Fantasy Football 2022: Predicting This Year's Biggest Draft-Day Steals

Fantasy football leagues are won and lost by managers' ability to find value. Everyone in your league knows the top names who will be drafted in the first round. The key is uncovering the hidden gems who will wind up being league winners.

That all starts with the best part of fantasy football: The draft.

While you can certainly find value through trades and the waiver wire, the biggest opportunity is always going to be in the draft.

With draft season officially upon us, now is a great time to look at average draft position (ADP) and identify some players who are going to crush those expectations this season.

Let's dive in.

All ADP data is from Fantasy Fooball Calculator and based on a 12 team point-per-reception (PPR) league. All scoring data via FantasyPros based on PPR scoring from Weeks 1 to 17.

ADP: Ninth round, seventh pick (QB14)

Trey Lance's average draft position is nearly identical to where Jalen Hurts was last season. The Philadelphia quarterback was being picked in the ninth round as the 12th quarterback off the board, making him a borderline starter for most managers.

He delivered in a big way with a QB7 finish on a points-per-game basis. Much of that finish was buoyed by his rushing production. He was just OK as a passer, but he added 784 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

Lance has the ability to deliver a similar season for the same reasons. The second-year quarterback is a gifted runner, and the surrounding talent in the 49ers offense is better than what Hurts had to work with last season.

Jimmy Garoppolo was able to average 16 fantasy points per game in a 49ers offense with no rushing upside. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, he has plenty of high-quality options in the passing game.

Now add in that Lance rushed for over 1,000 yards in his only full season as a college starter and he averaged 12 rushing attempts and 60 yards on the ground in his two starts last season and you have the recipe for a starting caliber quarterback you can find in the ninth round.

ADP: 11th round, eighth pick (TE13)

This pick is all about volume and touchdown regression.

Kmet is being taken as a borderline starting option as a tight end, but his volume is going to be consistent enough that he could surpass that ceiling. Last season, Kmet showed a ton of improvement by more than doubling his yardage output in his second season in the league.

The Notre Dame product saw 93 targets and became a security blanket for Justin Fields.

Now, the Bears don't have Allen Robinson II and brought in a number of new receivers to round out the position. Fields will have to build chemistry with Velus Jones Jr. and Byron Pringle along with whoever else emerges.

That chemistry already exists with the tight end, and we saw it in a bit of preseason action. According to Next Gen Stats, Kmet saw seven snaps in the Bears' second preseason game, and he ran four routes, was targeted three times and had an average separation of 3.7 yards.

Now consider that Kmet finished as TE21 last season despite not scoring a single touchdown. Touchdowns are key to fantasy football production but are volatile. There's typically a regression to the mean, so it's safe to assume that Kmet won't go another season without scoring despite a large share of targets.

If Kmet even scored five times it would have moved him up seven spots in the tight end rankings.

ADP: 10th round, second pick (WR44)

Kadarius Toney did just enough to show off his tantalizing potential as a rookie. His 10-catch, 189-yard game against the Dallas Cowboys after six catches for 78 yards against the Saints was a two-game stretch that fantasy managers should keep in mind during drafts.

Unfortunately, injuries and an inconsistent role hurt Toney's overall fantasy value last season. He only saw action in 10 games, and he saw four targets or less in six of those games.

The opportunity bit should change with a new coaching staff in place.

“I’ve told you from day one, I’ve been very happy with KT, his approach, how he is as a person, first and foremost, because that’s what matters to me," new head coach Brian Daboll told reporters in regards to Toney. "We’ve seen him in college. We evaluated him. He has a tremendous skill set."

Toney has dealt with a leg injury during training camp but reportedly looks good and is on track to play in Week 1.

That could be huge as the Giants' receiving hierarchy is still under construction. Kenny Golladay has reportedly struggled in training camp, so the WR1 role is Toney's for the taking.

ADP: Third round, 12th pick (RB19)

Fantasy managers who were willing to pay the early second-round price to draft Najee Harris were rewarded last season. The rookie running back finished the season as RB3 in PPR leagues despite playing behind an iffy offensive line.

The Pittsburgh Steelers used the 24th pick on him in the 2021 NFL draft and utilized him accordingly. He was a workhorse back who lived up to the hype with 1,200 yards rushing and 74 receptions.

Travis Etienne was drafted just one spot behind him in the NFL draft. Now, he's healed from the foot injury that cost him his season and could have a similar impact in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars offensive line isn't the best, but it's worth noting that James Robinson was 11th in yards before contact last season.

