The B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football in Week 5
The 2022 fantasy season is a month old—a fact that means different things for different teams.
For some, it is cause for celebration. Jalen Hurts has scrambled and thrown and piled up points. Nick Chubb has rumbled his way to many yards and touchdowns. Their teams are 4-0 or 3-1, and all is right with the universe.
For others, it is cause for despair. Matthew Stafford has decided that throwing touchdown passes is uncool. Alvin Kamara has been injured part of the time and ineffective the rest. At 1-3 or 0-4, their teams aren't scoring, and their season is circling the drain.
Then there are all the folks in the middle. They have players like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who have panned out, and others like DJ Moore, who haven't. They are 2-2 and trying to build some momentum.
Those fantasy managers may have all taken a different path to Week 5, but now that they are here, the goal is the same: get a win.
The point of this column is to help you do just that. Whether it's smash starts, player fades, trade targets or info on top defensive plays, this is your one-stop ticket to victory.
Week 5 Smash Starts
After a month of fantasy action, we're starting to get a feel for which players we were right about in 2022 and which ones we, um, weren't.
Looking at you, Kyle Pitts. Well, actually, looking at Arthur Smith. Can't look at Kyle Pitts. He's invisible.
We also have a better idea of which matchups to target this season, and with that knowledge in hand, there's a good chance the following players are headed for fat stat lines in Week 5.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at BAL) [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,700]
It has been something of a bumpy ride with Burrow, who ranks eighth in fantasy points among quarterbacks four weeks into the season. But Joe Cool could easily be on the verge of his best stat line of the season given the whopping 315.3 yards per game Baltimore's league-worst pass defense has allowed this season.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (at NE) [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100]
Raise your hand if you thought Jared Goff would be a top-five fantasy option a month into the season. Now put your hand down, you dirty fibber. The Lions are a bad team (stunner), but the offense has been piling up yards and points. This week Goff faces a Patriots defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Running Back
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans (at JAX) [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200]
Pierce had his coming-out party last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, piling up 131 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries. There's no reason to think he can't build on that success this weekend against the Jaguars—Jacksonville has given up the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs in 2022.
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. HOU) [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,300]
Robinson had his first clunker of the season in Week 4, managing just 29 yards on eight carries against the Eagles. Shake off that dud because Robinson will be back in fantasy managers' good graces after bowling over a Texans defense giving up 172 rushing yards per game and the most points-per-reception points to running backs.
Wide Receiver
Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills (vs. PIT) [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,400]
The 2022 season hasn't gone like fantasy managers hoped with Davis—he had a big Week 1, hurt his ankle and has barely been heard from since. But this is the same field-stretching receiver that so many in the fantasy community tabbed as a breakout candidate in 2022, and with Isaiah McKenzie (concussion) and Jamison Crowder (broken ankle) also hurt, Davis could see a sizable bump in target share in the weeks to come.
Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders (vs. TEN) [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,800]
Samuel has been one of the surprise standouts of the first month of the 2022 season, ranking inside the top-20 fantasy receivers and emerging as Carson Wentz's go-to target. The Titans haven't been a difficult team to throw on this season—Tennessee is 28th in pass defense and fourth in fantasy points given up to receivers.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (at ARI) [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,700]
Goedert is a so-so ninth in fantasy points among tight ends, but he has at least been relatively consistent, scoring double-digit PPR points in each of his last three games. The fifth-year veteran should make it four in a row this week—the Cardinals have struggled mightily defending tight ends in recent seasons.
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (at NE) [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,900]
Hockenson shot up the tight end board like a Honolulu Blue rocket after exploding for eight catches, 179 yards and two scores last week against the Seahawks. He won't do that two weeks in a row, but a matchup with a New England Patriots team that ranks seventh in fantasy points given up to tight ends sets the stage for another strong showing.
Week 5 Must-Fades
No one wants to admit that they drafted a bust. That the player they spent a high pick turned out to be less a league-winning point machine and more the centerpiece of Thanksgiving dinner.
Gobble gobble.
But a month in, it's time to face facts. Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford may rebound somewhat, but he isn't backing up last season's numbers. Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts has about as much chance of challenging Travis Kelce to be this year's top fantasy option at the position as I do.
