The majority of the NFL's Week 4 games will be played after the calendar flips to October. The air will be crisp. Leaves will be on the ground. Halloween decorations and scary movies will take over for the next four weeks. And football weather will be in full force.
For some teams, their seasons are practically over before they ever really got off the ground.
The middle of the pack is vast. The majority of the league—18 teams—either won zero or only one game through the first three weeks of play. In a handful of instances, certain franchises already look like a lost cause.
While 15 weeks of play remain, these specific rosters simply aren't built to compete at a high level, and their respective general managers and scouting staffs should already have one eye toward the 2023 NFL draft.
Next year's class already looks special with elite talents found at the top, particularly at quarterback after the worst positional class of the last 25 years.
A losing season can be painful in the meantime. However, the worst a franchise can be is stuck in the middle. Five specific teams have a rough few months ahead of them, but they should be positioned well once everyone is fully immersed into the draft cycle.
As of now, the following squads are best positioned, in order, to claim next year's No. 1 overall pick and change their organization's future.
The Houston Texans struggling to start this season comes as no surprise whatsoever. The fact they nearly beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 may be more surprising than Houston's actual 0-2-1 record.
The Texans are in their second year of a strip-it-to-the-studs rebuild. A significant portion of the roster—as in 23 players—aren't under contract beyond this season. The team's building blocks consist of left tackle Laremy Tunsil, right tackle Tytus Howard, guard Kenyon Green, cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and safety Jalen Pitre. The final three were selected in this year's draft class. Rookie running back Dameon Pierce and wide receiver John Metchie III can work themselves into that discussion as well.
Basically, general manager Nick Caserio has a blank slate as the team moves beyond this season.
The starting point is obvious: Quarterback must be addressed.
Davis Mills has gotten an opportunity to show he's a capable long-term option. While it's still early in the process, a winless record so far combined with his limitations as a passer appear to have the team destined toward a quarterback selection with its top pick. Mills' missing ingredient involves an inability to carry the offense, particularly in crucial situations.
As Sunday's loss to the Chicago Bears' showed, the second-year quarterback threw a game-ending interception. To be fair, a Bears defensive lineman tipped the pass, though linebacker Roquan Smith had a bead on the pass from the start and was already driving on the ball to break it up one way or the other.
A season ending with the league's worst record and the first selection indicates Mills hasn't grown beyond what the team saw during his rookie campaign.
Whereas Ohio State's C.J. Stroud now has the inside track to be the first name called once the 2023 NFL draft begins. Last year's Heisman Trophy finalist has been deadly efficient in the Buckeyes' first four games with an impressive 16-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In 16 career starts, the underclassman completed 71.6 percent of his passes. More importantly, the 20-year-old has the requisite size (6'3", 218 pounds), natural throwing ability and unflappable mentality in the pocket to be a true franchise quarterback.
Once the Texans finally have a long-term answer behind center, the entire organization can finally build toward something substantive.
The Seattle Seahawks already experienced their Super Bowl this season when the franchise's prodigal son, Russell Wilson, returned to the Great Northwest in Week 1 and his old team eked out a 17-16 victory. During the subsequent two weeks, the Seahawks looked much closer to the team most expected with the San Francisco 49ers' dominant victory in Week 2 and the inability to topple another bad team Sunday in the Atlanta Falcons (more on them in a bit).
While the divorce between Wilson and the Seahawks seemed inevitable as the two sides grew apart, the organization did what it could do to maximize the return value when trading the franchise's all-time leading passer. Seattle has a pair of first-round picks, though the first is likely the most value since the Seahawks look like a bottom-three squad.
Geno Smith capturing the team's starting spot is a great story after the 31-year-old signal-caller toiled as a backup during the previous seven seasons, including the last three in Seattle. But he's clearly a limited option, who does just enough not to lose his team a game. Then again, Smith doesn't bring much to win his team a game, either.
The 10-year veteran is completing an impressive 77.5 percent of his passes through three games. Yet he doesn't really threaten opposing defenses with his ability to push the ball downfield or to create outside of structure. He's the safe choice.
What the Seahawks really need is a difference-maker behind center.
Interestingly, the franchise could have a similar decision on its hands after drafting Wilson in the third round of the 2012 class. At the time, Wilson didn't fit the prototype. His sub-6'0" standing had other teams completely overlooking one of the most talented quarterbacks in the entire draft. Seattle saw past his shortcomings, and the quarterback greatly rewarded the franchise.
Alabama's Bryce Young has the best feel for playing the position among the entirety of college football. His ball placement, touch, pocket awareness and freestyling make him a dream in most instances. Though his stature is a genuine concern. Wilson was short. He wasn't small, per se. Young is listed at 6'0" and 194 pounds. His slight fame could be an issue when he takes an NFL pounding.
If the Seahawks are concerned about Young, general manager John Schneider could go in the opposite direction with a prospect like Kentucky's Will Levis. The 23-year-old Penn State transfer isn't as polished, but he has all the physical tools the NFL wants in today's quarterback. Levis is a 6'3", 232-pound athlete with one of the nation's strongest arms. He's particularly tough in the pocket. According to Pro Football Focus, Levis entered this weekend's play with the most passing yardage against blitz.
Choices are a good thing, particularly at the quarterback position. The Seahawks must get their next pick right, though, and they have the ammunition with two first-round picks to do so.
Aside from the Cleveland Browns' meltdown during the final two minutes in Week 2, the New York Jets should be 0-3 to start this season.
Surely, Jets faithful will point out that Joe Flacco is the starting quarterback at the moment and Zach Wilson could return next week after suffering a meniscus tear during preseason action. It doesn't matter, for this season anyhow. The squad is young at multiple positions and still a work-in-progress on defense.
