Biggest 'Upset Watch' Games for the 2022 College Football Season

College football teams know that one loss can cost them a shot at winning a title.

Of course, there are some losses—upsets—that hurt their chances more than others.

Before the season begins, it's fun to look ahead to matchups that have upset potential. Sometimes, a Group of Five team's victory over a Power Five program constitutes an upset. Other times, non-conference games or conference tilts fit this category, too.

This list of "upset watch" games in 2022, which is in chronological order, was compiled with a variety of factors in mind.

That included when the game is played—with an emphasis on early-season games since it's hard to predict how teams will look later in the season.

While sizing up the schedule, I found opportunities for unranked or lower-ranked teams to upset College Football Playoff contenders. I also took into account where the game will be played, as it's harder to win on the road than at home.

Odds via DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.

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The teams in italics will be on upset watch for these road games:

• Sept. 1: Penn State at Purdue
• Sept. 10: Baylor at BYU 
• Sept. 17: Pitt at Western Michigan
• Sept. 17: Michigan State at Washington 
• Sept. 17: Georgia at South Carolina
• Oct. 1: Texas A&M at Mississippi State 
• Oct. 15: Clemson at Florida State
• Oct. 29: Ohio State at Penn State
• Nov. 12: Alabama at Ole Miss

These two programs are in very different places. Utah finished 2021 as the Pac-12 champion and fell 48-45 in the Rose Bowl to Ohio State. Head coach Kyle Whittingham and the Utes recorded their second double-digit win season in three years.

Florida, meanwhile, finished 6-7 with a loss to UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl. Head coach Dan Mullen was fired Nov. 21, a day after a 24-23 overtime loss at Missouri. The Gators hired Louisiana's Billy Napier, their fourth head coach since Urban Meyer's departure after the 2010 season.

Utah is a CFP contender with quarterback Cameron Rising as well as 1,000-yard rusher Tavion Thomas. The Utes return six defensive starters from a unit that ranked 28th nationally in total defense.

Florida returns 13 starters from last season. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Richardson made one start, against Georgia, in 2021. He threw for 82 yards with two interceptions in that game, so he'll have to improve if the Gators want to pull off this upset.

Utah has the edge talent-wise, but it's still just a two-point favorite against Florida. Opening the season on the road in a humid environment will be tough. We'll see how the Utes handle it.

It's rare for Alabama to play an early non-conference road game. In fact, it hasn't done so since 2011, when the Crimson Tide beat Penn State 27-11.

Typically, Alabama opens with a big neutral-site game. But in 2022, Bama will host Utah State before traveling to Austin for a Week 2 matchup with Texas. The Tide are favored by 16 points, but this game has plenty of intrigue.

The Longhorns went 5-7 in Steve Sarkisian's first season as head coach. But Sarkisian, who was on the Alabama staff in 2016 and again from 2019-20, landed big names in the transfer portal this offseason. The biggest was quarterback Quinn Ewers, a former 5-star recruit who spent last season with Ohio State. Former 4-star receiver recruit Agiye Hall also transferred from Alabama.

Ewers is competing with sophomore Hudson Card for the starting job. Whomever wins it will have plenty of experienced complementary players around them: leading rusher Bijan Robinson and leading receivers Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington.

Nick Saban lost twice last season to former assistants. Texas A&M's Jimbo Fisher was the first to ever accomplish that feat, and then Georgia's Kirby Smart did it in the CFP National Championship Game. Could Sarkisian be the third?

USC has garnered major buzz this offseason with the hiring of head coach Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma. Riley, who went 55-10 over five seasons, brought a lot of talent with him to Los Angeles, too.

The biggest name to follow Riley to Southern Cal was quarterback Caleb Williams, who threw for 1,912 yards and 21 touchdowns with four interceptions in seven starts last season.

By far the biggest get for Riley and the Trojans in the transfer portal was receiver Jordan Addison from Pitt. The reigning Biletnikoff Award winner had 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns last season.

But USC would be wise to not overlook Fresno State at home. The Bulldogs finished 10-3 last season, and senior quarterback Jake Haener threw for 4,096 yards and 33 touchdowns with just nine interceptions.

