2023 NFL Draft: Stock Up, Stock Down On Hottest Prospects

Volatility plays a large role in the NFL draft evaluation process. Assessment is a continual process based on a prospect’s performance during the season and through the offseason draft cycle.

Some experience far more movement in their overall valuation than others. None remain totally static, not even those considered elite prospects from Day 1. Scouts are always looking to see how these young men react and adjust in different scenarios.

Earlier this year, Travon Walker experienced a meteoric rise to become the No. 1 overall selection based on the physical traits showed on film and during predraft workouts. He's looked every bit the part of a top pick, yet his evaluation was difficult based on how Georgia used him during its national-championship run.

Conversely, quarterback Malik Willis had been touted as a first-round talent through a significant portion of the process only to see his stock take hit after hit based on his performances, particularly against top competition. Ultimately, the Tennessee Titans chose Willis in this year's third round.

Now six weeks into the college football season, a significant amount of movement can be seen among a handful of top prospects. We'll take stock of which ones are making positive impressions and which ones are going the other way, starting with a couple high-profile quarterbacks.

The Tennessee Volunteers are experiencing a renaissance, due in large part to the play of quarterback Hendon Hooker.

Tennessee hasn't won 10 games since the 2007 campaign. For frame of reference, Phillip Fulmer was still the program's head coach then, and the Vols are now on their fifth head coach since Fulmer retired.

The team is currently 5-0 with its highest Associated Press ranking (sixth) since 2005. Throughout this outstanding run—including back-to-back wins against ranked SEC opponents—Hooker has completed 70 percent of his passes for 1,432 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The quarterback has also added 231 rushing yards and three scores on the ground.

Impressively, Tennessee's wins over Florida and LSU didn't include star wide receiver Cedric Tillman, who's dealing with a high-ankle sprain.

Hooker's performance isn't a flash in the pan, either. Since taking over as Tennessee's official starter in Week 3 of last season, the redshirt senior has a breathtaking 39-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Going into this past weekend's action, the upperclassman held the highest overall Pro Football Focus grade and QBR among SEC quarterbacks, per NFL Rookie Watch's Bradon Deacon.

The 6'4", 218-pound quarterback can drive the ball to all three levels. He's excellent off play-action and in clean pockets. He's athletic enough to create when asked to play outside of structure or add in the designed-run game. The biggest concern about Hooker's profile is his age. The Virginia Tech transfer will turn 25 before he hears his name called during draft weekend.

Physically, Florida's Anthony Richardson is everything a team wants in a quarterback prospect.

The redshirt sophomore stands 6'4" and weighs 232 pounds. He's an exceptional athlete with the power and speed to run through or by would-be tacklers. Richardson's natural arm strength is impressive, too, as he has the power to drive the ball into any window.

As such, his projections have been all over the board, especially early in the season when he looked like Superman after he completed 70.8 percent of his passes and ran for 106 yards and three scores against the ranked Utah Utes. He hasn't been the same player since that Sept. 3 contest.

Yes, a 453-yard passing effort against the Tennessee Volunteers can be found between then and now. Yet, he has thrown seven interceptions compared to only five touchdowns over the past five weeks of play. Consistency when working from the pocket is a concern.

Some of the prettiest throws this season will come off Richardson's right hand. When he sees what's unfolding in front of him and throws with anticipation, he can be unstoppable. That's not always the case, though.

It's OK to be considered a work-in-progress. Richardson is 21 years old and an underclassman. At this point in his development, another year at Florida seems like a better option than declaring for the draft. The extra season could work wonders and push him near the top of the 2024 class.

Right now, Richardson already has first-round ability. He's just not a first-round player at all times.

Think of the impressive list running backs who made their way through the Pittsburgh Panthers program—the likes of Tony Dorsett, Craig "Ironhead" Heyward, Curtis Martin, LeSean McCoy, Dion Lewis and James Conner made their mark in the Steel City.

Yet the team's current lead back, Israel Abanikanda, now holds the record for the most rushing yards in a single game with 320. The 5'11", 215-pound junior managed 36 carries and scored six times during Saturday's 45-29 victory over the Virginia Tech Hokies.

Abanikanda left the previous weekend's game against Georgia Tech with a shoulder injury, but he turned that setback into a positive.

"I was angry after that game, and I just wanted to empty out the tank this week," Abanikanda told ESPN's Andrea Adelson. "I just wanted to show people what I'm capable of and help my team by doing what we had to do to win."

According to ESPN Stats & Info, Abanikanda became only the third running back over the past 25 years with 300 or more rushing yards and a six touchdowns in a single game. LaDainian Tomlinson and Ricky Williams are pretty good company.