The following players might be mired in Downtown Dudsville for the entire year, but in Week 5, at least, slotting them in starting lineups is asking to be disappointed.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs. PHI) [DraftKings DFS Value: $7,400]
Arizona's offense has sputtered at times this season, but Murray has been relatively steady, topping 20 fantasy points three times in four games. With that said, Murray is a much risker QB1 play than normal this week—through four games this season, the Eagles have surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (vs. DAL) [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,400]
Since throwing three touchdown passes against the Atlanta Falcons back in Week 2, Stafford has now gone two straight games without one. The 34-year-old is now a dismal 28th in fantasy points at his position, and that trend isn't especially likely to reverse in a tough matchup with a stout Dallas Cowboys defense.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (at LAR) [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,800]
Elliott is one of those players we need to face the proverbial music on—he ain't backing up last year's top-10 finish. In fact, given the full-blown committee backfield he's in with Tony Pollard, top-20 numbers are a best-case scenario. On top of that, there isn't a team in the league that has allowed fewer fantasy points to running backs than the Rams.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (at BUF) [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,500]
There isn't a single factor in this game that doesn't scream "fade Harris." The Bills are arguably the best defense in the league. The Pittsburgh offensive line is terrible again. The Steelers are trotting out a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. And the game script will all but certainly be negative. Other than that, everything's fine.
Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (at BUF) [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100]
With Kenny Pickett under center in Pittsburgh last week, Johnson went from the Steelers No. 1 wide receiver to the side of a milk carton. If Pickett's affinity for George Pickens wasn't a problem enough, Johnson also faces a stout Buffalo defense Sunday. The only thing Johnson has going for him this week is garbage time potential.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (at DEN) {DraftKings DFS Value: $7,300]
Despite Matt Ryan having his best game yardage-wise as a member of the Colts in Week 4, Pittman was a non-factor—just three catches for 31 yards. Unfortunately, fantasy managers are going to have to wait for a rebound game since the Broncos have given up the fewest fantasy points in the AFC to wide receivers this year.
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers (at CLE) [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,200]
Everett has been quietly solid for fantasy managers this season, ranking sixth in fantasy points among tight ends and topping a dozen PPR points in three of four games. However, he faces an uphill battle to make it four of five this week against a Browns team giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year.
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (vs. DAL) [DraftKings DFS Value: $4,300]
Given the hot mess that is the tight end position in 2022, sitting a player who just had a 10-catch game against the 49ers is a tall ask. But Higbee's Week 5 matchup with the Cowboys isn't good—the Dallas pass defense ranks sixth in the league and has given up the eighth-fewest PPR points to tight ends.
Week 5 Mastering the Matchups
Here's the thing about fantasy football: Studs don't win championships. Value does.
Before the season, value is all about drafting players who outperform their slot. Fantasy managers with shares of Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson and Jags wideout Christian Kirk know all about that.
But in-season, value can mean under-the-radar matchup plays—guys who go from fantasy benches to big stat lines in the blink of an eye. You aren't winning a DFS tournament without at least one.
In Week 5, this group of players has the potential to be just that kind of value, which can mean the difference between a win and a loss.