Speaking of Robinson, the Jaguars' other back is working his way back from a torn Achilles that ended his season last year. It's a tough injury to come back from, and head coach Doug Pederson told reporters he wants to "gradually increase his reps".

So while he might be a factor by Week 1, it sounds like it will be Etienne who is getting most of the work.

Etienne has built-in chemistry with quarterback Trevor Lawrence from their days together at Clemson. Expect him to be a big part of the passing game with volume in the running game to be a consistent RB1 option despite his draft status.

ADP: N/A

Isaiah Likely is a bit of a deep sleeper. Because Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP only accounts for 16 rounds worth of players, he doesn't even have an ADP.

That's not likely to be the case much longer. Likely has been a training camp star, and he cemented his excellent preseason with eight catches for 100 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens' second preseason game.

That wasn't just at the end of the game against third-stringers, either. He was in from the start.

Coach John Harbaugh took notice, but he wasn't surprised.

"We expected him to be a really good player," Harbaugh said, per the team's website. "To be honest with you, I'd say he's exactly what we expected. He's had some opportunities, he's made the most of them."

Likely's involvement is huge as the Ravens still have a lot of questions in regard to their passing game. Mark Andrews is the top target, and Rashod Bateman is expected to see increased volume after the team traded away Marquise Brown.

There aren't a whole lot of answers after that, though. The rookie tight end might just be the best bet to become a legitimate third option in the Ravens offense.

You could do a lot worse with a late-round draft pick. If Likely can take over a big slot role, he could wind up becoming a reliable starting option.

ADP: Seventh round, 10th pick (WR33)

Those who have been burned by JuJu Smith-Schuster in the past are going to need to practice some forgiveness. The former Pittsburgh Steelers receiver is in a completely different situation than his last few years.

Smith-Schuster was a fantasy football star in 2018 when he broke out with 111 catches, 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns. Unfortunately, injuries, the decline of Ben Roethlisberger and a shaky offensive line have caused him to miss that ceiling in subsequent years.

Last year, was especially difficult. He missed all but five games and didn't thrive with what was left of Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback.

Now, the 25-year-old gets to play with Patrick Mahomes in an offense that is going to have to figure out life without Tyreek Hill.

There are a ton of high-quality targets up for grabs in Kansas City. While Skyy Moore could definitely be a factor, there's certainly an advantage to the experience Smith-Schuster brings to the table.

Head coach Andy Reid noticed the chemistry between Mahomes and Smith-Schuster early in camp. That's a great sign the receiver is going to outperform his ADP easily.

ADP: 10th round, fourth pick (QB15)

Kirk Cousins finished as QB11 last season, making him a low-end starting option with a respectable 19 points per game.

That was with Cousins playing in an offense that was 19th in pass rate and had a defensive coach in Mike Zimmer at the helm.

In 2022, Cousins will be at the helm of an offense orchestrated by new head coach Kevin O'Connell. If Justin Jefferson is to be believed, it's a move that is going to benefit the passing game.

"Our offensive style, it's not a run-first offense anymore," Jefferson said, per Kevin Patra of NFL.com. "Just us being able to put different people in different positions and distribute the ball, really. I'm so excited in this offense."

The Vikings have everything they need to be one of the most explosive offenses in football. Jefferson is a special talent, Dalvin Cook can do it all as a three-down back, and Adam Thielen has become a reliable red-zone target.

Cousins might not be the most exciting pick in the world, but he's an efficient quarterback who is going to have some big weeks with all of the weapons at his disposal. He's a near lock to finish higher than his current draft slot.

ADP: Sixth round, eighth pick (RB31)

In 2020, Kareem Hunt actually led all Cleveland Browns running backs in PPR fantasy points.

Nick Chubb was the real-life lead back in the offense, but Hunt's work in the receiving game was enough to help him finish as RB8 just one season ago. So there's already proof the Browns offense can support two starter-worthy running backs.

With Deshaun Watson serving an 11-game suspension, the Browns will have to turn to Jacoby Brissett. According to FantasyPros, Brissett ranked 39th and 42nd in big-time throw rate in his last two seasons as a full-time starter.

That means more dump-offs and a quick passing game in which Hunt is featured as a receiver could be in the Browns' future.

The other possibility is that Hunt isn't even on the Browns by the end of the season. The running back reportedly requested a trade early in training camp and wants a new contract, but the Browns declined.

If a team like the Eagles were to wind up trading for the back, there are plenty of teams that could use him as their featured runner and receiver out of the backfield.

That would only make him an even bigger steal.