UFC 279 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Ferguson vs. Diaz
After an unprecedented last-minute schedule change, UFC 279 comes to Las Vegas with a brand new main event between Tony Ferguson and Nate Diaz.
The fight was originally a showcase opportunity for rising star Khamzat Chimaev to fight Diaz in a welterweight bout. However, when Chimaev weighed in at 178.5 pounds for the 170-pound fight, the final three fights of the card had to be reshuffled.
Diaz will still get the spotlight of the main event, but now it comes against Tony Ferguson, who was originally slated for the co-main event.
The new co-main event features Chimaev taking on Kevin Holland in a 180-pound catchweight contest. Li Jingliang and Daniel Rodriguez will now meet in the lead-in to that fight.
Here's a last-minute look at the whole fight card with the latest odds and the burning questions that will determine the winner in the biggest fights.
UFC 279 Schedule, Fight Card and Odds
Main Card (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)
- Nate Diaz (+105; bet $100 to win $105) vs. Tony Ferguson (-125; bet $125 to win $100)
- Khamzat Chimaev (-560) vs. Kevin Holland (-+430)
- Li Jingliang (+125) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (-145)
- Irene Aldana (-175) vs. Macy Chiasson (+150)
- Ion Cutelaba (-205) vs. Johnny Walker (+175)
Prelims (ESPNews/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET)
- Hakeem Dawodu (-210) vs. Julian Erosa (+180)
- Jailton Almeida (-600) vs. Anton Turkalj (+450)
- Jamie Pickett (-135) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+115)
- Chris Barnett (+360) vs. Jake Collier (-450)
Early Prelims (ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)
- Norma Dumont (-380) vs. Danyelle Wolf (+310)
- Alatengheili (-170) vs. Chad Anheliger (+145)
- Melissa Martinez (-175) vs. Elise Reed (+150)
- Yohan Lainesse (+105) vs. Darian Weeks (-115)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Is Tony Ferguson Done?
Nate Diaz was the biggest winner of the schedule shift. He went from a fight against Khazmat Chimaev that he wasn't likely to win to a true toss-up with Tony Ferguson.
If Ferguson looked anything like he did just two years ago, he would be a much bigger favorite. El Cucuy was one of the top contenders in the lightweight division. However, he's on a four-fight win streak, and the last time we saw him he had his lights turned out by Michael Chandler.
It's fair to wonder if Ferguson is shot at this point in his career. Aging isn't always kind to fighters, and Ferguson's last four fights haven't been particularly close.
Still, Ferguson has mostly struggled to defend takedowns, and that isn't something he's going to have to worry about against Diaz. Plus, it isn't as though Diaz is in the prime of his career, either.
Still, he was much more competitive against Leon Edwards last time we saw him than Ferguson was with Chandler.
Prediction: Diaz via third-round TKO
Can Kevin Holland Defend Khamzat Chimaev's Takedowns?
Khamzat Chimaev made life just a little more difficult for himself when he missed weight on Saturday. He was going to get a main event fight against a well-known name and an easy matchup for himself.
Now, he gets a lesser name in Kevin Holland but a tougher opponent. The 29-year-old is a good kickboxer with power to boot and a toughness to absorb punishment while staying in the fight.
The problem is his takedown defense is only 50 percent, per UFC Stats. That's usually good enough because he's adept at working his way back to the feet.
It won't be against Chimaev.
The rising star showed good striking skills in his last fight against Gilbert Burns, but he still makes his money as a relentless pressure wrestler. If he gets Holland to the ground, the Trailblazer is in a lot of trouble.
Holland does have some submission chops, so there's always a chance he latches on to one to pull off the upset. That's not a good enough reason to pick him, though.
Prediction: Chimaev via third-round TKO
Can Daniel Rodriguez Avoid Brawl with LI Jingliang?
The new catchweight fight between Daniel Rodriguez and Li Jingliang shouldn't be overlooked. The two had good chances to win against their well-known opponents before the card mix-up and should put on a good fight.
Jingliang is giving up nearly 10 pounds with the matchup change, but his power should still translate.
Rodriguez has good boxing and likes to fight at a fast pace, but that's always a little bit dangerous against a good power-puncher like Jingliang.
Rodriguez has a path to victory. If the 35-year-old is patient and fights behind his jab, he has the edge as an out-fighter who could point his way to victory.
But if he lets Jingliang get in the clinch or engages in an all-out brawl, it's easy to like Jingliang's power in the matchup. His last four wins have come by way of knockout, and he's never been knocked out in return.
If this fight is a tactical one, Rodriguez could win. If it turns out to be a fast-paced affair, Jingliang should be the favorite.
Prediction: Jingliang via second-round TKO
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