The B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football in Week 7
While it seems like the 2022 fantasy football campaign just started, we're already almost halfway through the regular season.
For some fantasy managers, it has been a breeze. Thanks to big numbers from Saquon Barkley of the Giants, Stefon Diggs of the Bills and Mark Andrews of the Ravens, their teams are rolling along at 4-2 or 5-1. Maybe they are even still undefeated.
For others, it has been a disaster. Jonathan Taylor of the Colts has been hurt. Kyle Pitts of the Falcons has been invisible. Russell Wilson of the Broncos has been bad. And their seasons are either circling the drain at 2-4 or already down it at 1-5 or 0-6.
Then there's the large group of folks who lie somewhere in between. They have had some players shine and others go splat. Six weeks into the campaign, they are right back where they started—with as many wins as losses. The only thing certain is that nothing is. Not yet.
No matter the group, all of these managers have a common goal in Week 7, whether they are looking to keep rolling or stop sliding. Get a win.
And the B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football in Week 7 is here to help them do just that.
Week 7 Smash Starts
There were plenty of smash starts that helped guide fantasy managers to victory in Week 6, whether it was the 300-yard, three-score effort posted by Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, the 91 total yards and two touchdowns posted by New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson or the eight catches reeled in by San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk for 83 yards and two touchdowns.
In Week 7, these players are good bets to join them in putting smiles on the faces of managers who start them.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. ATL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,900)
Thanks to last week's big outing against the New Orleans Saints, Burrow has climbed to fifth among quarterbacks for the season in fantasy points. Top-five numbers are a real possibility in Week 7 against an Atlanta defense that sits dead last in the NFC against the pass.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (vs. PIT) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900)
It has been somewhat forgotten, but Tagovailoa was a top-five fantasy option over the first two weeks of the season. Now Tagovailoa is healthy again and draws a Steelers team this week that has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2022.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. DET) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,000)
Elliott finally showed up for fantasy managers last week against the Eagles, posting his best stat line of the season. It gives him a nice head of steam heading into a matchup with a Lions defense that is bad in just about every way a defense can be.
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks (at LAC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,800)
Walker has been excellent the past two weeks, picking up 185 rushing yards and scoring both weeks. There's a good chance he'll make it three in a row Sunday—the Bolts are 23rd in the league against the run and fourth in PPR points per game allowed to running backs.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at CAR) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,300)
The Carolina Panthers are arguably the worst team in the NFL, and they have surrendered the ninth-most PPR points to wide receivers. The Buccaneers will be looking to make a statement here after getting upset in Pittsburgh last week.
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers (at WAS) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100)
The Packers are reeling, but Lazard has been solid statistically of late—eight catches for 111 yards and two scores over the last two games. Three games in a row with a score is coming—the Washington secondary has allowed 12 touchdowns through the air this season, most in the NFC.
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. SEA) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,000]
After six weeks this season, Everett ranks ninth in PPR points among tight ends. This has the makings of one of his better weeks of the season to date—no team in the league has allowed more PPR points per game to tight ends than the Seahawks.
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (vs. DET) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,600]
This recommendation carries one sizable caveat—Schultz's injured knee. But Schultz practiced in full to end last week before being scratched Sunday night, and if he is back, the 26-year-old should benefit greatly from the return of Dak Prescott in a favorable fantasy matchup for his position.
Week 7 Must-Fades
Few things in fantasy football are more frustrating than watching a starter come up short—checking the live scoring only to see that your quarterback has thrown three interceptions or your running back is averaging less than two yards a carry.
Sometimes, there's nothing that can be done. For lack of a better of description, it's just a matter of rotten luck. But sometimes, you can see a bad game coming. The warning signs are there. The red flags are waving.
That's the case with these players, and fantasy managers should think long and hard about giving them Week 7 off.
Quarterback
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (at DAL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,800)
After a hot start to the season, Goff laid an egg his last time out against the New England Patriots. Look for the clucking to continue Sunday in Dallas. The Cowboys defense is no joke, and Dallas just held Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' potent offense mostly in check in Week 6.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (vs. NYJ) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200)
Given Wilson's history of playing through injuries, he'll probably suit up Sunday despite a balky hamstring. The Jets also aren't a terrible matchup for quarterbacks. But Wilson has been borderline awful this season with two good legs—he needs to be benched until we see signs of a turnaround.
Running Back
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (at NE) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,300)
The Patriots just held Nick Chubb to far and away his lowest rushing total of the season, and given the Bears passing-game woes, there is approximately a 147 percent chance that Montgomery sees eight-man fronts all game long. It also doesn't help that head coach Matt Eberflus said that he would give touches to the running back with the "hot hand," which favors teammate Khalil Herbert (6.4 YPC) more than it does Montgomery (4.0).
