Fantasy Football 2022: Examining Expert Mock Drafts After Preseason Week 3

With the start of the 2022 NFL season only a week away, many fantasy leagues have already conducted their drafts. Many, however, will wait until the final weekend before the opener, and there's a good reason for this: Knowledge.

Injuries happen during the preseason, and good players are inevitably released. New England Patriots rookie second-round receiver Tyquan Thornton, for example, suffered a fractured clavicle and is expected to miss six-to-eight weeks, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. Veteran running back Marlon Mack was released and signed to the Houston Texans practice squad.

Drafting late gives managers a clearer picture of the fantasy landscape than they would have at the start of the preseason.

For those who are drafting late, it's time for a little last-minute preparation. We're here to help by diving into some of the latest fantasy mock drafts from around the web. We'll examine what some of the experts are thinking and try to uncover any notable trends coming out of the preseason.

We'll begin our analysis by examining one of the most unique mocks out there. CBS Sports conducted a 12-team point-per-reception (PPR) mock involving numerous fantasy experts from CBS Sports, NFL Network, FantasyPros, The Athletic and other outlets.

As CBS Sports' Jamey Eisenberg explained, the draft is a league that's part of the CBS Sports Draft-A-Thon to raise money for the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.

"You will not find a better 12-team, PPR mock draft heading into the busiest Fantasy Football draft weekend of the year," Eisenberg wrote. "I promise you. This. Is. It."

Perhaps the only real early surprise came when Chris Harris of Harris Football took New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara with the No. 12 selection then landed Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris with the next pick.

Harris has largely been trending as a mid-first-round pick. Kamara, who has an average draft position (ADP) of 14, has been trending as a second-rounder.

San Francisco wide receiver Deebo Samuel lasted until the third round—Andy Holloway of Fantasy Footballers took him 26th overall—which may seem surprising after Samuel's breakout 2021 campaign. However, there seems to be a general belief that Samuel won't carry the ball as much as he did last season, which hurts his fantasy ceiling.

Texans rookie running back Dameon Pierce went in the fourth (Adam Rank, NFLN), and his draft stock is on the rise. In addition to Mack, Houston also released Royce Freeman.

Pierce was drafted ahead of veteran backs like Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins, which is a good indication that experts are indeed high on the Florida product.

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Round 1 Recap

1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

3. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

4. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

5. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

6. Darrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

7. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

8. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

9. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

10. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

11. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills

12. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

A group of 12 analysts and writers from The Athletic conducted a half-PPR mock involving eight-player teams. Rosters consisted of a QB, two RBs, three WRs, a TE and a flex player and no bench.

Things got off to an interesting start in The Athletic's mock when Renee Miller took Harris first overall.

"With pluses and minuses for each of the top backs, from health concerns to QB/offensive or time-share concerns, Harris comes out looking like the highest-floor guy to me," Miller wrote. "Even if his snap count dips a bit from last season, he is still one of the best receiving threats out of the backfield in the league,"

This shows how opinions in Harris are split—he was a second-rounder in the CBS mock—which may have a lot to do with Pittsburgh's QB play. With Mitch Trubisky and/or Kenny Pickett under center this season, there's no guarantee that Harris will be as involved in the passing game as he was with Ben Roethlisberger.

As a runner last season, Harris was purely a volume player. He amassed 1,200 yards on the ground but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. Volume is great in fantasy, but in leagues that award bonuses for longer plays, Harris is less enticing. As Miller pointed out, though, Harris should have a high floor.

Another interesting takeaway here is that Arif Hasan waited until Round 6 to draft a receiver—an odd choice in any sort of PPR format. However, Hasan explained that receiver depth drove the decision.

"I am generally pretty comfortable waiting on receiver, and this year in particular there seemed to be more value in the draft later on than there typically is," Hasan wrote.

Indeed, there does seem to be a wide group of middle-tier receivers who can be found later in drafts. In the eighth and final round of this mock, for example, Hunter Renfrow and Adam Thielen were both available.

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Round 1 Recap

1. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

2. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

4. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

5. Cooper Kipp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

6. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

7. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

8. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

9. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders

10. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

11. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

12. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

The ESPN staff took a different approach to its mock drafting by doing a 12-team, PPR superflex mock. For those unfamiliar with superflex, it's a format that allows a second quarterback to slot into the flex. It's similar to a two-QB format, though running a second quarterback isn't mandatory.

Unsurprisingly, quarterbacks went much earlier in this mock than they would in a traditional draft. Nine of them went in the first round, with Buffalo Bills signal-caller Josh Allen being the first overall selection.

However, Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey was the second overall pick. It's clear that analysts believe he's ready to bounce back after two injury-plagued seasons. McCaffrey has been a top-three selection in all three mocks that we've examined.

It's also clear that many believe that Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor will replicate his 2021 success. The second non-QB to go in this superflex mock, Taylor was a top-two selection in the other two mocks.

Los Angeles Rams wideout Cooper Kupp was the first receiver off the board and the third non-QB to go in Round 1. This isn't a huge surprise after Kupp led the league in receptions and receiving yards last season. He's three-for-three as the first wideout off the board in the mocks we've examined.

Perhaps the biggest surprise here is that Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews went ahead of Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (both in Round 3). Both Andrews and Kelce will serve as de facto No. 1 receivers in 2022, but Kelce has regularly been fantasy's top-scoring tight end.

At 32 years old, however, Kelce's time at the top could be nearing its end.

Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb was a fourth-round selection here. While this roughly equates to a third-round pick in a non-superflex draft, it still feels low after Chubb was a second-rounder in the CBS mock and a first-rounder in The Athletic mock.

Chubb's projected value seems to be all over the place, which isn't a total shock. His production will depend heavily on Cleveland's use of backups Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson—with rookie Jerome Ford potentially in the mix.

While Chubb is the centerpiece of the Browns offense, Cleveland's RB depth makes him a bit of a boom-or-bust draft target.

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Round 1 Recap

1. Josh Allen, RB, Buffalo Bills

2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers.

3. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

4. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

5. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

6. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

7. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

8. Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

9. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

10. Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos

11. Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

12. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

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*ADP from FantasyPros.