Final 2022 WNBA Power Rankings and 1st-round Playoff Predictions

It was a bittersweet week in the WNBA, the end of the 2022 regular season, but also the end of Sylvia Fowles' WNBA career. While the Lynx had a shot at making one of the final couple of playoff spots heading into the last week, the schedule overwhelmed them, as they lost to the Seattle Storm and Connecticut Sun.

The loss to the Sun frustrated many WNBA fans and confused media members because the Sun had nothing to play for Sunday. Connecticut head coach and general manager Curt Miller inserted his starters back into the game with 3:43 left in the fourth quarter with an 80-74 lead over the Lynx, which then led to Connecticut closing and winning 90-83. I wrote about Fowles' career last month after she dunked and made a three in her final WNBA All-Star Game. Lynx head coach and general manager Cheryl Reeve is correct when she said postgame, "There will never be another Sylvia Fowles."

The Lynx's loss punched the Phoenix Mercury's playoff ticket, but they will be without Diana Taurasi and possibly Skylar Diggins-Smith (more on that later). And then the Liberty found a way to qualify at home against the Dream in a battle of grit with a ton of fouls and clutch performances from Marine Johannes, Stefanie Dolson and Natasha Howard.

In the following slides are my final power rankings followed by my first-round playoff predictions.

The Las Vegas Aces impressed, which moved them up to the top spot, while the Los Angeles Sparks disappointed. While the Indiana Fever ended the season on an 18-game losing streak, they showed a lot more fight and a direction toward the future this final week than the Sparks did.

1. Las Vegas Aces (26-10) (↑ 2 Spots)

2. Chicago Sky (26-10) (↓ 1 Spot)

3. Connecticut Sun (25-11) (↓ 1 Spot)

4. Seattle Storm (22-14) (No Change)

5. Washington Mystics (22-14) (↑ 1 Spot)

6. New York Liberty (16-20) (↑ 2 Spots)

7. Dallas Wings (18-18) (↓ 2 Spots)

8. Phoenix Mercury (15-21) (↓ 1 Spot)

9. Atlanta Dream (14-22) (↑ 1 Spot)

10. Minnesota Lynx (14-22) (↓ 1 Spot)

11. Indiana Fever (5-31) (↑ 1 Spot)

12. Los Angeles Sparks (13-23) (↓ 1 Spot)

The Big Question: Will Skylar Diggins-Smith play?

It is already well known that Diana Taurasi will miss time because of a quad injury, which she explained was a muscular Grade 2 tear. Her timetable has also been revealed: around a month, which means Taurasi will miss the entire first round. But what about Skylar Diggins-Smith? While the team clarified last week that Diggins-Smith's absence didn't include the postseason, head coach Vanessa Nygaard wasn't sure about her status when she was asked after the Mercury's 82-67 loss to the Sky on Sunday. She didn't rule her out.

The Matchup That Matters: I'd imagine Nygaard will employ Brianna Turner to guard MVP contender A'ja Wilson. Turner has proved she can limit Wilson and has an astute understanding of her tendencies. During last season's semifinal series against the Aces on October 3, Turner helped limit Wilson to eight points on 2-of-14 shooting in an 87-60 Phoenix blowout win. But remember, Turner will be without Brittney Griner and former head coach Sandy Brondello this time around.

Prediction: If Diggins-Smith makes an appearance in this series, I say the Mercury swipe a game and then get a boost from their raucous fanbase, the X-factor, to make the third game close. But if Diggins-Smith doesn't play, the Aces should sweep the Mercury easily, as they will be facing a team without much depth that's much less talented.

Aces win regardless, but it will be much closer if Diggins-Smith plays.

The Big Question: Which bench has the most impactful series?

The New York Liberty are almost a younger and inexperienced version of the Chicago Sky. The similarities between how the two teams function is fascinating. Both operate with a lot of ball and player movement and carry long and versatile players with multiple skill sets. The way in which the Liberty defeated the Dream on Sunday should put the defending champions on their toes. To beat the Liberty isn't just to beat Sabrina Ionescu, especially with Betnijah Laney gaining her footing each game and Marine Johannes coming off a masterful shooting display. But the Sky's depth is what has made head coach and general manager James Wade the front-runner for Executive of the Year. Remember, the Sky have three WNBA Finals MVPs.