A one-game explosion doesn't fully encapsulate Abanikanda as a prospect. He's a stoutly built and patient runner with excellent long speed. In fact, the running back earned a bronze medal in the 100-meter dash during the New York state track-and-field championships. Once he breaks into the second level, he's difficult to catch.

Prior to his latest outburst, Pitt's lead back posted three 100-yard games, including 154 against Tennessee.

An in-season benching deflates preseason expectations. Case in point, Miami's Tyler Van Dyke had been consistently met with first-round buzz after last year's outstanding half-year output.

At his best, Van Dyke layers throws tremendously well. He can push the ball down the field and shows excellent touch when throwing between zones. His throwing ability isn't in question. What he tends to do with his arm talent raises eyebrows.

Elite throwers tend to be overconfident. Van Dyke may not have a Josh Allen- or Patrick Mahomes-type arm, but he's very capable of completing passes with a high degree of difficulty. He has no problem trying to do so. As a result, Van Dyke's four interceptions are only two behind the six he posted in 10 contests last season.

Van Dyke's two-pick effort against the Middle Tennessee State earned him a ticket straight to the bench. Afterward, Miami head coach Mario Cristobal challenged his quarterback.

"After a rough day like that, competitors are resilient. [Van Dyke] has shown he is going to attack every opportunity that he has and that we have as a football team," Cristobal told reporters last week. "... It is just like life: Either you come together and you work at it and you improve and move forward, or you unravel and fall apart. ... Tyler has done a really good job of doing everything possible to make sure we improve, and we have done a better job of communicating and making sure we do things that fit our personnel at the current time."

For scouting purposes, the shine of a potential first-round prospect has been worn off, particularly since evaluators wanted to see if Van Dyke could string together an entire season of outstanding performances. He hasn't.

Texas running back Bijan Robinson and Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer could easily be the highest rated non-quarterback skill-position prospects in next year's draft class.

The wide receiver class is more fluid.

USC's Jordan Addison is likely the best of the bunch, though he's a 175-pound target. Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba (more on him in a bit) and LSU's Kayshon Boutte have done disappearing acts for one reason or another. A lack of top performance from this crop opened the door for TCU's Quentin Johnston to enter the discussion.

After a slow start to this season, Johnston finally emerged with a 14-catch, 206-yard performance against the ranked and previously undefeated Kansas Jayhawks. More importantly, Johnson caught the game-winning touchdown—a beautiful 24-yard, over-the-shoulder catch near the back of the end zone.

"I didn't see the numbers I wanted in the first few games, but I was being double-covered. That opened up things for everybody else, so I couldn't be too mad," Johnston told reporters. "After a certain point, everybody else was scoring (so) you have to put eyes on everybody else. That opened it back up for me, so I was pretty excited about that. I saw my opportunity, took it and ran with it.”

The performance jumpstarted Johnston's ascendancy as a top wide receiver prospect. What's not to like? He's a 6'4", 193-pound target with quick feet and toughness to work over the middle of the field. He creates after the catch when called upon during bubble screens that are a staple of the Horned Frogs offense. Plus, his size and quickness allow him to be a threat outside the numbers or down the field.

As long as the junior continues to build on his latest performance, he'll be pushing others to become the class' top wide receiver.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's role with the Ohio State Buckeyes has been inverted this season.

A year ago, Smith-Njigba benefitted from playing alongside two first-round wide receivers in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave—both of whom heard their names called among the initial 11 picks in this year's class.

While those two drew most of the attention, Smith-Njigba flourished with a team-leading 95 receptions for 1,606 yards, including a school and FBS bowl record of 347 receiving yards against the Utah Utes in the 2022 Rose Bowl.

With Wilson and Olave gone, Smith-Njigba became the focus of the passing game and opposing defenses. This inversion has created opportunities for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. The former already looks like a future WR1 and top-10 draft pick, though Harrison is not draft eligible until 2024.

To be fair, Smith-Njigba played in two games before suffering an injury that's kept him out of the lineup. During those two contests, the junior caught just four passes for 36 yards. How he's utilized and his corresponding play upon return will determine quite a bit regarding his draft standing.

But the conversation was very different entering this season. Smith-Njigba's name came up as the top target for next year's class. The discussion may have been a tad premature since he primarily played in the slot last season. His evolution, once healthy, will be a strong indicator of how he'll ultimately be viewed.

One thing will ring true, though: At no point will Smith-Njigba ever be the best wide receiver on his own team.

Talent evaluation is a traits-based business, especially with offensive line prospects.

The college game doesn't necessarily prepare and produce high-level blockers, who are ready for the professional game once they're drafted. Instead, the proliferation of spread offenses and limited contact drills and practice time have stunted the pool of quality linemen.

