.

Yan by TKO, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: It's a new era in the UFC. Yan is undeniably a beast, and if he's able to sink his teeth into "Suga Sean" it won't be pretty. But the guess here is that he won't. O'Malley is strong enough with his strikes to keep Yan honest and nimble enough on his feet to make the ex-champ's pursuit a difficult one. And over a three-round distance, that'll matter.

O'Malley by split decision

Tom Taylor: I have long counted myself among O'Malley's doubters—check my past predictions for proof—but I have a feeling about this fight. It is the toughest of his career by a massive margin, which makes me think that he and his team must have seen something in Yan's last few fights that they believe they can expose. Something that has given them immense confidence that this fight is winnable, because to the layman's eye, it definitely doesn't look that way. I know it's a bit unconventional, but I'm picking O'Malley to do exactly what he and his team have planned to do—even if I have no idea what it is.

O'Malley by KO, Rd. 2

Scott Harris: If you like grappling, this could be your Super Bowl. And if you've been sleeping on Mateusz Gamrot, he's going to wake you up this Saturday. The Polish lightweight has a world-class submission grappling base, but he also knows how to crack, with seven knockouts to his name, perhaps most notably that vicious body-shot knee he landed to end Carlos Diego Ferreira in December of last year. Dariush has his own global grappling pedigree and is similarly well-rounded, but Gamrot looks like a runaway freight train.

Gamrot by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Another spot-on analysis by our man Scott. If you like mat work, this one provides 15 minutes of unfettered thrills. If you don't, it's an excellent time to refill the snack tray or answer a few stray texts before the meat of the PPV card begins. Gamrot's roll is real and that'll be what decides things.

Gamrot by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: As Scott said, Gamrot recently picked up a second-round stoppage win over Diego Ferreira, who Dariush barely scraped by with a split decision win just 10 months earlier. I know "MMA math" doesn't work, but those Ferreira fights shed some light on where their skills-levels are relative to one another. I'm guessing they'll be fairly evenly matched, but Gamrot will be a bit slicker, a bit quicker, and a bit stronger.

Gamrot by unanimous decision

Scott Harris: Chookagian is relatively well-known in this division. The problem for her is that she's mainly known for being boring. Only three of her 18 wins ended inside the distance, and her striking accuracy is a rather dismal 35 percent, per UFC stats. (For comparison's sake, division leader Valentina Shevchenko's accuracy is more than 20 percentage points higher.) Don't get me wrong, you don't get to this level without considerable talent, but the conservative approach may not work against Fiorot, who has an impressive 4-0 mark thus far under the UFC banner. Fiorot is aggressive and precise, landing 6.6 significant strikes per minute. The Frenchwoman will get the biggest win of her career to date against the consummate veteran.

Fiorot by TKO, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Hard to comprehend that someone in the No. 1 contender's position could be a gatekeeper, but that seems to be the reality these days for Chookagian as a weight station between the rest of the division and champ Valentina Shevchenko. Fiorot is one of the few who haven't met either and it says here she'll pass to the next level with a gritty verdict.

Fiorot by split decisions

Tom Taylor: Putting a fighter like Chookagian in the opening bout of a big pay-per-view is a bold play. As my colleagues stated, she's very good, but she has a bad habit of being in very boring fights. Luckily, Fiorot is aggressive enough to pull Chookagian into a decent fight. I also think she's good enough to beat her. The new contender out-strikes the gatekeeper for three rounds. From there, it's just a question of whether she gets a title shot before or after Alexa Grasso.

Fiorot by unanimous decision