Buying or Selling Hottest Takes From Celtics vs. Warriors 2022 NBA Finals Game 1

We're at the height of overreaction season in the NBA.

And in the wake of the Golden State Warriors' 120-108 loss at the hands of the Boston Celtics on Thursday, the hot takes are running rampant.

The overwhelming majority of pre-series bets were placed on the Warriors. Both Bleacher Report and ESPN picked them to win the Finals, and confidence in those picks probably grew during a first quarter in which Stephen Curry scored 21 points on 7-of-9 shooting.

But Boston's defense stayed the course and landed just enough jabs in the first three quarters to open Golden State up for the haymaker in the fourth.

The Celtics entered that frame down 92-80, but they went 9-of-12 from three in the final 12 minutes, outscored the Warriors 40-16 and flipped the series on its head.

Naturally, it got people talking. And with two full days and change between now and Game 2, it's time to sort through takes and decide which ones to buy and which ones to sell.

Prior to the NBA Finals, a whopping 22 NBA playoff games had been decided by at least 20 points (Boston and Golden State had four and three, respectively). That's over a quarter of the total games played this postseason.

In the conference finals alone, over half of the games were decided by double figures.

In Game 1 between the Celtics and Warriors, though, it became clear we have a great matchup on our hands.

Despite Curry going ballistic in the first quarter, you could see and trust the philosophical approach of the Celtics. With the defensive versatility of their top seven players (the starters, Derrick White and Grant Williams), they'll be able to switch all over the floor. And that almost entirely neutralizes Golden State's off-ball movement and screening.

But there are certainly some potential adjustments to be made. First and foremost, the Warriors might have to run a little high pick-and-roll with Curry and Draymond Green. Al Horford and Robert Williams III are better equipped than most bigs to handle that switch, but that would at least keep them out of the paint and hopefully create some better driving (or drive-and-kick) lanes.

The Warriors might also have to play Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga in an effort to counter some of the Celtics' athleticism (which looked overwhelming at times on Thursday).

Golden State will figure something out. Boston isn't likely to shoot 21-of-41 from three again. Despite the 40-16 fourth quarter in Game 1, these squads still feel evenly matched.

What makes this series so fun is contrasting styles (styles make fights, after all) and the fact that team basketball is the priority for both sides.

Agreed, Zach Lowe. After a lead-up that included way too many snoozers, it was fun to see a back-and-forth battle between two world-class heavyweights.

The Celtics took the first round of the fight. They might have even scored a knockdown, but this is far from over.

Verdict: Buy

In his postgame press conference, Draymond Green (who was 2-of-12 from the field with six fouls and three turnovers) did his best to downplay the bright green tidal wave that hit Golden State in the fourth quarter.

That take drew some heat on social media, but what is Green supposed to say? We're cooked. There's nothing we can do to counter.

Overconfidence is not ideal (and that may be what's happening here), but confidence itself is critical. With three championships under his belt, Green has every right to feel confident.

As far as the take itself, though, Golden State isn't "fine."

"Defensively, the Celtics match up better than others because of their ability to switch with length and/or good lateral quickness at every position," A. Sherrod Blakely wrote for Bleacher Report before the series tipped. "Golden State is used to opponents matchup-hunting Stephen Curry, but Boston's bevy of playmakers will make hiding him a lot harder."

All of that played out just as predicted in Game 1. After abandoning drop coverage against Curry, switching worked, especially in the second and fourth quarters. Boston's ability to attack from three or four different positions on any given possession had the Warriors' defense reeling.

Even when the Warriors were leading, you could see their fairly significant disadvantage on the size and athleticism front.

As former Dallas Mavericks executive Haralabos Voulgaris said on the Bill Simmons Podcast after the game, the Celtics look like the better team on both ends of the floor.

Golden State still has experience and the series' most explosive offensive weapon on its side, but this suddenly feels like Boston's series to lose.