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (at DAL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,800)
The good news is that after missing two games with a sprained shoulder, Swift is expected to be back on the field for the Lions in Week 7. The bad news is that his first game back comes against a Cowboys team allowing the sixth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs in 2022.
Wide Receiver
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. NYG) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900)
Over the first three weeks of the season, Kirk was sixth among wide receivers in PPR points. In the three weeks since, Kirk is 61st. Given that the Giants have allowed the fewest points per game to wide receivers this season, this isn't the week that Kirk breaks out of the slump.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (vs. GB) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900)
The entire 2022 season has essentially been one long letdown for McLaurin's fantasy managers, as he's just 32nd in fantasy points among wideouts after six weeks. Even if you view Taylor (shudder) Heinicke as an upgrade over Carson Wentz at quarterback, McLaurin has to contend with Jaire Alexander and a Packers defense allowing the seventh-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (vs. CHI) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,500)
Henry had by far his best game of the season in Week 6 against the Browns, reeling in four passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. However, don't get caught chasing last week's numbers—the Bears have given up the sixth-fewest points per game to tight ends.
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (at WAS) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,100)
Thanks to 10 catches for 90 yards against the Jets, Tonyan was quietly fourth among all tight ends in PPR points in Week 6. But last week marked just the second time this season that Tonyan has been targeted more than five times, and the Commanders are 29th this season in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends.
Week 7 Mastering the Matchups
Right now, fantasy football is like an 'N Sync song—because we're in the bye-bye-bye bye-byes.
Oh, stop groaning. That was clever.
This week's bye is especially brutal. The Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles are all off. That means no Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson or A.J. Brown in Week 7—and that's just at wide receiver.
Oof.
If you're caught in that bye-week crunch (or if you're just looking for an under-the-radar play), here are some matchup plays with the potential for a Week 7 breakout.
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers (vs. KC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,500)
As Garoppolo showed last week against the Falcons, he's capable of QB1 production when the matchup is right. This is just such a week. The Chiefs are third in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, and the Niners will likely have to throw more than usual to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense.
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts (at TEN) {DraftKings DFS Value: $5,400)
Ryan threw for 389 yards and three scores last week against the Jaguars—easily his best game as a member of the Colts. He has a good chance of backing those numbers up Sunday in Nashville. The Titans have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
Running Back
Kenyan Drake, Baltimore Ravens (vs. CLE) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,100)
Drake is coming off a big game last week against the Giants—119 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 10 carries. Now the seventh-year veteran faces a Cleveland defense that has been gashed for over 200 yards on the ground in two of the last three weeks.
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. NYG) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,400)
The deeper we move into the season, the more the backfield pendulum has swung toward Etienne in Jacksonville. He almost doubled up James Robinson with his 108 total yards last week against the Colts and is averaging a robust 8.9 yards per touch over the past two games. The youngster's ascension should continue against the Giants, who have fielded a middle-of-the-pack run defense in 2022.
Wide Receiver
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (at MIA) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,700)
After a five-week stay at the Milk Carton Motor Lodge, Claypool finally had a good game last week, hauling in all seven targets for 96 yards and a score. He'll get a chance to build on that success this week in a plus matchup with the Dolphins.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers (at WAS) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000)
Doubs has been quiet of late—he hasn't had more than four catches or 30 receiving yards since Week 5. But Doubs has been targeted at least eight times in three of the past four weeks, and this week he faces a Commanders team that has been susceptible to being beaten over the top.
Tight End
Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts (at TEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,000)
To call Alie-Cox a feast-or-famine fantasy option is a sizable understatement. But the last time that the 29-year-old faced the rival Titans back in Week 4, Alie-Cox blew up to the tune of six catches for 85 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints (at ARI) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,700)
Johnson is admittedly a dart throw, but there are reasons for optimism. The first is the four catches for 41 yards on six targets that Johnson logged last week against Cincinnati. The second is a matchup with a Cardinals team allowing the second-most PPR points per game to tight ends.
Week 7 Fantasy Stock Market
Injuries. Bye weeks. Underperforming players. All are obstacles that fantasy managers must overcome during the course of a season. Problems that can leave holes on rosters that need to be plugged before they sink the season.
The waiver wire is one way to solve those issues, but the reality is the later we get into the season, the slimmer the pickings tend to get there. That leaves swinging a trade as potentially the best way to improve a team.
Of course, knowing what you need is only half the equation. You need to know who to target—players whose value is at its nadir but could be primed to rebound. You also need to know who to deal—players whose value is at its zenith but could be set for a slide.
I knew that Word of the Day toilet paper would come in handy.
