The Biggest NFL Long Shots to Win the Super Bowl Since 2000

The Biggest NFL Long Shots to Win the Super Bowl Since 2000
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12009 New Orleans Saints
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22011 New York Giants
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32000 Baltimore Ravens
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42007 New York Giants
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52017 Philadelphia Eagles
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62001 New England Patriots
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The Biggest NFL Long Shots to Win the Super Bowl Since 2000

Sep 10, 2022

The Biggest NFL Long Shots to Win the Super Bowl Since 2000

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - FEBRUARY 04:  Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles (9) warms up on the field prior to  Super Bowl LII on February 4, 2018, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.   (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - FEBRUARY 04: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles (9) warms up on the field prior to Super Bowl LII on February 4, 2018, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Whenever a new NFL season begins, long shots are dreaming. Pull this upset, topple that rival and grab a fortunate bounce or two, and a championship could become a reality.

Naturally, that doesn't happen often. But there are memorable outliers.

During this millennium, six eventual NFL champions opened the season with Super Bowl-winning odds of +2000 or longer. For those uninitiated with betting lines, that means a $100 wager would pay out $2,000.

The list is ordered in ascending fashion, starting with +2000 and working up to the premier +6000 long shot. All lines are from SportsOddsHistory.com.

2009 New Orleans Saints

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - FEBRUARY 07:  Tracy Porter #22 of the New Orleans Saints intercepts Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts for a touchdown in the fourth quarter during Super Bowl XLIV on February 7, 2010 at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.  (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL - FEBRUARY 07: Tracy Porter #22 of the New Orleans Saints intercepts Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts for a touchdown in the fourth quarter during Super Bowl XLIV on February 7, 2010 at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Preseason Odds: +2000

The asterisk here is the New Orleans Saints quickly became the favorite. That's what happens when a team starts 13-0, you know?

Still, the Saints initially held the 10th-best odds with the Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans.

Interestingly enough, New Orleans entered the playoffs on a three-game skid (even though it was more like two, considering the rest-filled Week 17 lineup). But the Saints, led by quarterback Drew Brees and his three touchdown passes, showed no signs of rust during a 45-14 obliteration of the Arizona Cardinals in the divisional round.

Then, it was Tracy Porter's time to shine.

The veteran cornerback snagged a key interception to help defeat Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings in a dramatic NFC championship overtime win. Porter's pick-six of Peyton Manning sealed the Super Bowl XLIV victory over the Indianapolis Colts as well.

2011 New York Giants

Football: Super Bowl XLVI: New York Giants Mario Manningham (82) in action, making catch vs New England Patriots Sterling Moore (29) and Patrick Chung (25) at Lucas Oil Stadium. Sequence.
Indianapolis, IN 2/5/2012
CREDIT: Heinz Kluetmeier (Photo by Heinz Kluetmeier /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
(Set Number: X86833 TK1 R1 F78 )
Football: Super Bowl XLVI: New York Giants Mario Manningham (82) in action, making catch vs New England Patriots Sterling Moore (29) and Patrick Chung (25) at Lucas Oil Stadium. Sequence. Indianapolis, IN 2/5/2012 CREDIT: Heinz Kluetmeier (Photo by Heinz Kluetmeier /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X86833 TK1 R1 F78 )

Preseason Odds: +2200

The first of two appearances for the New York Giants features Mario Manningham's iconic catch.

Five months earlier, though, the G-Men were basically on the outer ring of the radar. They owned the 12th-highest odds—not terrible but certainly not great—as the 2011 campaign kicked off.

After a 6-2 start, New York dropped five of its next six contests. Only a Week 17 win against the NFC East rival Dallas Cowboys sealed a postseason bid.

Nevertheless, the Giants surged to four straight postseason wins. They downed the Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers to take the NFC, and Manningham's sideline top-tap sparked the upset of the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI.

2000 Baltimore Ravens

UNITED STATES - JANUARY 28:  Football: Super Bowl XXXV, Baltimore Ravens Jermaine Lewis (84) in action, scoring TD after kickoff return vs New York Giants, Tampa, FL 1/28/2001  (Photo by Peter Read Miller/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)  (SetNumber: X62358 TK3 R8 F36)
UNITED STATES - JANUARY 28: Football: Super Bowl XXXV, Baltimore Ravens Jermaine Lewis (84) in action, scoring TD after kickoff return vs New York Giants, Tampa, FL 1/28/2001 (Photo by Peter Read Miller/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (SetNumber: X62358 TK3 R8 F36)

Preseason Odds: +2200

In hindsight, this is no surprise.

One of the greatest defenses in NFL history belongs to the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, who set a league record with a meager 10.3 points allowed per game. Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis won Defensive Player of the Year too.