The Bulldogs have a familiar face in new head coach Jeff Tedford. He was also the head coach from 2017-19 and went 26-14 before stepping down for health reasons. Don't be surprised if this is a close one.

It's no secret that Clemson had an uncharacteristically bad season under Dabo Swinney last year. The Tigers finished 10-3 but missed out on the ACC Championship Game and CFP for the first time since 2014.

But the Tigers are expected to rebound and be national contenders once again. Nine starters return on offense, including quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. He struggled last season, and Swinney could go with former 5-star recruit and true freshman Cade Klubnik. Clemson gets back six starters on defense.

Unlike Clemson, Wake Forest had a historic 11-3 season in 2021, winning its second Atlantic division title. The Demon Deacons return 13 starters.

But the biggest question about this game is the status of junior quarterback Sam Hartman. On Aug. 10, the school announced Hartman—who threw for 4,228 yards and 39 touchdowns with 14 interceptions last season—would be out for "an extended period of time" because of "a non-football related medical condition."

Wake head coach Dave Clawson told reporters Hartman would return this season. If he plays this game, the Deacs will have a much better shot to pull off an upset. In the meantime, Wake Forest will turn to backup Mitch Griffis.

Arkansas hasn't beaten Alabama since 2006. But this might be the Razorbacks' best shot to break that streak. The Hogs' 42-35 loss in Tuscaloosa last season was their closest defeat since a 14-13 setback in Fayetteville in 2014.

The Razorbacks have drastically improved under head coach Sam Pittman, who is entering his third season. Following a 3-7 mark in 2020, Arkansas went 9-4 last season. It was the best finish for the Hogs since their 11-2 mark in 2011. Arkansas returns seven starters on offense, including standout quarterback KJ Jefferson.

Even after losing the national title game to Georgia last season, Alabama (+175) is the favorite to win it all in 2022. On Monday, the Tide checked in at No. 1 in the preseason Associated Press poll for the ninth time in program history.

They return just five starters on offense and seven on defense—but that's typical for the NFL draft machine that is Alabama. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young is back at quarterback, and linebacker Will Anderson Jr., winner of the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, will have that unit in good shape.

It's hard to beat Alabama any day. But since Arkansas gets Bama at home after a close loss last season, this matchup is one to keep an eye on.

These teams met last season in the Big Ten title game, and Michigan dominated Iowa 42-3. But this matchup will look quite different. The Hawkeyes went 6-1 at home last season, and the Wolverines haven't won at Kinnick Stadium since 2005.

Michigan will look to repeat as Big Ten East champions in 2022. But it returns just four starters on defense from a unit that allowed 17.4 points per game. The return of quarterback Cade McNamara is big. But replacing 1,300-yard rusher Hassan Haskins will be a tough task.

Iowa returns quarterback Spencer Petras and six other starters. On defense, that includes linebackers Jack Campbell and Seth Benson. The two led the team with 245 combined tackles last season.

After facing Iowa, Michigan still has to face Penn State and Michigan State in Ann Arbor and Ohio State in Columbus. A loss at the Hawkeyes wouldn't knock the Wolverines out of the Big Ten race, but if Michigan drops a second conference game, a repeat CFP appearance will be unlikely.

Notre Dame is a CFP contender in 2022 under new head coach Marcus Freeman. He was elevated from defensive coordinator to replace Brian Kelly in December.

Getting past fellow independent BYU will be crucial for the Fighting Irish to preserve their playoff hopes. These two programs have met just eight times, starting in 1992. Notre Dame holds a 6-2 edge in the series, and this will be the first matchup since 2013.

The Cougars had consecutive double-digit win seasons in 2020 and 2021. They return eight starters on offense—including quarterback Jaren Hall and leading receiver Puka Nacua—and all 11 on defense.

This game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas and will be a much longer trip for Notre Dame. The Irish have a tricky schedule, so losing to BYU would hurt. Aside from this tilt, Notre Dame visits Ohio State in Week 1, hosts Clemson on Nov. 5 and finishes the season with a trip to USC.