Buy Low
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
As was already mentioned, Tagovailoa got off to a great start before getting hurt against Buffalo and Cincinnati, but his durability concerns likely have some managers feeling antsy. However, we've seen what a healthy Tagovailoa can do in this offense, and if you can get him for a Tom Brady or Geno Smith, it's a deal worth making.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
This might appear an odd call, given how horrendous the Green Bay offense has looked of late. But as Scott Youngson pointed out at Fantasy Pros, Jones is averaging 15 touches per game and has run well. He is breaking tackles at an elite rate and is averaging 3.8 yards after contact. Jones has also earned 11 percent of his team's targets in the passing game. The Packers offense will improve, and when it does, so will Jones' touchdown totals.
DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
Yes, it's hard to stomach the notion of trading for any Panthers player not named Christian McCaffrey, but Moore is averaging almost nine targets a game over the past three weeks. That target share should only increase after Robbie Anderson was traded. Moore is still the player who posted three straight seasons with over 1,100 receiving yards despite lousy quarterback play in Carolina. And right now, he could probably be had for a bag of Funyuns and a two-liter of root beer.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
After last week's eight catches for 83 yards, trading for Kittle likely became more expensive, but it's still worth exploring. Kittle is 24th in PPR points among tight ends, but missed time played a part. In terms of points per game, he's 14th, and in terms of points per game over the last two weeks, he's 11th. Kittle's average depth of target is way off last year's total, but his catches per game and yards per target aren't that far off from 2021. Kittle is too good not to rebound. Try to get in on the ground floor of that bounce-back.
SELL HIGH
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Not that long ago, I thought Brady was a viable "buy low" candidate. But that viewpoint has changed, and if he plays well against the Panthers, smart managers will look to unload him. We're reaching the point in the season where waiting for Tampa's offense to get untracked is becoming dangerous because we have seen very little to indicate it's going to happen. Age. Personal issues. A shaky offensive line. Whatever the reason, Brady is nowhere near last year's passing pace, and it's not getting better.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
Robinson is a hard-charging runner and a great story after recovering from gunshot wounds sustained in an attempted carjacking just before the season began. But fantasy managers would be wise to look at dealing Robinson after he posted a dozen fantasy points last week against the Bears. Robinson barely cracked 3.5 yards per carry against Chicago and is not a factor in the passing game. Plus, it's not like the Commanders will be playing from ahead much as the season progresses.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Smith-Schuster is coming off his best game as a member of the Chiefs after hauling in five passes for 113 yards and a score last week against the Bills. But that outburst was more likely to have been his high-water mark than a sign of things to come. Smith-Schuster has as many games with under 40 yards as those with over 80. Almost half of last week's receiving total came on a long catch-and-run after a missed tackle, and it took six games for Smith-Schuster to find the end zone.
Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Six weeks into the 2022 season, there are two tight ends with double-digit fantasy points in all six games. One is Travis Kelce. The other is Ertz. However, that party could be coming to an end. Per Chris Towers of CBS Sports, Ertz is tied with Mark Andrews for fifth amongst all players in the league with 11 red zone targets. But with DeAndre Hopkins returning, his share of those targets is all but certainly about to decline. Ertz is as valuable now as he's going to get, and that's what selling high is all about.
Week 7 Reading the Defense
In the eyes of fantasy managers, team defenses are an afterthought. They draft one late. Grab replacements off the waiver wire. Just start whoever. It matters not to them.
It should.
We're getting to a point in the season where every single fantasy point matters, especially for teams that have struggled to date. If you're 2-4 or 1-5, the next loss could be the one that all but seals the deal. The defeat that relegates a team to playing out the string. The final nail in the proverbial coffin.
Those teams need every point they can get—points that could mean the difference between victory and defeat.
With that in mind, here are some defenses set to exceed expectations in Week 7 and some others headed for Downtown Dudville.
Strong D/ST Plays
New England Patriots (vs. CHI) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,800)
After six weeks, the Patriots are quietly third among all defenses in fantasy points. By the time the dust settles on Week 7, they may be No. 1. The Bears are 28th in total offense, last in the NFC in scoring offense, tied for first in the league with 23 sacks allowed and seventh in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses.
Green Bay Packers (at WAS) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,400)
The Packers are reeling, but it's not the defense's fault. The team ranks fifth in the league in yards allowed and leads the NFL in pass defense. Speaking of reeling, the Commanders are doing an excellent job of it themselves. Washington has given up the fifth-most points per game to defenses and will start Taylor Heinicke at quarterback Sunday.
Tennessee Titans (vs. IND) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,000)
We actually saw this movie back in Week 4 when the Titans defeated the Colts 24-17. Tennessee sacked Matt Ryan three times, picked him off once and recovered a pair of fumbles, giving the unit the fifth-most fantasy points amongst defenses that week.
Weak D/ST Plays
Baltimore Ravens (vs. CLE) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,500)
The Ravens aren't a bad fantasy defense. After six games, the team ranks ninth in fantasy points. But that low-end weekly starter status is probably a best-case scenario on Sunday against the rival Browns. There are plenty of things the Browns haven't done this season, but they also haven't allowed many fantasy points per game to defenses—Cleveland is 27th in the NFL in that regard.