The Matchup That Matters: Ionescu and Kahleah Copper are players whose teams' identities are shaped around their individual skill sets. Ionescu is an exceptional shooter who has excellent court vision. Copper is one of the most athletic players in the league and is lethal when she gets her feet into the paint. The difference in the way they play is also how these teams differ in style and identity. The keys will be how well Ionescu handles defensive pressure on Sky traps and how well Copper shoots since the Liberty are likely to focus instead on preventing her from slashing.

Prediction: The Liberty have been in a rhythm leading into the postseason. Head coach Sandy Brondello has once again found a way amid a ton of adversity to bring her team to the postseason. She'll give Wade quite a challenge as she did in last season's WNBA Finals.

While the Liberty will earn an opportunity to host their first playoff game since 2017, Sky in three.

The Big Question: Can the Dallas Wings out-shoot the Sun?

Both teams can score in the paint. Dallas will employ 6'7" center Teaira McCowan against the trio of Alyssa Thomas, Jonquel Jones and Brionna Jones. But the Wings hold an advantage over the Sun in guard play and perimeter shooting. In the last four games of the regular season, Dallas made 8.8 threes per game to Connecticut's 6.3. Allisha Gray and Marina Mabrey will play major roles in this series, especially if the Sun plan to double McCowan at all times.

The Matchup That Matters: Since Arike Ogunbowale has been sidelined following core muscle surgery, head coach Vickie Johnson has leaned into McCowan's dominance. The Wings' identity has shifted from playing different styles to running through McCowan. Satou Sabally has missed 13 straight games with an ankle injury, so it will be fascinating to see how Sun head coach and GM Curt Miller approaches McCowan. Will Sixth Player of the Year front-runner Brionna Jones start instead of DeWanna Bonner? Could Jonquel Jones essentially play the 3? How creative will Miller get?

Prediction: The Sun are much more experienced in the playoffs, having reached at least the semifinals in three consecutive seasons. The Wings franchise hasn't won a playoff game since it moved to Dallas (0-3) and has played just one since 2018.

I've had questions about the Sun's perimeter defense all season. What happens when Connecticut's skilled post defenders—Thomas, Jonquel Jones and Brionna Jones—are focused on containing McCowan? How well will smaller guards Natisha Hiedeman and Courtney Williams fare against bigger and more physical guards in Gray and Mabrey, who have gotten more opportunities in the rotation with Ogunbowale out?

Will the Sun put Bonner, a larger wing, on Gray or Mabrey? Probably not. According to PBP Stats, Connecticut has a much worse defensive rating when Bonner is on the floor (98.9) than when she's off it (92.9).

Mabrey will exploit the absence of defensive extraordinaire Jasmine Thomas, who has been out since May with a torn ACL. But the more experienced team will prevail. Sun in three.

The Big Question: How much will home court matter?

The Storm have averaged a league-best 10,632 fans per game, according to Across the Timeline. They and their city are hungry to get Sue Bird a fifth title in her final season. Both the Storm (13-5) and Washington Mystics (12-6) have played considerably better at home. They are probably the most evenly matched opponents in the first round with net ratings separated by a mere 0.1 (Seattle leads). Both teams have potent defenses, future Hall of Famers at power forward (Breanna Stewart and Elena Delle Donne) and solid leadership at point guard (Bird and Natasha Cloud). Both teams have deep benches.

The Matchup That Matters: WNBA fans will get a playoff series they've wanted for years. These teams faced off in the 2018 Finals, but Delle Donne had suffered a knee injury late in Game 2 of the semifinals, and then the Storm swept the Mystics. In 2019, she won her second MVP award and led Washington to the title while Stewart missed the season with an Achilles injury. Delle Donne didn't play in 2020 and played only three games in 2021. Now, at last, two of the best power forwards in the league will go head-to-head. Who will shoot with the most efficiency, and who will defend the other with the most savvy?

Prediction: This series will be about minor details, such as who shoots better, which defense is most awake and even which team handles the opposition's home crowd with the most poise.

The winner will be determined by which team is hungrier for a championship. Storm in three.