Dominating the regular season is important, but the Ravens continued their excellence throughout the playoffs.

Baltimore surrendered a combined 23 points to the Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans, Oakland Raiders and Giants. As if that's not impressive enough, the Giants returned a kickoff for a touchdown in Super Bowl XXXV. This defense technically ceded 16 points in four games.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how journeyman Trent Dilfer became a Super Bowl-winning quarterback.

2007 New York Giants

Football: Super Bowl XLII: New York Giants David Tyree (85) in action, making catch using helmet during 4th quarter vs New England Patriots Rodney Harrison (37) at University of Phoenix Stadium. 
Glendale, AZ 2/3/2008
CREDIT: John W. McDonough (Photo by John W. McDonough /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
(Set Number: X79476 TK2 R3 F179 )
Football: Super Bowl XLII: New York Giants David Tyree (85) in action, making catch using helmet during 4th quarter vs New England Patriots Rodney Harrison (37) at University of Phoenix Stadium. Glendale, AZ 2/3/2008 CREDIT: John W. McDonough (Photo by John W. McDonough /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X79476 TK2 R3 F179 )

Preseason Odds: +3000

Avert your eyes if you haven't already, Patriots fans, because it's time to relive David Tyree's helmet catch.

New York had a fascinating season in 2007, winning six straight games following two losses to begin the campaign. After an idle weekend at the midpoint of the season, the Giants nearly alternated losses and wins during a 4-4 stretch. They wrapped up the year at 10-6, well behind the Cowboys and Packers in the NFC hierarchy.

But the playoffs told a different story.

New York eliminated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and then clipped both Dallas with a fourth-quarter comeback and Green Bay in overtime. The magical run seemed destined to fall one victory short, considering the unbeaten Patriots awaited in Super Bowl XLII.

Thanks to Tyree—who also caught a touchdown earlier in the fourth quarter—the Giants pulled off a shocker. Plaxico Burress brought in a last-minute score from Eli Manning set up by Tyree's helmet catch, sealing New York's improbable 17-14 triumph as 12.5-point underdogs.

2017 Philadelphia Eagles

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - FEBRUARY 04:  Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles (9) makes a touchdown catch during Super Bowl LII on February 4, 2018, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.   (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - FEBRUARY 04: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles (9) makes a touchdown catch during Super Bowl LII on February 4, 2018, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Preseason Odds: +4000

It's difficult to be considered a more average team in the preseason than this.

Six squads, including the Philadelphia Eagles, shared +4000 championship odds in early September. Relative to the rest of the NFL, they occupied the 13th to 18th spots on the list. That is smack in the middle of the 32-team league.

Philly didn't stay there for long.

Carson Wentz put together an MVP-level performance until a torn left ACL ended his season in December. Nick Foles stepped into the lineup and—despite a shaky end to the 13-3 campaign—ascended to legendary status.

Though the Eagles just sneaked past Atlanta in the divisional round, they steamrolled the Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC crown. Philly followed that up with 538 offensive yards in the 41-33 victory over the Patriots in Super Bowl LII.

While the most memorable play is Foles' touchdown catch on the Philly Special trick play, he connected with Zach Ertz for the game-winning 11-yard score late in the fourth quarter.

2001 New England Patriots

Football: Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots QB Tom Brady (12) in action, making pass vs St. Louis Rams at Louisiana Superdome.
New Orleans, LA 2/3/2002
CREDIT: David E. Klutho (Photo by David E. Klutho /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
(Set Number: X65094 TK2 R3 F31 )
Football: Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots QB Tom Brady (12) in action, making pass vs St. Louis Rams at Louisiana Superdome. New Orleans, LA 2/3/2002 CREDIT: David E. Klutho (Photo by David E. Klutho /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X65094 TK2 R3 F31 )

Preseason Odds: +6000

This championship came out of nowhere. And even if a lucky fan picked the Patriots—who arrived with the sixth-worst Super Bowl odds in the league—they probably didn't expect it with the quarterback who oversaw the Super Bowl XXXVI win.

At the time, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady were simply a losing coach and a backup quarterback. Belichick owned a 41-55 record, while Brady had attempted just three passes as a rookie in 2000.

That all changed in a massive way in 2001—and it happened because of a serious chest injury to starter Drew Bledsoe.

Brady replaced the longtime QB and played the caretaker role quite well. The defense-powered Pats allowed just 17 points per game in the regular season and then kept the Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers and St. Louis Rams to 17 points or fewer during the playoffs.

As a 14-point underdog, New England stunned the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams on Adam Vinatieri's 48-yard field goal as time expired.

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