Prospects like Trevor Penning and Tyler Smith still landed in the first round even though they were clearly not ready from a technique standpoint. What they bring to the table, though, is that they're exceptional athletes with elite physical traits.

Penn State's Olumuyiwa Fashanu is a big ball of clay capable of being a dominant blindside protector with the right tutelage. Fashanu is a 21-year-old, third-year sophomore with the requisite size (6'6", 308 pounds) and wingspan to properly protect a quarterback's backside at the next level.

Fashanu is light on his feet with the power to sink his hips and anchor if necessary. His long levers allow him to run edge-rushers around the circle and keep them away from his quarterback. The offensive tackle can move defenders at the point of attack and envelop linebackers when he reaches the second level. He gets out on the move with the ability to adjust to assignments in space.

As a still-developing blocker, Fashanu may be a little too aggressive at times and overset or lose his balance. He tends to fall off blocks. His hand placement can also be more consistent overall. These are techniques that can be coached up through the rest of this year and, eventually, by a professional staff.

In a class where no slam-dunk offensive line prospect appears to be available, Fashanu brings as much upside, if not more, than any other option.

Some prospects are blessed with so much natural talent that evaluators get ahead of themselves before those individuals achieve anything of note.

Arik Gilbert had a promising start to his collegiate career with 35 catches for 368 yards as a true freshman with the LSU Tigers. The former 5-star recruit—and the nation's best tight end—transferred and joined the Georgia Bulldogs, though he sat out the entirety of the 2021 campaign for personal reasons.

Still, expectations exploded for the 6'5", 255 target based on his natural ability and the Bulldogs' reliance and usage of the tight end position. However, he still hasn't found his footing and has only played in two games as a reserve.

"We play the guys that can play winning football and can communicate and execute," head coach Kirby Smart told reporters when asked why Gilbert had been scratched form the lineup during the Bulldogs' Week 3 contest against the South Carolina Gamecocks. "That’s all based on how he practices and how he carries over the game plan."

Gilbert has yet to return to the lineup since that point.

"AG has been practicing with us and continues to do that," Smart said less than two weeks ago. "He'll be day-to-day each day, and hopefully he can help us this year."

Georgia doesn't have to rush the process depending on Gilbert's progress. The Bulldogs feature two of the nation's best tight ends in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington. Eventually, Gilbert may get another opportunity to show how talented he is.

A well-timed transfer to the right program in the right system can be a boon for a draft prospect. Florida State's Jared Verse is the perfect example.

Verse spent three years with the Albany Great Danes. In two seasons after redshirting, the defensive lineman registered 21.5 and 13.5 sacks in 15 games at the FCS level. He became the Colonial Athletic Association's Rookie of the Year during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

Verse followed in the footsteps of Jermaine Johnson II and became the replacement for this year's 26th overall draft pick. Johnson transferred to Florida State from Georgia and spent one year with the Seminoles, where he broke out and became the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Verse appears to be on a similar path.

"This is the best defensive lineman I've ever coached," Florida State defensive coordinator Adam Fuller said during an interview on the ACC Network (h/t Brendan Sonnone of Noles 247).

The 6'4", 248-pound redshirt sophomore is consistently disruptive. Verse has an explosive first step, with the bend to turn the corner and close on opposing quarterbacks. He works his hands to keep bigger offensive linemen off his body. As a run defender, he can slice into the backfield and make plays.

Johnson may have transferred from a far more prestigious football school, but Verse looks like the more natural pass-rusher at Florida State. When an edge-defender consistently harasses opposing quarterbacks, their draft value naturally increases.

A transfer to Alabama should have elevated cornerback Eli Ricks into elite status after an exceptional start to his career with the LSU Tigers. After all, Alabama head coach Nick Saban is arguably the very best at teaching and preparing a defensive backfield.

Things haven't exactly gone to plan. Ricks has struggled to find his place in Alabama's lineup.

"We go a lot by how players practice," Saban told reporters after Alabama's Week 2 meeting with the Texas Longhorns. "If players have a good week of practice, I think they are ready to play and do their jobs. The other players they play with also gain confidence in knowing what they are supposed to do, in terms of how focused they are in practice. We just want to continue doing a good job of working with him."

Prior to arriving at Alabama, Ricks graded as the SEC's third-best corner in single coverage and second in press coverage since the start of the 2020 campaign, according to Pro Football Focus. No returning SEC corner faced fewer targets downfield than Ricks, per CFB Film Room.

Even so, the 6'2", 190-pound junior has done next to nothing this season, recording just two total tackles.

When on the field, Ricks' man-cover ability is still present. But the transition hasn't gone smoothly overall. The talented corner must get on the field, stay there and show why many considered him a first-round talent going into this season. Otherwise, another year at Alabama or possibly a second transfer may be in order.