Quarterback
Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders (vs. TEN) [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700]
After something of a hot start, Wentz and the Commanders offense have been ice cold the past two weeks. But the Tennessee Titans have made a habit of warming opponents up through the air this season, allowing 274 passing yards a game and giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Zach Wilson, New York Jets (vs. Miami) [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,300]
Wilson didn't exactly light the world on fire throwing the ball in his 2022 debut, passing for 252 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions. He now has his first game action of the season under his belt, and Sunday, he faces a Miami Dolphins defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Running Back
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (vs. LAC) [DraftKings DFS Value: $6,000]
After a big Week 1, Hunt's fantasy production has tailed off, although he still ranks inside RB2 territory for the season. Week 5 is a sneaky smash spot for the NFL's best No. 2 back. The Chargers have had all kinds of trouble stopping the run this season, and the Browns will likely do everything they can to keep the ball out of Justin Herbert's hands.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (vs. DET) [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,500]
Where this week's meeting with the Detroit Lions is concerned, it's start 'em if you got 'em with the running backs for the Patriots. Due largely to injuries at quarterback, the Patriots ran the ball 33 times against the Packers. You can probably expect even more carries this week against a Lions defense that has allowed over 165 yards per game on the ground.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals (at BAL) [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,200]
Outside of one long touchdown against the New York Jets in Week 3, Boyd has been quiet this season—he has just 11 catches for 146 yards outside that 56-yard reception. But if there was ever a week for Boyd to break out, it's on the road in prime time against a Ravens team that leads the league in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Corey Davis, New York Jets (vs. MIA) [DraftKings DFS Value: $5,100]
Davis found the end zone last week for the second time in three weeks and has scored over 13 PPR points three times. The sixth-year veteran is quietly on pace for the first 1,000-yard season of his professional career. Look for the good times to continue Sunday against a Dolphins defense that has been surprisingly vulnerable this season.
Tight End
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (vs. DET) [DraftKings DFS Value: $2,900]
Remember when Henry caught nine touchdown passes in the long-ago days of last freaking season? Those were good times. It's awfully hard to get excited about a tight end who has five catches for 41 yards in four games, but desperation plays at tight end are all about matchups, and Henry has a good one in Week 5 against the Lions.
Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders (vs. TEN) [DraftKings DFS Value: $3,200]
Thomas' days as an every-week fantasy starter are probably over, especially with the entire Commanders offense in a funk. But Thomas has been targeted at least five times in three of four games ahead of a matchup with a Titans team that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2022.
Week 5 Fantasy Stock Market
Savvy fantasy managers are always looking to improve their roster. It doesn't matter if your team is 3-1 or 1-3. If you're winning, you should be looking to patch any gaps in the roster or planning farther down the road by targeting players whose future looks brighter than the present. If you're losing, you gotta stop the bleeding and get a win by any means necessary.
The waiver wire is one way to do that. But some weeks, the options there don't meet the needs on your roster. Other weeks there's just not much meat on the waiver bone.
That means hitting the open market. Swinging a trade or two. Making like Monty Hall and playing Let's Make a Deal.
As we head into Week 5, here are some players to consider buying and selling.
Buy Low
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Frankly, the time to buy low on Brady was likely last week, before he threw for 385 yards and three scores against the Kansas City Chiefs. But given that he's still just 16th in fantasy points among quarterbacks, Brady might still be available at a reasonable price, especially if he posts a pedestrian stat line in a Week 5 tilt with the Falcons that Tampa should win relatively easily.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Dobbins hasn't exactly impressed this season with his efficiency, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry in two games since returning from an ACL tear. But Dobbins was up to 17 touches last week and scored twice against the Buffalo Bills, and with Justice Hill (hamstring) hurt, that workload will only increase. If you believe in the talent, the time to buy is before Dobbins has a big game.
Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
The 2022 season hasn't gone like fantasy managers hoped with Davis—he had a big Week 1, hurt his ankle and has barely been heard from since. But this is the same field-stretching receiver that so many in the fantasy community tabbed as a breakout candidate in 2022, and with both Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder also hurt Davis could see a sizable bump in target share in the weeks to come.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Given that Pitts has had one decent game in a month, it's fair to wonder if he's ever going to get untracked, especially after just one catch on four targets last week. But Pitts' early-season faceplant has driven his value lower than anyone could possibly have expected, and his talent alone is worth a flier if you can get him at a deep discount. The hamstring injury that has sidelined Pitts this week will only make his fantasy managers that much more desperate.
Sell High
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Goff has had an outstanding start to the season from a fantasy standpoint, and given Detroit's woeful defense, he's probably going to be airing it out quite a bit this season. But Goff wasn't drafted as a fantasy starter—if he was drafted at all. If you have another viable option under center, shop Goff to fantasy managers freaking out about Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Penny was outstanding against the Lions last week, notching 151 rushing yards and scoring twice. But anyone and everyone is running all over the Lions, and prior to last week, Penny was 48th among running backs in PPR fantasy points. If you can get an RB-needy manager to bite on last week's big game, make the deal before this shiny Penny dulls again.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Brown has been great for fantasy managers through four weeks, ranking sixth in PPR points on the season. But that fun could be coming to an end soon. Brown ranks third in targets with 45 and fourth in receptions with 30 in the NFL, but once DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension in two weeks, that target share is going to decrease. Add in Kyler Murray's struggles throwing the ball in 2022, and now is the time to look at moving out of Hollywood.
Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
Everett is off to easily the best start of his professional career, with 16 catches for 211 yards and two scores through four games—numbers that rank him in the top 10 amongst all tight ends. But much of that damage has been done with Keenan Allen sidelined by a hamstring injury. Once Allen returns, Everett's usage and production will probably decrease.
Week 5 Reading the Defense
Some weeks, the matchups that are such a big part of the fantasy value of team defenses are difficult (if not impossible) to predict.
This is not one of those weeks.
The Buffalo Bills are two-touchdown favorites at home against a Steelers team led by a rookie quarterback making his first professional start. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing host to an Atlanta Falcons team with an injury-marred backfield that completed all of seven passes last week against the Browns. The San Francisco 49ers face a Carolina Panthers squad that ranks dead last in the league in total offense.
Those elite defenses are all going to eat this week.
Here's a look at a few other defenses who will join them at the dinner table in Week 5 and a few that will likely go hungry.
Strong D/ST Plays
Dallas Cowboys (at LAR) [DraftKings D/ST Value: $2,500]
The Cowboys aren't getting the run they deserve as an elite defense. Dallas has yet to allow a team to score 20 points this year. The Rams might appear an iffy matchup at first glance, but last week against the 49ers, the Rams gave up seven sacks, a pick-six and scored just nine points. No team allowed more fantasy points to defenses this season.
Denver Broncos (vs. IND) [DraftKings D/ST Value: $3,200]
The Colts finally showed some signs of life last week against the Titans, and the loss of edge-rusher Randy Gregory to a knee injury is a blow to the Denver defense. But the Colts are averaging the fewest points per game (14.3) in the entire NFL, and after four weeks, Indianapolis is surrendering the third-most fantasy points to defenses.
Tennessee Titans (@ WAS) [DraftKings D/ST Value: $3,000]
The Titans aren't a good defensive team, ranking in the bottom eight in both total defense and scoring defense. But recently, the Commanders have been making every defense they face look good. Washington has scored just 18 points over the last two games combined, and the Commanders are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to defenses.
Weak D/ST Plays
Los Angeles Chargers (at CLE) [DraftKings DFS Value: $3,100]
After adding the likes of edge-rusher Khalil Mack and cornerback J.C. Jackson, the Chargers were a trendy fantasy pick in some circles over the summer. But the Bolts rank 23rd in fantasy points this season, and this week, the Chargers face a Cleveland Browns team giving up the fewest fantasy points to defenses.
New England Patriots (vs. DET) [DrafftKings DFS Value: $2,900]
The Patriots have been neither great nor terrible for fantasy managers thus far, ranking 11th at the position in fantasy points. This week's matchup with the Lions leans a lot more toward the latter than the former. Detroit leads the NFL in scoring offense and has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to defenses.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at BUF) [DraftKings DFS Value: $2,400]
The Steelers have long had a reputation as one of the NFL's most feared defenses and have posted the sixth-most fantasy points among defenses to this point. But in news that surprise exactly zero people, the Bills are not a favorable fantasy matchup, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to defenses in 2022.
Week 5 Fantasy Mailbag
Every week during the 2022 season, I'll be pulling a handful of fantasy football questions from the Bleacher Report app and answering them here. Hopefully, those answers will aid not only the managers making the query but others as well.
Have a question you want to have answered? Head on over to the fantasy football section of the app and make with the asking.
