Canelo Álvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin 3: Head-to-Toe Breakdown and Prediction

Out with the Octagon, in with the ring.

Seven days after the UFC staged its monthly pay-per-view show in Las Vegas, boxing fans are descending on the Nevada desert for the presumed final chapter of the prolonged rivalry between Canelo Álvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin.

This will be the third meeting between the middleweights-turned-super middleweights. They first met in September 2017, fought again almost one year to the day later, and they are now set to clash exactly four years and two days after their most recent encounter.

The B/R combat sports team analyzed each main-event principal from head to toe as a primer for the weekend extravaganza. Take a look at what we came up with, and drop a thought or two of your own in the comments.

What: Canelo Álvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin 3

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

When: Saturday, Sept. 17 (ring walks are expected at approximately 11 p.m. ET)

TV: DAZN Pay-Per-View

What's at Stake: Lots and lots.

For those focused on hardware, it's about Álvarez's shelf's worth of belts in the super middleweight division—including the IBF, WBA, WBC and WBO titles—alongside the championship blessings of The Ring.

But for the purists among us, it's more.

The opening bell will officially lift the Álvarez-Golovkin rivalry into boxing's sacred trilogy territory, which is already occupied by such legendary series as Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazier at heavyweight and Sugar Ray Leonard-Roberto Durán from welterweight to middleweight.

Álvarez and Golovkin met at 160 pounds in both 2017 and 2018 and will climb to 168 for this one. Their relationship has changed significantly over the years, too. The first match featured gentlemanly greetings which were replaced by cool stares for the rematch and now by obscenities and proclamations of intense dislike.

Not to mention, neither guy really thinks he's lost yet.

The first fight was declared a split draw after one judge favored Alvarez, one favored Golovkin and a third was dead even. A year later, Alvarez emerged with a narrow majority decision in which he earned a 7-5 edge in rounds on two scorecards while a third was again split down the middle at six rounds apiece.

This is likely the last big event for the 40-year-old Golovkin, who's 42-0 against every other foe.

"The third fight is a risk only for Canelo," Jim Lampley, who called each of the first two fights on HBO PPV, told Bleacher Report. "He is the one with something more to lose.

"It's a vital necessity for Triple-G, and since there won't be a fourth fight, the rivalry will end either as a standoff or a triumph for Canelo."

Nickname: Canelo

Record: 57-2-2, 39 KOs

Height: 5'8"

Weight: 168 pounds*

Reach: 70.5"

Age: 32

Stance: Orthodox

Rounds: 448

All stats courtesy of BoxRec.

*Official weight at last fight in weight class in November 2021.

Nickname: Triple-G

Record: 42-1-1, 37 KOs

Height: 5'10.5"

Weight: 160 pounds*

Reach: 70"

Age: 40

Stance: Orthodox

Rounds: 228

All stats courtesy of BoxRec.

*Official weight at last fight in April 2022.

Neither Álvarez nor Golovkin will remind anyone of Sugar Ray Leonard or Floyd Mayweather. They won't flit around the ring for 12 straight rounds using otherworldly hand and foot speed, and they're equally unlikely to lull one another into a defensive clinic.

Instead, both practice something closer to what Emanuel Steward used to label "power boxing," which employed sound fundamentals such as an effective jab and good footwork along with an aggressive mindset that sought to win a fight rather than not to lose it.

Álvarez has tended to change styles based on the opponent in front of him. He played the patient counterpuncher role in some fights but had evolved into more of a pursuing bully in action at 168 and 175 pounds, although that approach fell flat against Dmitry Bivol in May.

Álvarez used both approaches in stretches across his two fights with Golovkin at 160 pounds, doing well while moving and countering but also succeeding on the front foot. This is Triple-G's first real trip into a weight class that Álvarez has dominated, so it bears watching which style the incumbent champion leans on the most against a familiar but perhaps uncomfortable foe.

A prime Golovkin was technically sound and had the sort of heavy punches that broke down a foe's will to compete over a series of rounds if not with one concussive shot. Now that he's 40 and in a new weight class, whether that will remain status quo is one of the fight's decisive mysteries.

GGG has a strong jab, works well to the body and head and can be just as effective at distance as in close, though his preference is to gradually work into fight-ending punching position.