The Jets are building and the difference behind center is minimal. Wilson still has to prove he's a capable long-term starter. At least Flacco provides a veteran presence and plenty of experience.
New York has a significantly difficult schedule before its Week 10 bye, too. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills could all be considered favorites to win those contests.
Where the current quarterback setup does matter involves what the Jets front office plans to do after this season. Wilson will get time to show whether he's the guy or not. After all, this regime chose him to be the franchise quarterback with the second overall pick in the 2021 class. As such, another top-three pick will allow the team to look elsewhere and possibly land the true top talent of the class.
Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. is the best player in the nation. He's simply unstoppable working off the edge. Last season, the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year posted a whopping 31 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks. He's already registered 7.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks through the Crimson Tide's first four contests of the '22 campaign. He's as disruptive of a defender as anyone has seen in recent memory. Anderson can set the edge against the run and turn the corner to harass opposing quarterbacks. He's a true elite talent worthy of the top overall pick, though a quarterback or two could sneak ahead of him when it's all said and done.
The Jets may have a lot already invested in their edge defenders with Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers and Jermaine Johnson II. But general manager Joe Douglas can't pass on a talent like Anderson, if available.
Don't let the Atlanta Falcons' first win over the struggling Seattle Seahawks fool you. The Falcons are very much in the mix to be one of the teams near the top of the 2023 draft selection order.
Atlanta's roster does present multiple intriguing talents, though.
Grady Jarrett and A.J. Terrell are stalwarts on defense. The offense is far more intriguing with the weapons the Falcons now feature in tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Drake London. Singularly, these targets are instant mismatches. Together, they're nightmare fuel for opposing defensive coordinators.
The 21-year-old Pitts is a 6'6", 241-pound target with 4.4-second 40-yard-dash speed. His size, speed, athleticism and catch radius make him impossible for safeties or linebackers to cover, if utilized properly. London is the newest addition as this year's eighth overall draft pick. London is a 6'4" threat out wide or from the slot. He became the first rookie wide receiver since Stefon Diggs in 2015 to record five or more receptions and 70 or more yards in his first two professional contests.
Atlanta doesn't have much beyond these names. The problem lies in the fact that the team lacks a quarterback to take full advantage of Pitts and London. They're a dynamic young duo, but they'll never realize their immense potential without a legit triggerman. Marcus Mariota is a placeholder. Maybe third-round rookie Desmond Ridder gets a look later this season. Otherwise, the Falcons will be searching for a quarterback when they're on the board.
The possibilities of Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Alabama's Bryce Young and Kentucky's Will Levis have already been discussed. If the Falcons plan to go all-in with the type of athletes they currently have on offense (including running back Cordarrelle Patterson), a look at Florida's Anthony Richardson may not be out of the equation.
The 6'4", 232-pound Richardson is an exceptional natural athlete. He's raw, and it shows at times. But his traits are exactly what teams want to invest in based on significant upside as both a passer and runner. During Saturday's 38-33 loss to the Tennessee Titans, the Florida quarterback threw for 453 yards and ran for 62 more. Teams are searching for Josh Allen-like ability. Richardson is certainly blessed with the premium physical tools if placed in the right situation under a patient staff.
If the Falcons are worried about Richardson's developmental potential and they're not in a position to draft one of the other quarterbacks, a running mate for Jarrett wouldn't be the worst move. Georgia's Jalen Carter and Clemson's Bryan Bresee are both elite interior defenders capable of collapsing a pocket and regularly playing in an opponent's backfield.
Atlanta is fun to watch based on a few specific individuals, but the team isn't very good overall. Quarterback is the primary question, though help is needed all over the lineup.
Someone has to be the worst in the AFC West. So far, the Las Vegas Raiders claimed the designation with a winless start to the season. In fact, they're the only team to start 0-3 this year. Six teams started 0-3 during the Super Bowl era and still made the postseason, according to the Associated Press' Josh Dubow. So, all is not lost.
But Josh McDaniels and Co. dug a hole for themselves that will be extremely difficult to climb out of considering the division and conference in which they play, plus significant issues can be found along the offensive line and in the secondary.
Certain expectations still exist for the Raiders to be a competent and competitive team. The organization did go out this offseason and add the likes of Davante Adams and Chandler Jones. They're too talented to remain this bad.
The schedule isn't going to let up at any point. Two divisional opponents—the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs—lie ahead. Maybe meetings with the Houston Texans and New Orleans Saints after the Las Vegas' Week 6 bye could help.
From there, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Denver again, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and a second meeting with the Chiefs make up the majority of the season's second half.
If the front five can't properly protect Derek Carr throughout the season and the defensive backline doesn't hold up, a much worse season than expected could realistically occur. Those issues will be at the forefront of what the Raiders look to address next offseason.
Right tackle, in particular, has been a significant issue. The team signed Trent Brown three years ago. He lasted two seasons before being traded back to the New England Patriots. Alex Leatherwood, whom the organization chose with the 17th overall pick in the 2021 draft, turned out to be a complete disaster. The Alabama product didn't even make it to his second season with the organization.
Fortunately, the offensive tackle class is looking stronger at the onset this season than initially projected.
Ohio State has a pair of top-shelf prospects in Paris Johnson Jr. and Dawand Jones. Johnson is a natural left tackle, and the Raiders may be risk-averse to drafting another left tackle prospect, particular near the top of the class, and forcing him to make the move. Jones is a natural right tackle at 6'8" and 359 pounds. He's looked extremely improved this year with exceptional movement skills and more refined technique. The Raiders could also consider Northwestern's Peter Skoronski because he's as technically sound as they come, though he'd be forced to flip sides as well. Penn State redshirt sophomore Olumuyiwa Fashanu is another rising prospect with elite traits.
By finally completing the offensive front, a true foundation can be built for the Raiders organization.