New York Giants (at JAX) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,900)
The Giants may be the most surprising team in the entire league, in part because the New York defense has outperformed expectations in a big way. But New York barely ranks inside the top-15 fantasy defenses for the season, and a bottom-10 fantasy matchup on the road this week against the Jaguars isn't likely to change that.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. KC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,700)
The 49ers have been great defensively most of this season, with its units ranking first in the league in total defense and leading the NFC in fantasy points. But last week against the Falcons, the injuries that have hit the 49ers defense started to show, and now that short-handed defense has to try to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Week 7 Fantasy Mailbag
Every week during the 2022 season, I'll be pulling a handful of fantasy football questions from the Bleacher Report app and answering them here. Hopefully, those answers will aid not only the managers making the query but others as well.
Have a question you want to have answered? Head on over to the fantasy football section of the app and make with the asking.
Who do I flex this week? Mick Chubb or DeAndre Hopkins? I worry about Chubb against Baltimore. -- @jmatthews4
Yes, Chubb is coming off his worst fantasy outing of the season last week against the Patriots. And the Cardinals will no doubt be glad to have Hopkins back in the lineup. But Chubb is the NFL's leading rusher and fantasy's No. 3 running back, and the Ravens actually rank in the top half of the league in PPR points per game allowed to running backs. Don't overthink this. Chubb.
I've got Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce and Rhamondre Stevenson and I'm not sure who to put at RB2 and flex. Austin Ekeler is my RB1. -- @nicksiena
This question feels like showing off. You could probably pull a name out of a hat here and be fine. However, with Damien Harris potentially returning to action in Week 7, the backfield for the Patriots becomes just muddied enough for Stevenson to be the odd man out. Relish the rookie runner revolution and roll out Hall and Pierce alongside Ekeler.
Need two of these four wide receivers—Brandin Cooks, Christian Kirk, Drake London and Allen Lazard. -- @Fantasy_King11
We already mentioned Kirk's rough fantasy matchup with the Giants, so he's out here. Conversely, Lazard gets a porous Washington defense giving up the sixth-most PPR points per game to wideouts this year, so he gets a spot. London will probably draw one of the league's more underrated corners (Chidobe Awuzie) in a bottom-10 fantasy matchup. So the second spot here goes to Cooks, who is bound to rebound post-bye, given the beefy target share he continues to receive.
Hayden Hurst or Kyle Pitts at tight end? -- @DurtyBurd
This is where we're at with Pitts in 2022. The thing is, this isn't an especially close call—Hurst has quietly posted top-12 numbers among tight ends, while Pitts sits outside the top 20. Add in that Hurst plays a Falcons team giving up the fourth-most PPR points per game to tight ends this season, and it's Hurst by a fair margin.
Need a bye-week fill-in for Josh Allen. Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Kansas City or Marcus Mariota vs. Cincinnati? -- @Redrum944
Actually, both of these options are at least serviceable, as Garoppolo and Mariota were top-10 quarterbacks facing one another last week. Mariota's rushing upside helps to compensate for his usually modest passing totals, but Garoppolo is the play here. The Niners will have to throw the ball to keep pace with the Chiefs, and Kansas City is a top-three fantasy matchup for quarterbacks.
THE Fantasy Boom of Week 7
No one player can make or break an entire season. Even cataclysmic injuries to top-five picks can sometimes be overcome with some waiver wire magic and/or a trade or two.
Cue the hopeful glances from every fantasy manager who drafted a quarterback over the age of 32 in 2022.
However, one player can make or break a week. Get a huge game from the right guy, and a team can cruise. Have a starter lay an egg, though, and it can be game over.
With that in mind, we're going to conclude each edition of the B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football with one player who will define the week to come, for better or worse. The Boom (or Bust) of the Week.
After a dry spell (that we won't talk about anymore—it never happened), we got back on track in this space. Now it's time to keep that momentum going…
With a second straight "Boom."
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,400]
The Indianapolis Colts might not be short on talent at wide receiver, but they are short on experience. However, as Andrew Walker wrote for the team's website, quarterback Matt Ryan has been impressed with the leadership that third-year pro Michael Pittman Jr. has shown in taking ownership of the wide receiver room.
"I think Pitt has done a great job as a leader kind of setting the tone for what those guys are expected to do," Ryan said.
Pittman came up huge in last week's win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, catching 13 passes for 134 yards and nearly hauling in a two-point conversion on the way to top-five fantasy numbers. With a matchup on tap against a Tennessee Titans team allowing the second-most PPR points per game to wide receivers this year, Pittman's hot streak should roll over into Week 7.
Looking for fantasy rankings? Check out Gary's Week 7 Big Board!
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Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.