Why Is Vegas so Low on These 5 Star NBA MVP Candidates?

Forecasting the latest NBA MVP race before the season starts is among basketball's greatest pastimes. Probably. Definitely for true NBA sickos, at least.

Living in and analyzing the moment is imperative, but there's something indescribably entrancing about projecting. And the regular-season MVP award is the most distinguished individual NBA honor in existence. It doesn't hinge upon a specific skill or role. It encapsulates everything across an entire 82-game schedule, rather than a single playoff series. And its interpretation is so subjective the debates shape-shift almost annually.

Does the Maurice Podoloff Trophy simply go to the best player on the best team? Or the player who did the most, while overcoming the most, with a supporting cast that did the least? How many games can you miss and still qualify for top-tier consideration? Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

Oh, yeah, and then there's the gambling element. Futures betting can be so much more thrilling than single-game lines. The wager itself unfolds gradually, over time. And the winnings potential is typically more absurd.

No one laying MVP odds ahead of this season, for instance, pays out less than 5-to-1 at FanDuel. And because the league is so rich with superstar power, you can journey down that list and find potential steals—actual might-be MVP candidates laying odds akin to a dark horse or total afterthought.

Why are these heavy hitters so far down Vegas' MVP pecking order? After identifying five players who could enter the discussion but are worse than 25-to-1 to win the honor, I've got answers.

The primary reason: There is an unofficial scoring-average minimum for MVP candidacy.

This logic is not meant as an insult to Bam Adebayo. It's just a trend.

Stephen Curry (2014-15) is the only MVP to average under 25 points per game since 2007. Steve Nash (2004-05, 2005-06) and Bill Walton (1977-78) are the lone MVPs to tally under 20 points per game since the 1960s.

Adebayo will need to ratchet up his scoring to clear even the latter threshold. His 19.1 points per game last year was a career high. On the bright side, his scoring isn't an issue of efficiency. He is the king of 7-of-13 or 9-of-14. It's more about the volume. He took more than 15 shots just 16 times last season—another career high in itself.

Juicing up his field-goal attempts is probably outside Adebayo's element. And the Miami Heat do have a handful of on-ball options in Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and even Victor Oladipo. But Adebayo is central enough to the offense to bump up his numbers.

Only Butler averaged more frontcourt touches per game last season. Adebayo just needs to be more aggressive putting the ball on the floor in the half court or just generally looking for his shot. Whatever you think about his role, he shouldn't be so low on the points-per-touch pyramid.

Granted, winning MVP isn't solely about scoring. In this case, though, it might be. Adebayo checks every other box. His passing is atypical for a big man, and he's a staple in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion.

The primary reason: People think he's somewhere between "less than megastar elite" and "absolutely cooked."

James Harden's biggest knock should be that he plays with Joel Embiid. Members of superstar formations run the risk of cannibalizing consideration from each other.

That factor will be at play. But it's not the force driving Harden to 80-1 odds. It's his place in the league's larger superstar pecking order. Maybe he's a fringe All-NBA candidate, and perhaps Houston Rockets Harden is gone forever. But does he even have the ability to be something like the eighth-best player in a given season?

We needn't conduct an official poll to know the answer is a resounding "no."

Harden's heyday is considered behind him for reasons galore. He's 33. He's dealt with hamstring issues in each of the past two seasons. He has looked passive and slow in the half court on more than a few occasions—and not just when he was trying to extricate himself from Houston and then Brooklyn.

Last year's playoff performance didn't aid his case. There were flickers of burst and brilliance but longer stretches of deference and borderline dissociation. His quip about the ball not getting back to him didn't help matters. And then, after all that, there's the whole "He's not supposed to be the best player on his team anymore" thing.

Still, this all feels like a rush to declare downfall. Harden looks leaner and sprier entering this season, and he can resume scoring in bunches even if he's a few steps slower by leaning on his floater and mid-range game.

Given the sheer volume at which he'll be handling the ball and orchestrating the Philadelphia 76ers offense, he should not be entirely written out of the MVP discourse.

The primary reason: Father Time looms, potentially, maybe, though perhaps not at all, but who cares because have you seen the Los Angeles Lakers roster?