Verdict: Sell

Al Horford went for 26 points on 9-of-12 shooting (including 6-of-8 from three), six rebounds, three assists and a steal in Game 1, but this is hardly his first big performance of the postseason.

After Thursday, he's averaging 12.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.1 threes and 1.5 blocks and trails only Jimmy Butler and Luka Doncic in playoff wins over replacement player.

The resurgence of the 36-year-old big man has to have the Philadelphia 76ers (who thought it was a good idea to play him with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons) feeling sick.

Most everyone else has to be enjoying this, though. After years as the steady backbone of feel-good Atlanta Hawks teams that always flamed out in the playoffs, Horford finally has a shot at a title in his 15th season.

And if he wins that, will it be time to start talking about his Hall of Fame candidacy?

Gripes about the cheapening of an induction are fair. "Everyone gets in now" is a common criticism. But even the stingiest analysts might have to admit Horford's case is better than expected.

In the regular season and playoffs combined, Horford has 14,898 points, 8,945 rebounds, 3,635 assists, 1,301 blocks and 874 steals. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki are the only players in NBA history to match or exceed all five marks. Add three-pointers to the mix, and the list narrows to just Dirk and Al.

Of course, that's an overly simplified way to make a Hall of Fame case. There are more variables than raw totals of the game's most basic stats. But those numbers, combined with five All-Star appearances and a crucial role for a championship team would be hard to ignore.

Verdict: Buy

Alright, now it's time to add some real spice. And who better to do that than one of the original maestros of hot take-istry.

After scoring 21 points on 7-of-9 shooting in the first quarter, Curry went 5-of-16 for 13 points over the final three frames. In the final six minutes of the game, his play inspired six question marks and a bunch of capital letters from Skip Bayless:

Regarding the specific stretch referenced by Bayless, Curry went 0-of-3 (the whole team was 2-of-8 in the final six minutes). The first shot was a contested runner. The second was a decent look from three, the kind he'd drilled in the first quarter. By the time he missed his third shot (a layup), the result had already been decided.

Going scoreless in such a critical stretch of the game is obviously far from ideal, but it didn't look as though he was hiding from the action. He just missed some shots. Getting more might be up to Steve Kerr.

Curry is unselfish to a fault. When things start slipping away, he's less prone to seize control of individual possessions than some of his superstar peers. With three championships, the love of plenty of teammates and a laundry list of other accolades, it's hard to nitpick his approach.

Against this particular defense, though, Kerr might have to throw some of the system out and just let Curry run pick-and-roll.

After Thursday, he's now 12-of-36 in the final six minutes of fourth quarters or overtimes in the 2016, 2019 and 2022 Finals, but Boston's ability to switch screens and cover almost the entire floor may force him to try to buck that trend.

Verdict: Sell that Curry shrank, but buy that he needs to adjust.

Draymond's final statline looks terrible. It was already shared earlier in the slideshow, but it bears repeating here: four points (on 2-of-12 shooting), 11 rebounds, six fouls, five assists, three turnovers and two steals.

His unreliability as a shooter could absolutely be a problem against this defense, especially when he's sharing the floor with 38-year-old Andre Iguodala.

Boston clearly isn't concerned with the range of either player, and that makes it much easier for the Celtics to guard the other three guys.

On Thursday, Green and Iguodala shared the floor for six minutes of the second half, and Boston won those minutes 21-12.

His own poor shooting aside, the problem probably isn't Draymond, though. Before the Celtics' onslaught in the fourth, all his non-scoring contributions were helping. Prior to the fourth quarter, he was a game-high plus-19 (he finished at minus-1). Without the Iguodala minutes, he still would've been on the right side of the plus-minus line.

What Golden State simply can't afford to do in this series is play Draymond with another non-shooter. That's easier said than done, of course. It might mean 45-plus minutes each from Curry and Thompson. But to get the full benefit of Green's defense and playmaking, he almost has to be the only shooting liability.

Verdict: Sell that Draymond is the problem, but buy that he probably can't play with Iguodala.