Overreacting to the Latest MLB Hot and Cold Streaks Around the League

We all understand baseball is a streaky game. The season is long, data is immense and trends are fun to follow, especially when they help construct narratives.

Beyond just following, overreactions are as good as it gets. This is the point of the season, about 40 percent of the way through, when observers have a better sense of what's real or fake.

That doesn't have to stop us from good overreactions when looking at some of MLB's hot and cold streaks.

Finally, Buxton is putting it all together. Injuries are not holding him back, which means he gets to show his ultimate power-speed combination.

Apparently, Buxton has not given much thought to what his ceiling might be when fully healthy.

Instead, we're getting to see it for ourselves, or at least glimpses.

As The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman noted earlier this week, Buxton has the longest home run streak (45) without grounding into a double play since double plays across baseball were officially tracked in 1940.

Buxton has embraced being a line-drive hitter, and it's working for him. His swing-take numbers show he's making better decisions at the plate, and he's also a lot better at hitting fastballs.

Still, the Twins are carefully managing Buxton, their 2012 No. 2 overall pick who's only played more than 92 games once in his career and continues to play through knee soreness.

As expected, Freeman has been an outstanding addition to an already loaded Dodgers squad this year. He is one of their most consistent hitters, with an .816 OPS while slashing .286/.372/.444 through 62 games.

But to hear Freeman tell it, he still hasn't played his best baseball. The .816 OPS would be his lowest since 2012, and the 13 games so far in June represent his worst month of the season (.602 OPS).

Freeman was also revealing in how differently he approaches at-bats with runners on base, versus bases empty, which is evidenced by the numbers.

He's slashing .224/.293/.315 with the bases empty. With a runner at first, it jumps to .400/.449/.711. With runners on second and third, he is slashing .750/.800/.750.

Alvarez is the best hitter over the last two-plus weeks. From May 29-June 14, he led MLB in average, OPS (on-base percentage and slugging), hits and RBI.

He hit three doubles, a triple, five homers and 18 RBI with a .561 on-base percentage in that span.

After Wednesday's game against the Texas Rangers, Alvarez has reached base safely in 16 straight games.

His six-year, $115 million extension seemed like a good deal for the Astros when he signed it earlier this month. It might end up being a great one.

The Astros ranked ninth in OPS (.724) as of Thursday. Alvarez's OPS is 1.027.

For three years, Alvarez has operated in the shadows of Houston's core World Series players of Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman.

No more.

This is the Astros' best offensive player for the foreseeable future.

The Brewers recently lost eight games in a row, and they're 2-8 in their last 10.

They don't look like the class of the NL Central as once presumed. After an impressive month offensively for Milwaukee in May, when the Brewers were top-five in OPS, the slump has been steep.

Three of the first seven games this month were shutouts against Milwaukee, and the OPS has been bottom-five through 14 games in June.

If there is a great team in the NL Central, it's yet to fully reveal itself. Both Central divisions are the only ones with every team carrying a losing record against teams with winning records.

The Brewers are 13-18 against such teams, and their expected win-loss record is a couple of games below their actual record.

A series against the Cincinnati Reds this weekend should be welcomed.

Remember early in the season when it looked like Semien had lost his power?

He slugged .217 in April and then .320 in May, with just one home run in the two months combined (47 games).

In June, he is slugging .567, more in line with his dominant season from a year ago. He has five home runs in 14 games this month.

Three of those homers came in a seven-hit day against the Cleveland Guardians. It took him 44 games for his first home run for Texas. He's hit five in just 10 games since then.

Rangers fans can breathe a sigh of relief, for now, that the seven-year, $175 million investment in Semien does not appear to be in vain.

A popular and relevant topic on Houston sports radio these days is what happened to the MVP-level Bregman from 2019.

He dealt with soft tissue injuries that slowed him down in 2020 and 2021. But this year, he's healthy and available for every game.

Yet he is posting career lows in nearly every relevant statistic.

He's been especially bad against lefties, slashing .163/.280/.275 against them this season. Compare that to 2019, when Bregman finished second to Mike Trout in AL MVP voting and slashed .350/.443/.742 against lefties.

This is especially important considering how the heart of the Astros' lineup has changed since 2019 with the emergence of left-handed hitters Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.

Bregman bats third for Houston, usually between the left-handed Michael Brantley and Alvarez.

There's no way around Bregman's underperformance in this area. The Astros' ceiling is limited if he doesn't get better.

Quietly, the Padres have won eight of their last 10 games. It was good enough to give them a half-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in a division that somehow is even better than last year.

Joe Musgrove is a leading NL Cy Young candidate, boasting the second-lowest ERA (1.59) and sixth-lowest WHIP (0.92) in baseball.

Their overall pitching in the National League is rivaled only by the Dodgers, as the Padres have given up the second-fewest hits among NL teams.

Across baseball, only the Dodgers and Yankees have a lower opponent batting average, but the pitching has been good all year for San Diego.

The difference now is the offense. In May, the Padres had the lowest OPS (.636) in the National League. Only the Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics were worse that month in the majors.

The first half of June has been an entirely different story, with San Diego seventh in OPS (.786).

Whenever Fernando Tatis Jr.'s left wrist fracture finally heals, watch out for the Padres.

The Tigers didn't have huge expectations entering this season, but there was a belief they could be closer to a .500 team after winning 77 games last year.

Instead, they have taken a clear step back. The Tigers are projected to win fewer games, and their offense is historically bad.

They have the lowest OPS in baseball (.590). Only the hopeless Pittsburgh Pirates and Oakland Athletics have fewer hits.

Detroit's 2.68 runs per game would be the lowest mark since integration in 1947, per FanGraphs.

Considering the Tigers increased their payroll by $47 million over last year, highlighted by signing Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez to lengthy and lucrative deals, plus including top prospect Spencer Torkelson on their Opening Day roster, this is a massively disappointing early return on the investment.

The defending World Series champions hold the longest active win streak in baseball with 14 straight.

For all the attention to their division rivals in New York and Philadelphia, Atlanta is right there poised to make another run at a title, especially with the expanded postseason format.

As a team, only the Yankees held a higher OPS or had hit more home runs as of Thursday. Atlanta held the lead in slugging over the Yankees.

Austin Riley is right there with Byron Buxton and Pete Alonso, looking up at Aaron Judge for the home run lead.

It's an elite offense, and the pitching is solid too.

They're so hot right now, B/R's Joel Reuter jumped them in his power rankings 10 spots from No. 13 to No. 3, trailing only the two teams in New York.

No one has more home runs than Aaron Judge this year, and only Paul Goldschmidt has a higher OPS.

Judge is having a monstrous contract year, once again playing at an MVP level. This is what happens when you bet on yourself, stay healthy, and you're as good at baseball as Judge.

Remember, he is still playing this season without a contract. He's asked for $21 million, while the Yankees countered with $17 million. His arbitration case is set for next week.

The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal seems to think it's in the Yankees' best interest to reach a pre-arbitration agreement, at the very least to keep the relationship positive with their best player.

That's an overreaction a lot of us can understand. Don't bother negotiating now, rather save it for later, and even then, be kind. It's Aaron Judge.