Should I start Jared Goff or Russell Wilson?-- @dtrfil
That this is a question at all speaks to how weird fantasy football can be. What's even weirder is that I'm going to go with Jared Goff. and it isn't especially close. Goff has been markedly more productive in 2022 and the absence of Amon-Ra St. Brown didn't seem to negatively impact his numbers last week. Furthermore, he has the better matchup against a Patriots team allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Was offered Saquon Barkley for Austin Ekeler and Chris Godwin. Thoughts? -- @B50301
It would help to see your wide receivers, but provided you have some depth there, this isn't a bad deal. Godwin's durability is a concern, as is Ekeler's usage. He has just one game with 100 total yards, one game with at least 20 touches, and, prior to last week's three-score outburst against the hapless Texans, hadn't found the end zone. Barkley appears fully healthy, and he essentially is the Giants offense. He's the best player in the deal, and getting the best player is usually a good thing.
Pick 3 wide receivers in a .5 PPR. Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Diontae Johnson, Drake London, or Allen Lazard?-- @TommyBoy22
Evans and Kirk are easy calls. Evans is healthy again and back to wreaking havoc in the end zone, and Kirk is still a top-10 receiver for the season despite a down Week 4. Diontae Johnson is a fade in a terrible fantasy matchup with the Bills, so that leaves Allen Lazard in London against the Giants or Drake London against Tampa. The Giants have given up the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, and it's not a stretch to assume the Falcons will be playing from behind against the Bucs. London gets spot No. 3.
Hurting at running back after Javonte Williams went down. Should I start Latavius Murray or Travis Etienne in a PPR? -- @JaxStaxon
This isn't a difficult call. Etienne's usage hasn't been what we'd hoped, recording more than a dozen touches just once in four games. But he gets an outstanding fantasy matchup for backs with Houston's non-existent defense, and we have no idea what Denver's backfield will look like Thursday against the Colts. Etienne easily.
Flex question. PPR. Tony Pollard, Raheem Mostert, Jerry Jeudy, or Elijah Moore? -- @Sam2016
This comes down to either Pollard or Jeudy. Mostert isn't seeing much passing-game usage and keeps having touchdowns vultured by Chase Edmonds, while Moore seems to have fallen behind Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson in New York. Pollard had 100 yards two weeks ago but responded with eight carries for six yards against Washington and is stuck in a split with Ezekiel Elliott. Jeudy found the end zone last week and has a much better fantasy matchup than Pollard, giving the Broncos wideout the nod.
THE Fantasy Bust of Week 5
No one player can make or break an entire season. Even cataclysmic injuries to top-five picks can sometimes be overcome with some waiver wire magic and/or a trade or two.
That grumbling you hear are the people who drafted Kyle Pitts trying to decide whether to start Pitts or Tyler Conklin as they rummage through the liquor cabinet.
However, one player can make or break a week. Get a huge game from the right guy, and a team can cruise. Have a starter lay an egg, though, and it can be game over.
With that in mind, we're going to conclude each edition of the B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football with one player who will define the week to come, for better or worse. The Boom (or Bust) of the Week.
Full disclosure—I have been spectacularly wrong in this space the past two weeks. But if you're going to go down, go down in flames. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Inset cliché here.
This week, it's a bust. One that's almost impossible to sit—and a guy who is going to cost fantasy managers dearly in Week 5.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. SF) [DraftKings DFS Value:
McCaffrey has been on a nice little rip of late, recording three straight games with over 100 total yards. He's also coming off his best fantasy outing of the season against Arizona last week, thanks to nine receptions and his second touchdown of the season.
McCaffrey had more catches than carries in the game, but he told reporters after the loss he thinks the ground game can be fixed easily enough.
"I thought a lot of our called runs, we actually ran it pretty well," he said. "I just think we couldn't take a lot of opportunities because we weren't good enough on third down. We didn't move the sticks. When we were down, we didn't get to the run game because we were in tempo mode. Had to go down and score. Games like that happen."
The problem with that assertion is that this week's opponent will be much harder to move the ball on than Arizona. The 49ers lead the NFC in total defense and run defense, lead the entire NFL in scoring defense and have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Given the sorry state of the Carolina offense, the Niners are going to key on the Panthers' lone real offensive weapon. For McCaffrey to make any hay this week, he'll probably need to pile up dump-offs with the Panthers playing catch-up late.
Looking for fantasy rankings? Check out Gary's Week 5 Big Board!
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Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.