Has LeBron James been 32-to-1 or worse to win MVP since his rookie season? Heck, was he even that low on the list entering his first year? Asking for a friend. Seriously. I couldn't find the answer.

Regardless, LeBron's fading MVP stock is no mystery. Only one player has ever won MVP after his age-34 season: Age-35 Karl Malone (1998-99). LeBron is 37, going on 38 in December. He would be, by far, the oldest MVP ever.

Is that really so inconceivable? He's LeBron freaking James! He has countermanded his decline in athleticism by honing step-back and fadeaway jumpers. He finished last season averaging 30.3 points per game—second-most in the NBA—while dishing out 6.2 assists and shooting a nearly career-best clip from inside the arc (62.0 percent).

Age, in this case, shouldn't be a factor until LeBron actually incurs material regression.

Maybe Vegas and others don't think he'll play enough. That's fair. He has missed at least 25 games in three of the past four seasons. But the Lakers will need him to play every damn minute possible if they're going to be good.

That might be LeBron's real downfall. L.A. isn't a contender as constructed. And MVPs historically need to come from no worse than really good teams. So LeBron is not only tasked with holding off MVP candidates more than a decade younger, but he must also prop up the Lakers to near-miraculous heights. That's an obscenely heavy lift—and also, relative to his standards, not impossible.

The primary reason: League MVP is a regular-season award.

Kawhi Leonard's MVP candidacy should have an airtight baseline. He is the best player on what could feasibly be the title favorite.

Sure, he's coming back from a partially torn right ACL. But the most recent version of Kawhi was good for something like 25 points and five assists per game on brain-bending efficiency and more selective yet still suffocating defense. Every spring, when the games start to matter more, he seems to reenter the best-player-alive conversation. His two Finals MVPs are nothing if not proof of that concept.

Then again, the Finals are not the regular season, which Kawhi and his teams have approached with a certain cautious indifference. He hasn't appeared in 65 games (or its schedule equivalent) since 2016-17, his age-25 campaign. Kawhi is 31 with a smattering of serious injuries on his resume. And he just missed the entire 2021-22 season.

Load maintenance isn't merely the standard. For him to be at his peak when it counts most, it is essential.

Perhaps he stumbles into, somewhat shockingly, 65 appearances anyway. That sample size may not even be enough. Allen Iverson was the last player to win MVP while missing more than 10 games, in 2000-01. The last and only MVP to miss 15 or more games was Bill Walton in 1977-78. Leonard will need to post availability he hasn't sniffed in more than a half-decade to top this race—or be head-shoulders-knees-and-toes better than the field during his 60-something appearances.

Impossible? Not at all. Improbable? Beyond so. And it's reflected in his odds, albeit not enough to bounce him from the top 10.

The primary reason: 28 is considered old, for some reason, and he's considered to have already peaked.

“I’ve been All-NBA. I’ve been an All-Star," Pascal Siakam told reporters during the Toronto Raptors' 2022 media day. "I want to be a top-five player in the league. I want to be one of the best, and I’ll do everything I can to work towards that.”

For a sentiment so ambitious, this never truly made the rounds with the usual rate of virality. It was instead treated as an aspirational throwaway. Everyone is optimistic and driven in training camp.

It also probably says something about how Siakam is viewed. He has two All-NBA selections, including a second-team cameo (2019-20). He has a Most Improved Player award. He has a championship. He is a star, yes. But can he reach the level of megastardom required to win MVP?

Most will lean no. He is 28, after all, which is apparently ancient. Never mind that he didn't start playing organized basketball until age 17. He can't improve enough to top out as the eighth- to 10th-best player, at least, in any given season.

And yeah, betting against his reaching those heights is the statistically safe play. But it's hardly egregious to think someone who has twice bagged one of 15 All-NBA slots will have one of the league's best campaigns.

Siakam's game fits the mold too. He is the offensive engine for the Toronto Raptors—both a primary scorer and playmaker. He is a defensive keystone for the most aggressive scheme out there. And Toronto is good enough to rack up the number of wins necessary to garner attention.

If Siakam adds another layer to his game, like he has almost every season, perhaps this time in the form of a more efficient and higher-volume pull-up three, then party-crashing the MVP convo is absolutely his ceiling.

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.