Advantage: Álvarez

Álvarez's KO percentage is far lower over the course of 61 career fights (63.9) than Golovkin's is over 44 fights (84.1), but that doesn't mean he can't crack. He has knocked out four of his six opponents in the 168-pound class, including prolonged beatings that led to stoppages of Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant as he unified the division in 2021.

He's also erased Rocky Fielding and Liam Smith with single body shots, vaporized Amir Khan with an overhand right and finished James Kirkland with a sweeping right that earned ESPN.com's KO of the Year after their scrap at Minute Maid Park back in 2015.

It's far from his only skill, but there's no denying Álvarez's street cred as a power hitter.

Golovkin's high profile was built on a string of KOs that yielded an absurd 23 straight inside-the-distance wins between an eight-round decision over Amar Amari in June 2008 and a 12-rounder over Daniel Jacobs nearly nine full years later in March 2017.

He, like Álvarez, is adept at punishing both the head and body and has recorded KOs with shots to both areas. YouTube is filled with images of stricken foes recoiling from his punches, many with astonished or agonized looks on their faces.

Neither man has been in danger of an imminent KO in 24 rounds together. But given their shared arsenals, it wouldn't be shocking if this one doesn't go the distance.

Advantage: Golovkin

Just like neither fighter is likely to author a boxing clinic, their third match together isn't likely to remind anyone of defensive wizards Willie Pep or Pernell Whitaker, either.

Against many foes, Álvarez has played boxing's version of an offensive defense, bobbing and moving his head while slipping punches on a world-class level. That forces his opponents to redouble their efforts to connect with meaningful shots, which leaves them open for his counterattacks.

Álvarez pivots and moves with subtly effective footwork as well, which yields angles that allow him to defend and then attack. He's never been dropped and never appeared on the verge of a KO loss even across 24 rounds with Golovkin, not to mention sluggers like James Kirkland and Sergey Kovalev.

Golovkin may not have the subtlety of Álvarez when it comes to defense, but the theme is similar: His opponents are typically too concerned with their own protection to embark on prolonged assaults against him.

He's also never been floored as an amateur or a pro and has opened himself up to shots in the past to bring opponents into range for his offense. When he has been clipped, his chin has held up well against a slightly less menacing grade of power punchers.

Advantage: Even

Álvarez's X-Factor: How Will He Bounce Back?

Álvarez went nearly nine years between his first career defeat against Floyd Mayweather in 2013 and his surprise loss to Dmitry Bivol in a bid for light heavyweight supremacy in May. It'll be interesting to see how he recovers from the infrequent and unexpected adversity.

Golovkin has suggested that the Bivol fight brought Álvarez back to reality and taught him to treat the sport more seriously. That could be a good thing if it's legitimately the case or a bad thing if the heavily favored champion comes in bent on violent revenge.

He's certainly more animated when it comes to his dislike of Golovkin this time around. It's unclear how that increased venom will impact his fight plan, though.

Golovkin's X-Factor: How Much Triple-G Is Left?

The statistics are impressive. The record is nearly without peer. But the Golovkin of 2022 is not the Golovkin of 2017 or 2018.

He's spent the last four years working the B-side of the street with wins over Steve Rolls (KO 4), Sergiy Derevyanchenko (UD 12), Kamil Szeremeta (TKO 7) and Ryōta Murata (TKO 9) and hasn't always looked like the same fearsome destroyer, which has led to the lopsided odds.

Maybe being 40 will matter. Maybe it won't. Either way, he's always in terrific shape and hasn't sustained a lot of heavy punishment, so summoning up one last ride-into-the-sunset effort wouldn't be unprecedented.

It could produce a ring classic.

It's easy to find people who see the series as 2-0, or at worst 1-0-1, in Golovkin's favor.

It's a lot harder to find folks who think he'll win the third one given that Álvarez is eight years younger and seems particularly comfortable at 168 pounds.

There isn't much to separate them in terms of skill level and accomplishment, and their initial 24 rounds have been close and competitive, regardless of whose direction you lean. That leaves the needle to tip this time in the direction of the guy who's been more active and more impressive since their second meeting, which few would argue is Álvarez.

Could Golovkin ratchet things back up now that he's facing a truly elite opponent once again? Of course. And should it surprise anyone if that's what happens? Not at all.

But given the other discrepancies, that's the only case to be made for him. And against a guy as good as Álvarez, that isn't enough reason to go against prevailing wisdom.

Prediction: Álvarez by unanimous decision

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